tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-175009302024-03-23T18:24:23.833+00:00Dean Bubley's Disruptive WirelessDean Bubley's Disruptive Wireless: Thought-leading wireless industry analysisDean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comBlogger1303125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-72668540777467817242023-10-12T13:16:00.001+01:002023-10-12T13:16:00.137+01:006G won't wait. Will traditional MNOs still be the main customers when it arrives?<p><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><b>T</b></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">his post originally appeared in September 2023 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_connectedbritain-6g-5g-activity-7110531638383505408-4Nnj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">One line I heard yesterday at <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=connectedbritain&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7110531638383505408">#ConnectedBritain</a> that really struck me came from <a data-attribute-index="1" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/bt/">BT Group</a> Network/Security head Howard Watson during his keynote.<br /><br />He was hoping <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7110531638383505408">#6G</a> arrived later rather than earlier, "For the Brisbane Olympics, not LA", ie 2032.<br /><br />This is not the first time I've heard an MNO exec expressing a desire to let <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7110531638383505408">#5G</a>
run longer, before 6G prompts more Capex and infrastructure changes.
They want to get payback on existing investments before thinking about
the next round.<br /><br />This is unsurprising. The industry itself now
recognises that it overhyped 5G before launch, and completely forgot to
mention that it would arrive in phases, with all the "cool stuff" really
only arriving in later versions, with the features in 3GPP Releases 16,
17 & 18.<br /><br />Instead, we started with 4G++ (ie non-standalone
5G, with sometimes higher speeds but not much else) and then the first
versions of "proper 5G" with the Release 15 standalone cloud-native
core. <br /><br />5G SA gives somewhat lower latency, and some rudimentary
QoS and other features, but it's far from the ubiquitous millisecond /
gigabit / slicing nirvana that everyone promised in 2018. <br /><br />I was skeptical from the beginning - and I'm still a "slice denier". (I think <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=networkslicing&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7110531638383505408">#networkslicing</a>
remains a critical strategic error and distraction for the industry).
But my view is that the really useful stuff in 5G, such as
time-synchronous networking, RedCap and vertical-specific elements such
as FRMCS for railways, are still a long way from mainstream.<br /><br />So I
can understand that MNOs look at the proposed 6G timeline of 2030, and
think "we're still making heavy work of moving to cloud-native 5G
standardalone. How are we going to do successive iterations of R15 SA,
R16, R17, R18, R19... and make money, all within 6 years?"<br /><br />[Note:
technically 6G should start with Release 21, but based on past
experience we'll see R20, or maybe even R19, marketed as 6G by some
MNOs]<br /><br />There is a possible uncomfortable answer that's starting to
get discussed quietly. What if 6G isn't primarily about MNOs, at least
at first?<br /><br />6G will happen in 2030, one way or another. The world's
universities and R&D labs aren't going to down tools for two years,
while MNOs are still trying to "monetise" 5G. There will be a bunch of
technologies and standards that get called IMT2030 / 6G. <br /><br />There might even be multiple standards, either because of geopolitics leading to regional versions, or because my niggling of <a data-attribute-index="6" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ieee/">IEEE</a> and <a data-attribute-index="8" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/wi-fi-alliance/">Wi-Fi Alliance</a> eventually prompts them to submit a candidate 6G technology (<a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7110531638383505408">#WiFi</a> 9 or 10, I guess).<br /><br />So
the question then becomes - will traditional MNOs be the main buyers of
6G in the 2028-2030 timeframe? Or will it be enterprises, new-entrant
and niche MNOs, infracos, neutral-hosts, satcos, governments and others
building greenfield wireless networks?<br /><br />Is the failure of 5G to
live up to inflated expectations actually going to be the pivot point
for the (slow) demise of the legacy MNO model? Are we watching <a data-attribute-index="11" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=pathdependency&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7110531638383505408">#pathdependency</a> effects in play?</span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8KSXTC-EOYdzO2QSAFZoWlMm-WqYotHObrOTv99tNlVSZsjm9jGDrgj1mXgHedLzc-aEPXiXtUxA91tazknBT0PUQJQTqSVLO141H249nibVGLnCv3yFuaIeAgWZfQvomKLe0_ejSKq9YUCTU1LUfnoe1BK3LpyWD4Z9Bn4ACuQ3M-O-i_VXv/s744/fork%20in%20road.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="744" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8KSXTC-EOYdzO2QSAFZoWlMm-WqYotHObrOTv99tNlVSZsjm9jGDrgj1mXgHedLzc-aEPXiXtUxA91tazknBT0PUQJQTqSVLO141H249nibVGLnCv3yFuaIeAgWZfQvomKLe0_ejSKq9YUCTU1LUfnoe1BK3LpyWD4Z9Bn4ACuQ3M-O-i_VXv/s320/fork%20in%20road.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-2074048568512188912023-10-10T13:13:00.001+01:002023-10-10T13:13:00.140+01:00Overlapping private networks - an emerging challenge for spectrum management<p><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><b>T</b></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">his post originally appeared in September 2023 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_5g-spectrum-neutralhost-activity-7112812683275472896-dQlH?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><div class="feed-shared-update-v2__description-wrapper
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<span><span dir="ltr">File this one under “high quality problems”!<br /> <br />We’re
starting to see a trend towards multiple enterprise private 5G networks
on the same site, or very close to each other. That has a lot of
implications.<br /><br />Various large campus-style environments such as
ports, airports and maybe business parks, industrial zones and others in
future, will need to deal with the coexistence of several
company-specific <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7112812683275472896">#5G</a> networks. <br /><br />For
instance, an airport might have different networks deployed at the
gates for aircraft turnaround, in the baggage-handling area for
machinery, across the ramp area for vehicles, in the terminals for
neutral host access, and in maintenance hangars for IoT and AR/VR. <br /><br />Importantly,
these may be deployed, owned and run by *different* companies - the
airport authority, airlines, baggage handlers and a contracted indoor
service provider, perhaps. In addition there could be other nearby
private networks outside the airport fence, for hotels, warehouses and
car parks.<br /><br />This is something I speculated about a few years ago
(I dug out the slide below from early 2020), but it is now starting to
become a reality.<br /><br />This is likely to need some clever coordination in terms of <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=spectrum&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7112812683275472896">#spectrum</a>
management, as well as other issues such as roaming/interconnect and
perhaps numbering resources such as MNC codes as well. It may need new
forms of <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=neutralhost&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7112812683275472896">#neutralhost</a> or multi-tenant setups. <br /> <br />Yesterday I attended a workshop run by the UK’s <a data-attribute-index="3" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/uk-spectrum-policy-forum/">UK Spectrum Policy Forum</a>.
While the main focus was on the 3.8-4.2GHz band and was under Chatham
House rule (so I can't cover the specifics), one speaker has allowed me
to discuss his comments directly. <br /><br /><a data-attribute-index="5" data-entity-type="MINI_PROFILE" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/ACoAAAASQXgBMywa-z2bo2PJjP7x7Bdmv6nsiro">Koen Mioulet</a> from European private network association <a data-attribute-index="7" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/euwena/">EUWENA</a>
gave an example of the Port of Rotterdam, which has 5 different
terminals, 3000 businesses including large facilities run by 28
different chemical companies. It already has two <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=privatelte&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7112812683275472896">#PrivateLTE</a>
networks, and 5G used on a "container exchange route" for vehickes,
plus more possible networks on ships themselves. It is quite possible to
imagine 10+ overlapping networks in future. <br /> <br />While the UK has
400MHz potentially available in 3.8-4.2GHz, some countries only have
50-100MHz for P5G. That would pose significant coordination challenges
and may necessitate an "umbrella" network run by (in this case) the Port
Authority or similar organisation. An added complexity is
synchronisation, especially if each network is set up for different
uplink/downlink splits for specific applications.<br /><br />MNOs could be
involved too, in roles from wholesale provision, down to just spectrum
leasing. Whatever happens, regulators and others need to start thinking
about this.<br /><br />In the past I’ve half-jokingly suggested that a new
6G target metric should be to have “1000 networks per sq km” rather than
the usual “million devices per sq km” or similar. <br /><br />Maybe we
should start with 10 or 100 nearby networks, but that joke is now
looking like a real problem, albeit a healthy one for the private
cellular industry.</span></span></span></div><div class="update-components-text relative update-components-update-v2__commentary " dir="ltr"><span class="break-words
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Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-72170246567501252042023-10-09T13:10:00.001+01:002023-10-09T13:10:00.148+01:00Enterprise 5G - evolving bottom-up from small islands, not top-down from national networks<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on September 29 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_privatewireless-5g-industry40-activity-7113223261613608960-ayK9?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">While the broad concept of <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=privatewireless&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7113223261613608960">#privatewireless</a> seems to be getting a lot more awareness in the wider tech industry, some of the implications haven't quite fully landed yet.<br /><br />I've had a couple of meetings recently where there was still a prevailing view that <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7113223261613608960">#5G</a>
evolution would continue to be "top-down", with major MNOs setting the
agenda, especially for enterprise. The belief is that national
"umbrella" networks would address all the various localised
applications, such as <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=industry40&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7113223261613608960">#industry40</a> and <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=smartagriculture&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7113223261613608960">#smartagriculture</a>, or <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=v2x&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7113223261613608960">#v2x</a> networks along roads.<br /><br />Such
a set-up would mean that the network "mothership" would need all sorts
of cloud-native elements for orchestration, security and control
systems, both at the telcos and their clients, which would be a boon for
vendors expecting a direct correlation with the promised $xxx billions
of 5G value, coming from URLLC capabilities, slicing and other features.<br /><br />But
what is happening is much more bottom-up. The most cutting-edge uses of
5G are happening at specific locations - whether that is standalone
networks at factories, or new <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=neutralhost&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7113223261613608960">#neutralhost</a>
deployments in offices and hotels (more on NH's in my next post btw).
We can expect Release 16/17/18 features to appear at a micro level, long
before they're switched on for the macro domain. <br /><br />And while
these small local networks are sometimes being deployed by MNOs, they
are often based on dedicated infrastructure, perhaps using different
vendors to the main umbrella national networks. It's often the B2B units
running the show, with a variety of partners, rather than the central
core network team. <br /><br />Other small islands are getting their
networks built by integrators, towercos & infracos, inhouse teams,
industrial solutions suppliers and assorted others. It's very
heterogeneous.<br /><br />And each island can be *small*. A port's 5G
network might have huge value for the site's operator, but only have 100
SIMs in cameras and vehicles. There might be redundancy, but it won't
need a datacentre full of kit. There's often going to be a lot of
customisation, and unique combination of applications and integrations
with other systems<br /><br />So if you're a vendor pitching umbrella-grade
solutions, you might need to rethink how to re-orient towards small
islands instead.</span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
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"><span><span dir="ltr">Yesterday I followed the <a data-attribute-index="0" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/mobile-ecosystem-forum/">Mobile Ecosystem Forum</a> stream of its <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=rcsworld&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115249679121936384">#RCSWorld</a> conference, on <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=rcs&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115249679121936384">#RCS</a> <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=messaging&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115249679121936384">#messaging</a>, especially business messages. I thought it was time to get an update.<br /> <br />As
regular followers know, I’m a long-time critic of RCS. I saw it
announced in 2008, wrote reports & advised telco clients about its
many problems in 2010-2013, called it a zombie tech in 2015 (“28
quarters later”) and have been sniping at it ever since, including at
Google’s acquisition of Jibe and its attempt to turn it into Android’s
equivalent of Apple <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=imessage&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115249679121936384">#iMessage</a>. <br /> <br />Some
flaws have been addressed (it finally uses E2E encryption), while
Google’s tightening control of its features has maybe fixed its “design
by committee” paralysis and historic fragmentation. Google is now
hosting the whole application for many MNOs, rather than telcos relying
on (and paying for) in-network IMS integration, but with an implicit
threat of end-running them if they don’t support the services to
customers.<br /><br />There's about 1.2bn phones with RCS active - mostly Google <a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=android&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115249679121936384">#Android</a>
but also about 200m in China. This has been driven by its adoption as
the default messaging client on new phones, rather than by consumer
download. <br /><br />I didn't hear any stats on genuine active use - ie beyond just using it as a pseudo-<a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=sms&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115249679121936384">#SMS</a>/MMS
app because it's the default. Numbers always seem to be monthly MAUs
rather than meaningful DAUs. No anecdotes of teenagers who swapped from
FB / WA / iMessage / WeChat / TikTok / whatever because RCS is cooler
with better emojis, birthday greeting fireworks or cat-ear image
filters.<br /> <br />To be fair, the conference name was misleading. Almost
the entire event was about RCS Business Messaging (RBM) rather than
personal or group messaging. It was about targeted marketing campaigns
(that’s spam to most of us), customer interaction with so-called
“brands”, multichannel whatnot, and blather about engagement and
“digital” marketing<br /><br />Apparently A2P revenues for SMS are
flattening, but the addition of "rich" interactive in-messaging customer
experience functions will reignite growth. One operator in the audience
asked why the same forecasts have been shown (and not come true) for
the past 4-5 years. Apparently it's too complex for most developers. <br /><br />So
the big innovation is "basic RCS" with 160 characters. SMS with a brand
logo, a verification tick and read receipts. It's aiming at the <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=cpaas&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115249679121936384">#cPaaS</a> market to get more devs/marketers onto the first rung & hope to catalyse more fancy use-cases later.<br /> <br />IMO this is why <a data-attribute-index="9" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/apple/">Apple</a> isn’t going to support it anytime soon, despite <a data-attribute-index="11" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/google/">Google</a>'s
cringey social media exhortations. The notion RCS is a standard for P2P
messaging is a smokescreen. It’s an ad & CRM platform, not an SMS
replacement or default way to chat with friends. It’s not going to be
the messaging equivalent of USB-C chargers & forced on Apple by the
European Commission<br /> <br />In a nutshell, it’s still a zombie. But now
it’s a zombie in a suit spamming you with ads and "engagement" while it
eats your brain</span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKX47rKHs6l12b10uQiQ7OjNJtC_WhJPodRR10sJtmyrHwhyphenhyphenp1O1eSVlh8x-alziDH7wg060IEyJjBFoR9DJLJf-9ALcj3S6g5bdHk2EfVqVmRzU_Eoklbr0vYQiXn2u5FWqvuRcGl2wzKWYVvwZsQEO7ACvMkffXhd8mdPtHiEogISO4NKeQE/s703/disruptivedean_zombie_wearing_a_suit._holding_a_mobile_phone_c763b551-fd37-4adf-8f93-facb3bd6106d.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="703" data-original-width="703" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKX47rKHs6l12b10uQiQ7OjNJtC_WhJPodRR10sJtmyrHwhyphenhyphenp1O1eSVlh8x-alziDH7wg060IEyJjBFoR9DJLJf-9ALcj3S6g5bdHk2EfVqVmRzU_Eoklbr0vYQiXn2u5FWqvuRcGl2wzKWYVvwZsQEO7ACvMkffXhd8mdPtHiEogISO4NKeQE/s320/disruptivedean_zombie_wearing_a_suit._holding_a_mobile_phone_c763b551-fd37-4adf-8f93-facb3bd6106d.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr">.</span></span></span></span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-83921856727800183112023-10-07T13:01:00.004+01:002023-10-07T13:01:00.153+01:00Train connectivity - is passenger Wi-Fi too linked to rail portals' needs?<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on Oct 5 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_5g-frmcs-wifi-activity-7115618912917938178-FtdF?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week) <br /></span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr">It's always interesting to attend
non-telecom industry events. Too often, we breathe our own smoke.
Visiting another sector's conferences gives better perspective. Often,
networks are less important than we imagine for "verticals".<br /><br />Yesterday I chaired the Connectivity stream of the <a data-attribute-index="0" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/world-passenger-festival/">World Passenger Festival</a>
conference in Vienna, an event primarily for the rail industry, plus
other forms of transport mobility. The speakers in my breakout covered
Wi-Fi access onboard trains and at stations, plus how to manage video
traffic. 5G was covered for on-train network backhaul, neutral-host
provision and possible use-cases like AR-enabled tourism & urban
mobility V2X safety for buses and bikes. <br /><br />The rest of the
conference and show floor was about passenger experiences more
generally. Ticketing, sleeper trains, coordination with other types of
transport, train-based tourism and so on. Plenty of talk about apps and
"transformation" more broadly, but the network wasn't a priority.<br /><br />There was also a rather muddled main-stage keynote on <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115618912917938178">#5G</a>
by Accenture, with 2018-era references to millisecond latencies,
network slicing and autonomous vehicles. It conflated normal MNO 5G with
the long-promised critical-comms rail variant <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=frmcs&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115618912917938178">#FRMCS</a>
and bizarrely suggested they would coexist on converged, virtualised
networks. A later chat on their booth with a more knowledgeable
colleague gave a lot more clarity & agreement on the realities &
drivers of operational connectivity for future rail - especially
enabling ECTS (European Train Control System) for higher capacity on
rail networks.<br /><br />The rail industry is at the apex of a trend I
discussed in a recent newsletter article and post - the need for
customers to have reliable access to smartphone apps for ticketing,
journey-planning, at-seat entertainment and catering etc. Travellers
need to download passes, make payments and use QR codes.<br /><br />This explains why so much of the on-train <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115618912917938178">#WiFi</a>
strategy is linked to apps and portals, and much less to general
wireless infrastructure, whether MNO or dedicated trackside/FRMCS. <br /><br />Some
rail Wi-Fi teams view cellular as a cost (for backhaul) or a rival that
stops passengers seeing the portal and info/monetisation offers, when
they directly access the Internet from phones. They filter or cache
video use to reduce cost and congestion. One even tries to dissuade
passengers from using cellular, to save 4G/5G network capacity for the
train!<br /><br />In my view, there is both too much "joined-up" thinking
and too little. It's either 5G maximalism ("we don't need Wi-Fi on
trains") or it directly links connectivity to the rail operator's own
priorities, rather than passengers' real Internet access needs and
expectations.<br /><br />What is needed is integration in the right places
and layers. Shared trackside masts and fibre, plus hybrid connectivity
to trains from public 5G, trackside dedicated networks (including <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=private5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7115618912917938178">#private5G</a>) and satellite, delivering good, neutral, fast on-train Wi-Fi AND cellular for passengers.</span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words
"><span><span dir="ltr"> </span></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGkRjPVegtOxD26ZtGuLt88H5213Stv2W-D2Q2QQmQObIC9TFqUir5dy2ZnLP10Igsyk9NHWKPmBa_ooY5ugNx2zYKViypxxGUX6b6ac7qgR7VYiPl1tpg8-Bn7SViVNi3X_PMfGDF0_9a2HBPDi97Gvju8x2vFhaPiZAjZmniSz1j5RWIhpqV/s1280/Train%20connectivity%20%20-%20WPF.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGkRjPVegtOxD26ZtGuLt88H5213Stv2W-D2Q2QQmQObIC9TFqUir5dy2ZnLP10Igsyk9NHWKPmBa_ooY5ugNx2zYKViypxxGUX6b6ac7qgR7VYiPl1tpg8-Bn7SViVNi3X_PMfGDF0_9a2HBPDi97Gvju8x2vFhaPiZAjZmniSz1j5RWIhpqV/s320/Train%20connectivity%20%20-%20WPF.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-52731032139332902292023-10-06T13:00:00.004+01:002023-10-06T13:00:54.714+01:00Indoor wireless & the need for unlicensed 6GHz<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on October 2 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn newsletter, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/indoor-wireless-need-unlicensed-6ghz-dean-bubley" target="_blank"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please subscribe / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span></p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks" dir="ltr">
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8824">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><em><strong>Note: </strong></em><em>This article has been commissioned by the </em><a data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/dynamic-spectrum-alliance-limited/">Dynamic Spectrum Alliance</a><em>,
based on my existing well-known analysis and positions, which I have
been discussing for many years both publicly and privately. I believe
that in-building wireless - irrespective of technology - receives far
too little attention from policymakers and regulators. 6GHz should be
indoor-primary spectrum.</em></span>
</p>
<hr />
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8825">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>Abstract & summary:</strong> The vast bulk of
wireless data traffic today is for indoor applications. In future,
in-building wireless will become even more important. It is
ideally-suited to 6GHz spectrum, made available on an unlicensed basis. A
licensed model for 5G mobile in 6GHz would be unable to deliver
coverage consistently for more than a small number of sites.
</span></p>
<h3 class="ember-view" id="ember8826"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Indoor wireless is already critical & often overlooked
</span></h3>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8827"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Industry estimates suggest that 60-80% of cellular data is
delivered to indoor users, predominantly on smartphones. Additional
statistics shows that smartphones <em>also</em> typically consume
another 2-5x the cellular data volume on Wi-Fi, almost all of which is
indoors or in vehicles. In other words, <strong>90%+ of total smartphone data is consumed inside buildings</strong>.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8828"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In addition, residential fixed broadband traffic volumes are
roughly 10-20x that of mobile broadband, with final delivery mostly over
Wi-Fi, often to non-smartphone devices such as smart TVs, laptops, game
consoles and voice assistants.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8829"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Outside the consumer market, a great deal of <strong>non-residential wireless connectivity is also indoors</strong>
– healthcare, education, manufacturing, conventions, hospitality and
office environments are all increasingly dependent on wireless,
especially with the rise of industrial automation systems, IoT, robots,
connected cameras and displays. These map to the rise in cloud- and
video-based business processes.
</span></p>
<div class="reader-image-block reader-image-block--resize">
<figure class="reader-image-block__figure">
<div class="ivm-image-view-model ">
<div class="ivm-view-attr__img-wrapper display-flex">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" class="ivm-view-attr__img--centered reader-image-block__img evi-image lazy-image ember-view" id="ember8830" src="https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4E12AQFSZYVV82grXQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1696237528940?e=1701907200&v=beta&t=a3zS-7tKLshORBC2pjPaUyCSgi_KMDs9Q90DdlIfqDY" /></span>
</div>
</div>
<figcaption class="display-block mt2 full-width text-body-small-open t-sans text-align-center t-black--light"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Most wireless uses & devices are indoor-centric
</span></figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8831"><span style="font-family: arial;">
This does not imply that outdoor wireless use is either trivial
or unimportant. Most obviously, everyone uses their phones for calling,
messaging, mapping and various transport and other apps while
on-the-move. Vehicle connectivity is becoming essential, as well as
wireless use for safety, utilities and smart-city infrastructure. Some
sectors such as agriculture, logistics and construction are
predominantly outdoor-oriented, albeit often at specific locations and
sites.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8832"><span style="font-family: arial;">
But to a rough approximation, <strong>if 80%+ of wireless use is indoors, then 80%+ of economic and social benefit of wireless will accrue indoors</strong> as well. This applies irrespective of the technology involved – Wi-Fi, 4G/5G cellular, or even Bluetooth.
</span></p>
<h3 class="ember-view" id="ember8833"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Future growth of indoor wireless
</span></h3>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8834"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The demands for indoor connectivity are likely to grow in both
scale and scope in coming years. There will be huge demand for
high-throughput, low-latency access for both consumer and enterprise
use-cases.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8835">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Gigabit broadband, especially delivered with fibre, is
becoming the default for both residential and business premises. In the
medium term, we can expect 10Gig services to become more common as well.
In many cases, <strong>the bottleneck is now </strong><em><strong>inside</strong></em><strong> the building</strong>, and local wireless systems need to keep pace with the access network.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There is a growing array of <strong>demanding devices and applications connected inside homes and enterprises</strong>
premises. 4K and 8K screens, automation systems, healthcare products,
AR/VR systems, cameras for security and industrial purposes, robots and
much more.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Wireless devices will increasingly be located in <em><strong>any</strong></em><strong> room or space inside a building</strong>, including bedrooms, garages, basements, meeting rooms, factory-floors and hospital operating theatres.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The <strong>density of devices</strong>
per-building or per-room will increase exponentially. While some will
be low-traffic products such as sensors, ever more appliances and
systems will feature screens, cameras and cloud/AI capabilities
demanding greater network performance.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There will be <strong>growing emphasis on the efficiency</strong>
of networks, in terms of both energy and spectrum usage. “Blasting
through walls” with wireless signals will be viewed negatively on both
counts.</span></li></ul>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8836"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Yet only some policymakers and regulators have explicit focus on indoor wireless in their broadband and spectrum policies. <strong>There has been some positive movement recently</strong>,
with regulators in markets such as the UK, Germany, Canada and Saudi
Arabia addressing the requirements. But it is now time for <em>all </em>governments
and regulators to specifically address indoor wireless needs – and
acknowledge the need for more spectrum, especially if they eventually
want to achieve <strong>“gigabit to each room” as a policy goal</strong>.
</span></p>
<h3 class="ember-view" id="ember8837"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Wi-Fi can satisfy indoor requirements, but needs 6GHz
</span></h3>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8838"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Almost all indoor devices discussed here have Wi-Fi
capabilities. A subset have 5G cellular radios as well. Very few are
5G-only. This situation is unlikely to change much, especially with a
5-10 year view.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8839"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Yet <strong>Wi-Fi faces a significant limit to its performance</strong>,
if it just has access to traditional 2.4GHz and 5GHz bands. Not only
are these limited in frequency range, but they also have a wide variety
of legacy devices, using multiple technologies, that must coexist with
any new systems.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8840"><span style="font-family: arial;">
While mesh systems have helped extend the reach to all rooms in a
home, and Wi-Fi 6 brings new techniques to improve performance and
device density in consumer and enterprise settings, much more will be
required in future.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8841"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Now, <strong>Wi-Fi 6E and 7 generations are able to use the 6GHz band</strong>.
This adds up to 1.2GHz of extra spectrum, with almost no sources of
interference indoors, and almost no risk of indoor use creating extra
interference to incumbent <em>outdoor</em> users, especially at lower power levels.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8842"><span style="font-family: arial;">
6GHz Wi-Fi would be able to address all the future requirements
discussed in the previous section, as well as reducing system latency,
improving indoor mobility and providing greater guarantees of QoS /
reliability.
</span></p>
<h3 class="ember-view" id="ember8843"><span style="font-family: arial;">
6GHz 5G is unsuitable for indoor use, and of limited use outdoors
</span></h3>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8844"><span style="font-family: arial;">
By contrast, <strong>6GHz is a poor fit for indoor 5G</strong>.
Most buildings will be unable to use outdoor-to-indoor propagation
reliably, given huge propagation challenges through walls. This would be
hugely wasteful of both energy and spectrum resource anyway. This
situation will worsen in future as well, with greater use of insulated
construction materials and glass.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8845"><span style="font-family: arial;">
That leaves dedicated indoor systems such as small cells or
distributed antenna or radio systems. Current DAS systems cannot support
6GHz radios – most struggle even with 3.5GHz. It may be possible to
upgrade some of the more advanced systems with new radio heads, but few
building owners would be willing to pay, and almost no MNOs would. In
any case, <strong>only a fraction of buildings have indoor cellular systems</strong>, especially beyond the top tier of shopping malls, airports and other large venues.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8846"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The industry lacks the human and financial resources to implement new 6GHz-capble indoor systems in more than <strong>a tiny proportion of the millions of buildings</strong> worldwide, especially residential homes and small businesses.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8847"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Enabling public 5G services to work reliably indoors with 6GHz is therefore a decade-long project, at least. <strong>It would likely be the mid-2030s before 5G (or 6G) devices could routinely use 6GHz inside buildings</strong>.
Lobbyist estimations of the notional GDP uplift from IMT use of the
band ignore both the timing and the practical challenges for indoor
applications. A very heavy discount % should be applied to any such
calculations, even if the baseline assumptions are seen as credible.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8848"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Private 5G systems in factories or warehouses could
theoretically use 6GHz licensed cellular, but most developed countries
now have alternative bands being made available on a localised basis,
such as CBRS, 3.8-4.2GHz or 4.9GHz. Many countries also have (unused)
mmWave options for indoor private 5G networks. In theory, 5G systems
could also use an unlicensed 6GHz band for private networks, although
previous unlicensed 4G variants in 5GHz never gained much market
traction.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8849"><span style="font-family: arial;">
It is worth noting that there are also very <strong>few obvious use-cases for outdoor, exclusive-licensed 6GHz for 5G</strong>
either, beyond a generic increment in capacity, which could also be
provided by network densification or other alternative bands. Most
markets still have significant headroom in midband 3-5GHz spectrum for
5G, especially if small cells are deployed. The most-dense environments
in urban areas could also exploit the large amount of mmWave spectrum
made available for cellular use, typically in the 24-28GHz range, which
is already in some handsets and is still mostly unused.
</span></p>
<h3 class="ember-view" id="ember8850"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Conclusions
</span></h3>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8851">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>Regulators and policymakers need to specifically analyse the use and supply/demand for indoor wireless</strong>,
and consider the best spectrum and technology options for such
applications and devices. Analysis will show that in-building wireless
accounts for the vast bulk of economic and social benefits from
connectivity.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8852"><span style="font-family: arial;">
This is <strong>best delivered by using Wi-Fi</strong>, which is
already supported by almost all relevant device types. With the
addition of 6GHz, it can address the future expected growth delivered by
FTTX broadband, as well as video, cloud and AR/VR applications.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8853"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The ultra-demanding <strong>uses that specifically require cellular indoors can use existing bands</strong>
with enhanced small cells and distributed radios, neutral-host
networks, or private 5G networks in the 3-5GHz range. There is also the
ample mmWave allocations for 5G.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8854"><span style="font-family: arial;">
A final fundamental element here is timing.<strong> 6 GHz Wi-Fi chipsets and user devices are already shipping</strong>
in their 100s of millions. Access points are widely available today and
becoming more sophisticated with Wi-Fi 7 and future 8+ versions. By
contrast, <strong>5G/6G use of the band for indoor use is unlikely until well into the next decade</strong>, if at all.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8855"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Indoor wireless is critically important, growing, and needs Wi-Fi.
</span></p>
<p class="ember-view reader-content-blocks__paragraph" id="ember8856"><span style="font-family: arial;">
And Wi-Fi needs 6GHz.
</span></p>
</div><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-65542767232016777922023-06-29T09:41:00.000+01:002023-06-29T09:41:57.758+01:005G data traffic growth - the devil (FWA) is in the detail<p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This blog combines two separate, linked LinkedIn articles published in June 2023 on consecutive days. The original posts and comment threads are <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_mobile-metrics-telecoms-activity-7077563899935379456-RT7A?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop" target="_blank">here </a>and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_fwa-mbb-ran-activity-7077931306625425409-JUWH?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop" target="_blank">here</a>.</span><br /></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">Measuring <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=mobile&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#mobile</a> data traffic is important for operators, vendors, and policymakers.<br /><br />As I've said before, we should use *good* <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=metrics&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#metrics</a> to measure the <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=telecoms&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#telecoms</a> industry, rather than just *easy* metrics. This post is an example of what I mean.<br /><br />Yesterday, <a data-attribute-index="3" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ericsson/">Ericsson</a>
released its latest Mobility Report. It's always an interesting trove
of statistics on mobile subscribers, networks and usage, with extra
topical articles, sometimes written by customers or guests. <br /><br />While
obviously it's very oriented to cellular technologies and has an
optimistic pro-3GPP stance, it has a long pedigree and a lot of work
goes into it. It's partly informed by private stats from Ericsson's
real-world, in-service networks run by MNO customers.<br /><br />This edition includes extra detail, such as breaking out fixed-wireless access & separating video traffic into VoD <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=streaming&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#streaming</a> (eg Netflix) vs. social media like TikTok and YouTube. <br /><br />It
had plenty of golden "information nuggets". For instance, traffic
density can be 500-1000x higher in dense urban locations than sparse
rural areas. I'll come back to that another time.<br /><br />Global mobile
data grew 36% from Q1'22 to Q1'23. The full model online predicts 31%
growth in CY2023, falling to just 15% in 2028, despite adding in AR/VR
applications towards the end of the decade. That's a fairly rapid
s-curve flattening. <br /><br />For Europe, MBB data growth is predicted at
29% in 2023, falling to only 12% in 2028. That's a *really* important
one for all sorts of reasons, and is considerably lower than many other
forecasts.<br /><br />But what really caught my eye was this "<a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fwa&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#FWA</a>
data traffic represented 21% of global mobile data traffic at the end
of 2022". Further, it is projected to grow much faster than mobile
broadband (MBB) and account for *30%* of total traffic in 2028, mostly <a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#5G</a>. When the famous "5G triangle" of use-cases was developed by ITU, it didn't even mention FWA.<br /><br />However,
the report didn't break out this split by region. So I decided to
estimate it myself based on the regional split of FWA subscribers, which
was shown in a graphic. I also extended the forecasts out to 2030.<br /><br />I
then added an additional segmentation of my own - an indoor vs outdoor
split of MBB data. I've pegged this at 75% indoors, aligning with
previous comments from Ericsson and others. Some indoor MBB is served by
dedicated in-building wireless systems, and some is outdoor-to-indoor
from macro RAN or outdoor small cells. <br /><br />The result is
fascinating. By the 2030, it is possible that over 40% of European 5G
data traffic will be from FWA. Just 14% of cellular data will be for
outdoor mobile broadband. So what's generating the alleged 5G GDP
uplift?<br /><br />That has massive implications for spectrum policy (eg on <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6ghz&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#6GHz</a>) and proposed <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fairshare&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077563899935379456">#fairshare</a> traffic fees. It also highlights the broad lack of attention paid to indoor cellular and FWA. <br /><br />Note:
This is a quick, rough estimate, but it's the type of data we need for
better decisionmaking. I hope to catalyse others to do similar analysis.</span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"> </span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipo2iG8jkDPt32PFXvvDyERS0X_xVzZA9k_ofRsNQsw9gnjx1bz5VBYPOFhVQczA9lEjxVVuT4Z1aBscKSFp4v4K2bnbiL_su6LKCyrposIVACamn0RL-rTBCkjsOuxN2P2fNIOwTeXmaw14etS-cjMzLI8lJ9jbWfo5jXw8iBYxyJO4DVInAV/s1280/Europe%20data%20traffic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipo2iG8jkDPt32PFXvvDyERS0X_xVzZA9k_ofRsNQsw9gnjx1bz5VBYPOFhVQczA9lEjxVVuT4Z1aBscKSFp4v4K2bnbiL_su6LKCyrposIVACamn0RL-rTBCkjsOuxN2P2fNIOwTeXmaw14etS-cjMzLI8lJ9jbWfo5jXw8iBYxyJO4DVInAV/s320/Europe%20data%20traffic.png" width="320" /></a></div><i><br /></i><p></p><p><i><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">A separate second post then looked at the policy aspects of this:</span></span></span></i></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">Yesterday's post on mobile data traffic -
and contribution from 5G FWA and indoor use - seems to have struck a
chord. Some online and offline comments have asked about the policy
implications.</span></span></span></p><div class="feed-shared-update-v2__description-wrapper
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" data-artdeco-is-focused="true" style="display: block; max-height: none;" tabindex="-1"><div class="update-components-text relative feed-shared-update-v2__commentary " dir="ltr"><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">There are several conclusions for regulators and telecoms/infrastructure ministries:<br /><br />-
Collect more granular data, or make reasoned estimates, of breakdowns
of data traffic in your country & trends over time. As well as <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fwa&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#FWA</a> vs <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=mbb&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#MBB</a> & indoor vs outdoor, there should be a split between rural / urban / dense & ideally between macro <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=ran&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#RAN</a> vs outdoor <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=smallcell&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#smallcell</a> vs dedicated indoor system. Break out rail / road transport usage.<br />- Develop a specific policy (or at least gather data and policy drivers) for FWA & indoor <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wireless&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#wireless</a>. That feeds through to many areas including spectrum, competition, consumer protection, <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wholesale&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#wholesale</a>, rights-of-way / access, <a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=cybersecurity&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#cybersecurity</a>, inclusion, industrial policy, R&D, testbeds and trials etc. Don't treat <a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=mobile&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#mobile</a> as mostly about outdoor or in-vehicle connectivity.<br />- View demand forecasts of mobile <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=datatraffic&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#datatraffic</a>
and implied costs for MNO investment / capacity-upgrade through the
lens of detailed stats, not headline aggregates. FWA is "discretionary";
operators know it creates 10-20x more traffic per user. In areas with
poor fixed <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=broadband&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#broadband</a>
(typically rural) that's potentially good news - but those areas may
have spare mobile capacity rather than needing upgrades. Remember
4G-to-5G upgrade CAPEX is needed irrespective of traffic levels. FWA in
urban areas likely competes with fibre and is a commercial choice, so
complaints about traffic growth are self-serving.<br />- Indoor & FWA wireless can be more "tech neutral" & "business model neutral" than outdoor mobile access. <a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#WiFi</a>, <a data-attribute-index="11" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=satellite&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#satellite</a> and other technologies play more important roles - and may be lower-energy too. Shared / <a data-attribute-index="12" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=neutralhost&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#neutralhost</a> infrastructure is very relevant.<br />- Think through the impact of detailed data on <a data-attribute-index="13" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=spectrum&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#spectrum</a> requirements and bands. In particular, the FWA/MBB & indoor splits are yet more evidence that the need for <a data-attribute-index="14" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6ghz&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#6GHz</a> for <a data-attribute-index="15" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#5G</a>
has been hugely overstated. In particular, because FWA is
"deterministic" (ie it doesn't move around or cluster in crowds) it's
much more tolerant of using different bands - or unlicensed spectrum.
Meanwhile indoor MBB can be delivered with low-band macro 5G, dedicated
in-building systems (perhaps mmWave), or offloaded to WiFi. Using
midband 5G and MIMO to "blast through walls" is not ideal use of either
spectrum or energy.<br />- View 5G traffic data/forecasts used in so-called <a data-attribute-index="16" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fairshare&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#fairshare</a> or <a data-attribute-index="17" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=costrecovery&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#costrecovery</a>
debates with skepticism. Check if discretionary FWA is inflating the
figures. Question any GDP impact claims. Consider how much RAN
investment is actually serving indoor users, maybe inefficiently. And be
aware that home FWA traffic skews towards TVs and VoD <a data-attribute-index="18" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=streaming&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#streaming</a> (Netflix, Prime etc) rather than smartphone- or upload-centric social <a data-attribute-index="19" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=video&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7077931306625425409">#video</a> like TikTok & FB/IG.<br /><br />Telecoms regulation needs good input data, not convenient or dramatic headline stats.</span></span>
</span>
</div>
</div>
</div><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"> </span></span></span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-73592878185427398682023-06-24T09:03:00.001+01:002023-06-24T09:03:00.147+01:00UK FTTP: Consolidation and driving uptake<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on June 16 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_fttp-fttx-altnets-activity-7075428711574953984-fNVb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">Last week I attended the <a data-attribute-index="0" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ispa-uk/">ISPA UK</a> Business Models event, primarily about <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fttp&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7075428711574953984">#FTTP</a> build & adoption. <br /><br />Two themes dominated:<br /><br />- Consolidation patterns. The UK has >150 ISPs building <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fttx&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7075428711574953984">#FTTX</a>
networks, with a patchwork mix of small/large, urban/rural &
vertical/wholesale-only. As interest rates rise & consumer spending
is inflation-limited, not all can stay viable.<br />- How can uptake be
accelerated? While many homes are "passed" by fibre, comparatively few
are actually signing up for FTTP access services. The lack of revenue
for new <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=altnets&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7075428711574953984">#AltNets</a> exacerbates the first issue.<br /><br />Not discussed: data traffic volumes or so-called <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fairshare&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7075428711574953984">#fairshare</a>.
All the investment is going into initial builds, not capacity upgrades.
Streaming and >500GB/mo is actually good news, not a cause for
lobbyist handwringing.<br /><br />The consolidation pathway is complex. There are 3 elements:<br /><br />-
Distress: companies running out of cash, unable to raise fresh capital,
and selling assets or the whole business to deeper-pocketed
consolidators willing to take a long view of the market.<br />- Proximity: Mergers or perhaps wholesale/sharing deals between geographic neighbouring ISPs, for scale efficiencies.<br />- Strategic: larger "mega-mergers" perhaps between wholesalers and integrated telcos, or between B2B and B2C specialists. <br /><br />There
are plenty of challenges. M&A means blending FTTP providers with
different vendors, maybe different network engineering qualities,
different back-office systems (perhaps proprietary) etc. There may be
significant integration costs and practical headaches. Another issue to
resolve is competing "overbuilt" fibre grids in urban areas, especially
as OpenReach gets to more locations and offers cheap "Equinox2"
wholesale.<br /><br />The uptake question is also thorny. A few speakers
pointed out that the UK's FTTC / VDSL broadband mostly proved itself
"good enough" during the pandemic, so convincing people they need FTTP
or gigabit speeds is a tough sell, especially given cost-of-living
issues. <br /><br />Unless they currently have really terrible connectivity,
few people really want to take a day off work to wait for an engineer,
risk a day or two without Internet if the switch doesn't work straight
away, or pay more and sign up for a new longterm contract. <br /> <br />For some, futureproofing can wait until the future, it seems.<br /><br />I can think of a number of ways that uptake could be incentivised:<br /><br />- Trumpet fibre's uses, reliability & maybe impact on property values<br />-
Subsidise an overlap of the old service with the new FTTP, so
customers' old connection wouldn't be switched off before it was fully
live<br />- Offer funding to connect homes that are "passed" as long as the connection is fully open-access / wholesale-ready<br />- Measure, monitor and incentivise B2B use of fibre as well as residential (retail, schools, small offices, home-workers etc)<br />- Better mapping to find and deal with "exceptions"<br /><br />All would be enhanced by a consistent view (or scenarios) for the UK <a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fibre&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7075428711574953984">#fibre</a> "end state". At the moment that is too amorphous.</span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br /></span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-39821044311612848212023-06-23T08:53:00.001+01:002023-06-23T08:53:00.145+01:00Connectivity on trains is hard - but both Wi-Fi and cellular need to be provided for passengers<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on May 24 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_wifi-train-railway-activity-7067215189040844800-CB2s?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">There have been recent headlines about the possible ending of on-train passenger <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7067215189040844800">#WiFi</a> services in the UK. It is deeply controversial.<br /><br />Apparently the <a data-attribute-index="1" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/department-for-transport/">Department for Transport (DfT), United Kingdom</a>
has insisted rail WiFi must be "justified financially". It's unclear if
that means by extra ticket sales, higher customer satisfaction, or the
use of WiFi for <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=train&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7067215189040844800">#train</a> operational functions like cameras and wireless payment terminals. <br /><br />I
hope it's not referring to so-called "monetisation" by customers paying
for WiFi, or being served adverts. On trains, WiFi is a basic amenity,
like toilets or power sockets.<br /><br />That said, train WiFi in the UK is
often problematic. It uses clunky captive portals, and often old access
points & slow/patchy 4G backhaul. It often fails to work well, or
at all. It sometimes blocks video or VPNs. By contrast, in-station WiFi
is run separately - and often much better.<br /><br />Public cellular
coverage on the rail network is also poor. Many rail lines run through
cuttings and tunnels with limited room for trackside infrastructure
& poor lines-of-sight to cell towers. The recent <a data-attribute-index="4" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/scitechgovuk/">Department for Science, Innovation and Technology</a> Wireless Infrastructure Strategy highlighted poor <a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=railway&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7067215189040844800">#railway</a> <a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wireless&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7067215189040844800">#wireless</a> coverage & pushed for regular monitoring and access to trackside fibre.<br /> <br />What should DfT, DSIT, Network Rail, Train Operating Companies and the future restructured <a data-attribute-index="8" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/gbrtt/">Great British Railways Transition Team (GBRTT)</a> do? <br /> <br />- Recognise both cellular & WiFi are essential for passengers, especially on long-distance trains where laptops are common<br />- Understand that cellular - especially <a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7067215189040844800">#5G</a> - has problems with signals reaching inside train carriages<br />-
Don't underestimate forecasts for future data use. Add in uplink as
well as downlink, and think about latency. Trains may need 1-5 Gbps in
the medium term, via a mix of cellular & WiFi.<br />- Ensure on-train
WiFi is easy to use & easily-upgraded. No captive portals, no
“monetisation” with ads/data capture & a clear roadmap for regular
upgrades. No blocking of any apps, especially VPNs and video. Apply Net
Neutrality rules.<br />- Federation or roaming between on-train &
station WiFi systems, extending to smart cities & metro
bus/train/tram WiFi over time<br />- Easier access for MNOs / <a data-attribute-index="11" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=neutralhosts&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7067215189040844800">#neutralhosts</a> to build trackside or near-track infrastructure & use gantries & fibre assets<br />- Decouple passenger connectivity needs from future critical <a data-attribute-index="12" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=frmcs&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7067215189040844800">#FRMCS</a> deployment. They have different timing/cadence & investment cases<br />- Look at trackside 5G neutral host networks delivered with “excess” spectrum from any future 4-3 merger of MNOs<br />-
Insist on-train gateways are modular & can use a dynamic mix of
public 5G, trackside wireless & eventually satellite in remote
areas. Ensure they are easily upgradeable without trains being taken out
of service<br />- Upgrade on-train signal repeaters & look at window-etching for better outdoor-to-indoor performance<br /><br />Note: I wrote this on WiFi on a train back to London from this week’s <a data-attribute-index="13" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/wi-fi-now/">Wi-Fi NOW</a> conference.</span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZQl2LvdbNZ3xgaRCgbtqut-8un8d3jQmMsh1iCyF4tyL1Dtyrg--iOvrtHlDHMQuFMu_VrprETbaOaMidvEa8fw4GvSrATLPx7hRJQXBTFuZ0SHPvd_oT4gSr4h7bUqgniy3wf5ofoz-RxuWzV9lplA4t2g0i_xeB5yrU8_ZvNBzPGl2pUwbc/s564/DisruptiveDean_person_on_a_train_using_a_laptop._other_passenge_b0ed0c35-0260-4e9e-947f-2caceeffebef.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="564" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZQl2LvdbNZ3xgaRCgbtqut-8un8d3jQmMsh1iCyF4tyL1Dtyrg--iOvrtHlDHMQuFMu_VrprETbaOaMidvEa8fw4GvSrATLPx7hRJQXBTFuZ0SHPvd_oT4gSr4h7bUqgniy3wf5ofoz-RxuWzV9lplA4t2g0i_xeB5yrU8_ZvNBzPGl2pUwbc/s320/DisruptiveDean_person_on_a_train_using_a_laptop._other_passenge_b0ed0c35-0260-4e9e-947f-2caceeffebef.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span><p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-33863361569758595072023-06-22T08:45:00.002+01:002023-06-22T08:45:00.145+01:00Data traffic growth forecasts - AD Little's new report has a lot better methodology than most<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on June 5 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_fairshare-6ghz-spectrum-activity-7071576961424203777-o7yK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><div class="feed-shared-control-menu display-flex
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<span><span dir="ltr">When I saw that <a data-attribute-index="0" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/arthur-d--little/">Arthur D. Little</a> had published a report on “The evolution of data growth in Europe”, on behalf of <a data-attribute-index="2" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/etnoassociation/">ETNO Association</a> & <a data-attribute-index="4" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/gsma/">GSMA</a>, I rolled my eyes.<br /> <br />Both
organisations have previously published terrible studies by
consultants, riddled with flawed assumptions and dodgy multiplier
"fiddle factors". I’ve loudly criticised Axon and Coleago reports
related to the (un)<a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fairshare&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#fairshare</a> and <a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6ghz&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#6GHz</a> <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=spectrum&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#spectrum</a> debates respectively.<br /> <br />So I started the ADL report with trepidation, not helped by a strange typo / editing error in the first paragraph.<br /> <br />But
actually, the report is pretty good, and I broadly agree with both
methodology and conclusions, albeit with one major caveat.<br /> <br />It
estimates usage of home and mobile broadband on the basis of
hours-per-day of active use of heavy applications such as video
streaming, gaming and possible metaverse-type experiences.<br /> <br />I’ve
used GB-per-hour myself, to model passenger data-traffic demand on
trains. It makes more sense than the usual Gbps, as most applications
are “bursty”. It also fits the typical heuristics of human behaviour.
How many seconds a day do you spend on social media? <br /> <br />The
central prediction of 20% growth in fixed traffic and 25% for mobile
usage seems reasonable. I could argue for 25/20 rather than 20/25, but
it's fine as a rough estimate.<br /><br />Importantly these rates for the next few years are well within the bounds of both fixed broadband (moving to <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fttp&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#FTTP</a>) and mobile (on <a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#5G</a>)
without incremental investments in extra capacity, beyond the main
"generational" shift & CAPEX. And that is driven by government
policy and competition, not traffic load and congestion. The report
convincingly shows that nobody really needs/values more than 100Mbps for
current apps, so <a data-attribute-index="11" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=gigabit&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#gigabit</a> networks have plenty of headroom.<br /><br />My main criticism is there is no analysis of mobile device traffic carried over fixed networks and <a data-attribute-index="12" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#WiFi</a>. Smartphones used at home for video, gaming or social media will be c80% on Wi-Fi, and indoor usage is c80% of the total. <br /><br />The
report also talks about AI pre-emptively downloading content for
“infinite scrolling”, but doesn't suggest it could be smart enough to do
so mostly over cheap / low-energy fixed connections. (IMO, by 2030,
governments may *mandate* cellular offload via neutral-host or Wi-Fi for
indoor use).<br /><br />I agree with the report's assertions that VR is in an indoor/fixed application, that most <a data-attribute-index="13" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=iot&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#IoT</a> traffic is a rounding-error and that <a data-attribute-index="14" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=web3&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#Web3</a> is probably irrelevant. The <a data-attribute-index="15" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=metaverse&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#metaverse</a> scenarios seem mostly plausible.<br /> <br />One
area I think ADL underestimates is fixed broadband for video streaming.
While Netflix and YouTube are “active” viewing, historically, many
people just leave broadcast TV switched on, even if nobody is in the
room except the cat. <br /><br />If TV really goes online-only, then that becomes a genuine “waste” of capacity, unless you can advertise to pets.<br /><br />Overall - really quite good analysis, which (ironically, given the sponsors) fatally undermines the <a data-attribute-index="16" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=internettraffictax&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7071576961424203777">#InternetTrafficTax</a> rhetoric.</span></span>
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</div><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGMfYjxvvhZAC9m0IPQXwdUEk1o7EizcgbFKTSJB3nOu7T2czVy9eeBahT1aVgU8dq_9ixaMOW5abUfJ8dv385gU_0xA0VNbhs-oBBTs0_wzBpBcA_WPcJBr63ckD2acd1i0IavdBbIxXr9Keho8Vk_2gkniJy3NT8tjt3Y1rdXA9eWXgwFoXK/s2016/cats%20and%20penguins.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2016" data-original-width="1512" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGMfYjxvvhZAC9m0IPQXwdUEk1o7EizcgbFKTSJB3nOu7T2czVy9eeBahT1aVgU8dq_9ixaMOW5abUfJ8dv385gU_0xA0VNbhs-oBBTs0_wzBpBcA_WPcJBr63ckD2acd1i0IavdBbIxXr9Keho8Vk_2gkniJy3NT8tjt3Y1rdXA9eWXgwFoXK/s320/cats%20and%20penguins.jpg" width="240" /></a></span></b></span></span></span></div><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b></span></span></span><p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-27460821937380864922023-06-21T08:41:00.007+01:002023-06-21T08:41:00.137+01:00Spectrum: The shifting tone of the satellite industry<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on June 7 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_6ghz-spectrum-satellite-activity-7072182385999499264-Hcam?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">I'm in Brussels this week at the <a data-attribute-index="0" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/forum-europe/">Forum Europe</a> European Spectrum Management Conference.<br /><br />There's a lot to discuss, especially around <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6ghz&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072182385999499264">#6GHz</a> and 3.8-4.2GHz and the role of unlicensed and local/shared bands, as well as the upcoming World Radio Conference WRC-23. <br /><br />I'll
have more to say, but here I just want to highlight one particular
theme that has been evident over the last couple of days: the tone of
the satellite sector, which is here in force, especially with <a data-attribute-index="3" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/gsoa/">GSOA</a> and <a data-attribute-index="5" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelsat/">Intelsat</a>.<br /><br />In the past at these <a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=spectrum&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072182385999499264">#spectrum</a> events, the <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=satellite&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072182385999499264">#satellite</a> industry has turned up with a familiar script:<br /><br />"Hi,
we're from the satellite industry. Please don't take our spectrum. We
help with defence, aviation & connecting the unconnected. Please
don't take our spectrum. We work tightly with the mobile industry, doing
backhaul & IoT and timing sync. They're our friends & vice
versa. Oh, and did we mention our spectrum? Please don't take any more
of it"<br /><br />But this time, it's different. The message is now closer to: <br /><br />"We're
doing all ths cool new stuff, including for wireless broadband, direct
to device and defence. So actually, we want to keep all our spectrum.
And maybe give back the old <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=mmwave&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072182385999499264">#mmWave</a>
spectrum you took years ago, that the mobile industry hasn't even used.
Seriously, you want *more* spectrum to be taken from us and
pre-allocated to 6G now? Are you having a laugh?"<br /><br />There was a
whole panel on direct-to-device, and satellite has fought its corner on
the upper 6GHz (it can coexist with low/medium power WiFi, but not high
power 5G) and fixed satellite links in 4GHz band. The future-looking 6G
panel started a fierce debate on 7-24GHz, which covers various of the
satellite incumbent bands.<br /><br />There's been a few references to South
Korea's regulator reclaiming unused 28GHz licenses from MNOs that
haven't used the band. And there's a broad opinion that mobile/IMT is
not a friendly partner for spectrum-sharing, at least for national MNO
macro networks at full power. (Local private networks are OK-ish, it
seems). <br /><br />"An IMT identification is an eviction notice - the incumbents must leave". <br /><br />"It's
disingenuous to discuss coexistence studies - we've been here before
and know how it ends. It's not our first rodeo with the mobile industry"<br /><br />Now clearly this year, in the last few months before WRC23, is when arguments get more vigorous. But some of the stuff at the <a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=euspectrum&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072182385999499264">#EUspectrum</a>
event has been seriously punchy - Intelsat asked whether Europe should
be focused on primacy in an amorphous "race to 6G" or a more
geopolitically-crucial "space race".<br /><br />My view is that the <a data-attribute-index="11" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072182385999499264">#5G</a>
industry is seeing some chickens coming home to roost at the moment. It
overpromised Release 18 features with Release 15 timelines, got mmWave
spectrum years before it could be exploited, and have left politicians
and regulators with egg on their faces. <br /><br />Meanwhile, the satellite
sector is positioning itself as super-cool and important. It has a
swagger that is being noticed by policymakers, and for good reason.</span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_CFs3rE9XavzCWB5TzF6wUgTUbXaDisub3C17sJFjSP8NOlxdLf02qhqKSBlQYOSZMDxIBaIJ5ypx948FbU23TvHuWBBb31StFpQc7VAoWBahmtvf6cB_4K2v6L8pFPkWq-k9Q8zAWlMLl5ghkqAHbFbABlAD549ysBfXw9GdakQhJmkOvjqI/s2048/6GHz%20panel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_CFs3rE9XavzCWB5TzF6wUgTUbXaDisub3C17sJFjSP8NOlxdLf02qhqKSBlQYOSZMDxIBaIJ5ypx948FbU23TvHuWBBb31StFpQc7VAoWBahmtvf6cB_4K2v6L8pFPkWq-k9Q8zAWlMLl5ghkqAHbFbABlAD549ysBfXw9GdakQhJmkOvjqI/s320/6GHz%20panel.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> <br /></span></b></span></span></span><p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-29224893359333293802023-06-20T08:34:00.001+01:002023-06-20T08:34:00.142+01:00Private 5G: Two different approaches at the Coronation<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on June 9 </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_coronation-broadcasters-5g-activity-7072866866259456000-1Ct_?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">A month ago, the UK and much of the world watched King Charles' <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=coronation&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#Coronation</a> in London. <br /><br />They were able to watch it partly because of the immense efforts of the various <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=broadcasters&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#broadcasters</a> involved. Since then, two separate stories have emerged about the role of dedicated <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#5G</a> connectivity in the TV coverage:<br /><br />1) A dedicated private 5G network supplied by <a data-attribute-index="3" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/neutralwireless/">Neutral Wireless</a> and <a data-attribute-index="5" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/bbc/">BBC</a> R&D, used by several broadcasters<br />2) A slice of the <a data-attribute-index="7" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/vodafone/">Vodafone</a> public 5G network, enabled for <a data-attribute-index="9" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/itn/">ITN</a>, based on <a data-attribute-index="11" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ericsson/">Ericsson</a> gear<br /><br />In
the comments I've linked to various articles and a great interview on
Ericsson's Voice of 5G podcast show. They have details of the other
partners involved too. In the BBC blog post they also mention a 3rd
network on a separate cell, working alongside <a data-attribute-index="13" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/sony/">Sony</a>, for low-latency (I think) remote-controlled cameras.<br /><br />The <a data-attribute-index="15" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=private&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#Private</a>
5G network used 8 radios along The Mall (the tree-lined road between
Buckingham Palace to Trafalgar Sq). It used 2x 40MHz channels in the
UK's shared-licence band between 3.8-4.2GHz, with 1Gbps capacity (mostly
for uplink). It was used by around 60 devices - I guess mostly cameras
and test equipment via gateways, plus the BBC's onsite radio studio.
They also used <a data-attribute-index="16" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/liveu/">LiveU</a> bonding systems to add capacity from public MNO networks. I'm not sure about the vendors of the radios or standalone core.<br /><br />The 5G SA <a data-attribute-index="18" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=networkslicing&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#networkslicing</a>
solution was apparently used for a single sector at a 3.5GHz temporary
base station aimed at the Palace balcony. It also worked with LiveU. On
the podcast, <a data-attribute-index="19" data-entity-type="MINI_PROFILE" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/ACoAAAAVgzsBxB7aWfZ8yfFr1BHhEEFqtSkBA1A">Andrea Donà</a>
(VF's head of network in the UK) talks about "dedicating bandwidth to
one sector for the slice" and carving out some of the uplink capacity.<br /><br />One
thing that is unclear to me is how many other users were sharing the VF
standalone 5G network hosting the slice - SA hasn't been fully launched
commercially in the UK, although in January VF said it had invited
selected users to trial it. I also don't know whether the 5G NSA and SA
networks were sharing the radio resource, or if they use separate
channels.<br /><br />The public 4G / 5G networks (and also Wi-Fi bands) in
the area were pretty overloaded, despite additional mobile towers adding
capacity. The Vodafone / Ericsson podcast notes that VF uses "all the
bands" at major events (although there's no <a data-attribute-index="21" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=mmwave&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#mmWave</a> 5G in the UK yet) - so including 4G at 2.1GHz and 2.6GHz, and some lower bands for 2G/3G.<br /><br />My take from this is that <a data-attribute-index="22" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=private5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#private5G</a> is considerably more mature than <a data-attribute-index="23" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5gslicing&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#5Gslicing</a>,
but that both are interesting for broadcasters. Both need quite a lot
of specialist engineering, but TV is a sector with lots of very clever
specialists and great ability to set up temporary networks. Of course,
both networks were *outdoors* which meant that the thick stonework of
the palace and Westminster Abbey weren't relevant. <br /><br />One last note - the huge bulk of broadcast audiovisual output at the coronation would have used dedicated <a data-attribute-index="24" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=pmse&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#PMSE</a> wireless for cameras and microphones. But the <a data-attribute-index="25" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=uhf&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7072866866259456000">#UHF</a> spectrum debate is for another post.</span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words
" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbaoRArm4Hm8nf1FCjBObdtItPXrnr8bV6tEG4fw4DiT6E1ZYY3Sh6RnQXXV2SsUiFpEBaP_MwQXGl9b4BDFCO6UZCO0GKsOwNRr_lr-CIFoqfdPecI6mNh6vMt9kKh2rB6CQKmP00FkQ4SWnCo6ILa7WtH72X5uS7lvMvz5SBdmw3AjGghZj6/s539/DisruptiveDean_Buckingham_Palace._TV_cameras_and_crew._5G_cell__296dc9e4-eab5-4fb9-81d4-60914abc56aa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="539" data-original-width="539" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbaoRArm4Hm8nf1FCjBObdtItPXrnr8bV6tEG4fw4DiT6E1ZYY3Sh6RnQXXV2SsUiFpEBaP_MwQXGl9b4BDFCO6UZCO0GKsOwNRr_lr-CIFoqfdPecI6mNh6vMt9kKh2rB6CQKmP00FkQ4SWnCo6ILa7WtH72X5uS7lvMvz5SBdmw3AjGghZj6/s320/DisruptiveDean_Buckingham_Palace._TV_cameras_and_crew._5G_cell__296dc9e4-eab5-4fb9-81d4-60914abc56aa.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span><p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-64926845046789371432023-06-19T08:34:00.001+01:002023-06-19T08:34:52.683+01:00CAPEX in telecoms - beware of headline numbers<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on June 12</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles.<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_telecoms-capex-fttp-activity-7073939469371854850-UPHF?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop" target="_blank"> It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / connect to me on LinkedIn, to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><div class="feed-shared-update-v2__description-wrapper
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<span><span dir="ltr">CAPEX numbers are important in <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=telecoms&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#telecoms</a>.
But they're also often collected and analysed in a haphazard fashion,
or sometimes twisted and misinterpreted. There are examples that wrongly
imply casual links or are carefully selected to drive specific policy
choices.<br /><br />- Telco execs watch CAPEX stats as they're important
elements of cashflow & also signify key strategies and technology
transitions<br />- Vendors watch <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=capex&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#CAPEX</a> stats to understand demand for new products<br />- Investors watch CAPEX as inputs to their valuation models, and as a barometer for company/industry health and prospects<br />-
Policymakers watch CAPEX as it gets captured in "investment"
statistics, and as an indicator for potential regulatory changes (or as a
metric of success of previous policies)<br /><br />Various ratios are commonplace, for both companies and the industry:<br />- CAPEX vs. revenues<br />- CAPEX vs. EBITDA<br />- CAPEX of telecoms vs. tech/hyperscalers<br />- CAPEX vs. R&D spending<br />- Fixed vs. Mobile CAPEX<br />... and so on<br /><br />The
problem is that "telco CAPEX" is also a very vague and malleable
concept. Digging into it reveals many more questions - and problems with
the methodologies and conclusions drawn, especially where headline
numbers are concerned.<br /><br />Some of the questions I'm currently looking at include:<br /><br />-
What counts as a "telco"? Are you including towercos, subsea fibre
operators, municipalities building networks, MVNOs and many others?<br />- Are historic CAPEX numbers restated when telcos sell or acquire other businesses, especially tower spin-outs?<br />- Is it meaningful to compare CAPEX for 10 / 30 / 50 year assets such as <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fttp&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#FTTP</a>, which will generate decades of new revenue, with last year's figures? <br />- How do you separate CAPEX for basic coverage vs. incremental capacity vs. "generational" upgrades to fibre or <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#5G</a>? A lot of CAPEX occurs even if usage is low<br />- How do you deal with leasing or other financing models? If CAPEX shifts to OPEX, how is it captured in the stats?<br />-
What happens with "cloudified" networks? Firstly they rely on shared
(often 3rd-party) assets, and secondly they are *supposed* to lower
costs / investments. But will the lower CAPEX be viewed as a sign of
distress, not modernisation?<br />- Is non-network CAPEX broken out (eg retail sites, central offices, datacentres etc)?<br />- Is "adjacent capex" included and if so, how?, eg in-building <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wireless&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#wireless</a>, <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=spectrum&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#spectrum</a> licenses, software development<br /><br />I hear many commentators and lobbyists claim "<a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=netneutrality&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#NetNeutrality</a>
led to lower CAPEX!" or "Streaming traffic leads to higher CAPEX!" or
"There's an investment gap!". Without detailed data - and an analysis of
causality - you have to question the veracity & meaningfulness of
such rhetoric.<br /><br />In summary - CAPEX is indeed important. But in fact it's so important, that headline numbers are often useless or misleading. <br /><br />Ask for details on segmentation, methodology and definitions - if they aren't available, treat the numbers with deep skepticism.<br /><br /><a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fttx&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#FTTX</a> <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=telcos&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#telcos</a> <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=regulations&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#regulations</a> <a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=networks&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#networks</a> <a data-attribute-index="11" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fairshare&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7073939469371854850">#fairshare</a> </span></span>
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<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-41650713656722076122023-05-01T09:45:00.003+01:002023-05-01T09:45:00.152+01:00A critical enabler for broadband competition - Marketplaces for buying and selling open access FTTP<p></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">Apr 18 on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_connectednorth-neutralhost-infrastructure-activity-7053752918721589248-OO6J?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop" target="_blank">It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / subscribe to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p></p><div class="feed-shared-control-menu display-flex
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<span><span dir="ltr">Following yesterday's post on mobile <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=neutralhost&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#neutralhost</a> operators as aggregators for wholesale access to municipality-level <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=smallcells&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#smallcells</a> and assets/permits, I think something roughly similar is happening in <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=fttp&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#FTTP</a>.<br /><br />An aggregation & marketplace tier for <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=isps&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#ISPs</a>, <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=altnets&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#AltNets</a> and <a data-attribute-index="5" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=infracos&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#infracos</a> is emerging, among the UK fixed <a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=broadband&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#broadband</a> market's various groups:<br /><br />-
Incumbents with wholesale & retail units, although in theory
separated - BT Retail & OpenReach, and VMO2 (Virgin) with its new
wholesale JV Nexfibre (with Liberty Global & Infravia)<br />- AltNets with their own FTTP infrastructure solely for their own ISP retail services, eg Hyperoptic<br />- AltNets with FTTP for both inhouse ISP retail and wholesale to others<br />- Wholesale-only FTTP providers such as CityFibre<br />- Retail-only ISPs, such as Zen & TalkTalk, which buy wholesale fibre (and historically copper / FTTC)<br /><br />The wholesale market is expanding rapidly, with infracos still building, <a data-attribute-index="7" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/openreach/">Openreach</a>
accelerating (and trying to discount with its contentious Equinox 2
plan) and existing AltNets looking to supplement slow conversion of
homes-passed to homes-connected by offering access to other ISPs.<br /><br />But
the patchwork quilt of wholesale FTTP is very messy. There is growing
overbuild, lots of "passed" homes that need extra work to get to
individual buildings (or inside them to flats), a mishmash of vendors
and construction practices, variable-quality networks and processes -
and ongoing consolidation and possible financial woes.<br /><br />This brings a need for aggregation & simplification. There is both a "buy" and a "sell" side here. <br /><br />Retail
ISPs want access to well-defined and standardised wholesale fibre
access, across multiple FTPP owners - both major players like Openreach
and AltNets. They want to sell consistent products to end-customers,
with promises on provisioning "live next Tuesday at 11am" or ways to
deal with faults. They don't want 50 integration projects - but they do
want good pricing.<br /><br />The AltNets, meanwhile, want to be able to
sell to those ISPs, even if they've built IT systems and processes that
weren't originally designed for wholesale. They also need to conform to
Ofcom's new one-touch-switching rules.<br /><br />Maybe I'll think of a snappier term, but given that the <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=connectednorth&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#ConnectedNorth</a> conference took place in Manchester, the term Open Access Solution as a Service, or <a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=oasaas&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7054386978934439936">#OASaaS</a>, seems rather fitting...<br /><br />There are already a number of OASaaS contenders. Some AltNets formed the <a data-attribute-index="11" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/common-wholesale-platform/">Common Wholesale Platform | CWP </a>in 2020. <a data-attribute-index="13" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/cityfibre/">CityFibre</a> is working on its own ecosystem, with Toob as its first partner. There's also <a data-attribute-index="15" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-fibre-cafe/">The Fibre Café</a>, <a data-attribute-index="17" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/vitrifi/">Vitrifi</a>
& BroadbandHub - as well as TOTSCo which is purely focused on the
one-touch switching process. Not all seem to focus equally on buy and
sell sides.<br /><br />I wonder if agreed standards or specs (or even
regulation) are needed. Perhaps an equivalent to JOTS (Joint Operator
Technical Specification) for shared/mobile infrastructure such as
neutral host systems? We don't want OASaaS to look back in anger...</span></span>
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</div><p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-19970948700563887502023-04-30T09:41:00.000+01:002023-04-30T09:41:00.146+01:00A new view on Neutral Host - the role of cities and municipalities<p></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">Apr 17 on</span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_connectednorth-neutralhost-infrastructure-activity-7053752918721589248-OO6J?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop" target="_blank">It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / subscribe to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><div class="feed-shared-control-menu display-flex
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<span><span dir="ltr">I'm at the <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=connectednorth&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7053752918721589248">#ConnectedNorth</a>
event in Manchester today and tomorrow. There's a lot about gigabit
fibre rollouts and uptake, as well as a big emphasis on connected
communities and cities - but this post is about mobile densification and
small cells.<br /><br />A key theme here is the fast-evolving model for <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=neutralhost&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7053752918721589248">#neutralhost</a>
mobile for small cells and network capacity in-fill in cities. An NH is
a 3rd party wholesale provider which enables multiple tenant 4G/5G
mobile providers - generally MNOs, but also potentially including
private networks as well.<br /><br />A few years ago when I was running NH workshops with <a data-attribute-index="2" data-entity-type="MINI_PROFILE" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/ACoAAAAA-1YBAQyTFXpaxccc-CzrRd73AGxCa9k">Peter Curnow-Ford</a> we identified this area of metro infill as one with potential, but limited actual deployments. <br /><br />There
are numerous challenges - MNOs ideally don't want separate deals with
each city authority, while cities don't want multiple MNOs independently
requesting 100s of sites with associated street clutter, road closures
and soon. Authorities also want to both make money from access to assets
such as lampposts, and to improve connectivity for citizens and
businesses as fast as possible. <br /><br />One option floated was for
authorities to build out their own private 4G/5G networks, then allow
MNOs to roam onto them, or use some sort of MOCN network-sharing
arrangement. But MNOs each have different coverage / capacity holes,
different spectrum bands, different customer groups - and also worry
about security, ability to manage radio units, do carrier aggregation
and so on. The idea of a single cell network in its own spectrum, with
multiple MNO tenants is appealing, but sometimes unworkable. (It might
work OK in villages or indoors, though).<br /><br />What's happening is that
another model is evolving. Local authorities like city councils are
contracting with several infrastrucure specialists - companies like <a data-attribute-index="4" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/cellnexuk/">Cellnex UK</a> , <a data-attribute-index="6" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-freshwave-group/">Freshwave</a>, <a data-attribute-index="8" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ontix/">Ontix</a>, <a data-attribute-index="10" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/bai-communications/">BAI Communications</a> and <a data-attribute-index="12" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/sharedaccess/">Shared Access</a>
to run (essentially) small-cell as a service offers. These act as
intermediaries, allowing local authorities to create standard contracts,
and for MNOs to have standardised processes for getting access at each
site. <br /><br />It reduces the frictions and costs of the paperwork - and
also allows for infrastructure-sharing to evolve over time where it
makes sense. Coupled with vRAN or open RAN it can put some of the
electronics into central facilities, reducing street-side box numbers.
And it means MNOs can get coverage in their preferred locations, with
backhaul/fronthaul and power supplies simplified. <br /><br />The
competitive infraco/towerco angle, rather than exclusive area
concessions, allows MNOs to choose the provider that is the best fit -
and without needing different processes in each city.<br /><br />It's not
quite what I expected NH models to look like - and they may differ in
the US or across Europe - but it seems to make good sense here in the
UK.</span></span></span></div></div></div><p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-41674759725682327942023-04-29T09:24:00.011+01:002023-04-29T09:24:00.142+01:006G convergence or "network of networks" must be bi-directional, not assume a 3GPP umbrella<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7057305946192015360/" target="_blank">It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / subscribe to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">Following on from my (rather controversial) post the other day about <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#6G</a> and <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=imt2030&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#IMT2030</a> needing to be indoor-primary and also have an IEEE / <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#WiFi</a> candidate, I'm now going to *further* annoy various people.<br /><br />There's a lot of talk about 6G being a "network of networks". This follows on from previous similar themes about <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=convergence&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#convergence</a> and <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=hetnets&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#HetNets</a>. At one level I agree, but I think there needs to be a perspective shift.<br /><br />There
has been a long string of attempts to blend Wi-Fi and cellular, going
all the way back to UMA in the 2G/3G era around 2005. (I was a
vociferous critic). <br /><br />There's been a alphabet-zoo of acronyms
covering 3GPP gateway functions or selection/offload approaches - GAN,
ANDSF, TWAG, N3IWF, ATSSS - and probably others I've forgotten. From the
Wi-Fi side there's been Hotspot 2.0 and others. More recently we've
seen an attempt to bridge fixed and mobile networks, even going as far
as pitching 3GPP-type cores for fixed ISPs.<br /><br />Pretty much all of
these have failed to gain traction. They've had limited deployments and
successes here and there, but nobody can claim that true "converged
wireless" is ubiquitous or even common. 99% of WiFi has no connection to
cellular. Genuine "offload" is tiny.<br /><br />But despite this, the 6G
R&D and vision seems to be looking to do it all over again. This
phrase "network of networks" cropped up regularly at the <a data-attribute-index="5" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/6gworld/">6GWorld</a> <a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6gsymposium&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#6Gsymposium</a> events I attended this week. It now usually includes integrating <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=satellite&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#satellite</a> or non-terrestrial (NTN) capabilities as much as Wi-Fi.<br /><br />But
there's a bit of an unstated assumption I think needs to be challenged.
There seems to be unquestioned acceptance that the convergence layer -
or perhaps "umbrella" sheltering all the various technologies is
necessarily the 3GPP core network.<br /><br />I think this is a problem.
Many of the new and emerging 6G stakeholders (for instance enterprises,
satellite operators, or fixed providers) do not understand 3GPP cores,
nor have the almost religious devotion to that model common in the
legacy cellular sector.<br /><br />So I think any "convergence" in IMT2030
must be defined as bi-directional. Yes, Wi-Fi and satellite can slot
into a 3GPP umbrella. But satellite operators need to be able to add
terrestrial 6G as an add-on to their systems, while Wi-Fi controllers
(on-prem or cloud based) should be able to look after "naked"
(core-free) 3GPP radios where appropriate. <br /><br />This would also flow
through to authentication methods, spectrum coordination and so on. Also
it should get reflected in government policy & regulation.<br /><br />My view is that 3GPP-led convergence has largely failed. Maybe it gets fixed in 5G/6G eras, but maybe it won't. We need <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7057305946192015360">#5G</a> and 6G systems to have both northbound and southbound integration options.<br /><br />I
also think we need to recognise that "convergence" is itself only one
example of "combination" of networks. There are numerous other models,
such as bonding or hybrids that connect 2+ separate networks in software
or hardware.</span></span></span><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></span></span></span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-8662616278069882342023-04-28T09:24:00.005+01:002023-04-28T09:28:16.567+01:006G must be indoor-primary and have a Wi-Fi candidate technology<p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr"><b><span style="color: red;">This post originally appeared on my LinkedIn feed, which is now my main platform for both short posts and longer-form articles. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7055857401148657664/" target="_blank">It can be found here</a>, along with the comment stream. Please follow / subscribe to receive regular updates (about 1-3 / week)</span><br /></b></span></span></span></p><p><span class="break-words" style="font-family: arial;"><span><span dir="ltr">I'm giving a lot of thought to <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=6g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#6G</a>
design goals, priorities & technology / policy choices. Important
decisions are coming up. I'll be exploring them in coming weeks and
months. Two important ones I see:<br /><br />- 6G / <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=imt2030&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#IMT2030</a> must be "indoor-primary"<br />- There must be a <a data-attribute-index="2" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ieee/">IEEE</a> / <a data-attribute-index="4" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/wi-fi-alliance/">Wi-Fi Alliance</a> candidate tech for 6G<br /><br />The
first one is self-evident. The vast bulk of mobile use - and an
even-larger % of total wireless use - is indoors. It's inside homes,
offices schools, factories, warehouses, public spaces like malls and
stadia - as well as inside vehicles like trains. Even outdoors, a large %
of usage is on private sites like industrial complexes or hospital
campuses.<br /><br />Roughly 80% of mobile use is indoors - more if you
include wireless streaming to smart TVs and laptops/tablets. By the
2030s 6G era, there will be more indoor wireless use for <a data-attribute-index="6" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=industrialautomation&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#industrialautomation</a>, <a data-attribute-index="7" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=gaming&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#gaming</a>, education, healthcare, <a data-attribute-index="8" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=robotics&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#robotics</a> and <a data-attribute-index="9" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=ar&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#AR</a> / <a data-attribute-index="10" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=vr&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#VR</a> / <a data-attribute-index="11" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=metaverse&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#metaverse</a> and so on.<br /><br />This
implies that economic, social, welfare and cultural upsides will be
indoor-primary. 80%+ of any GDP uplift will be indoor-generated. This
suggests 6G tech design & standards - and associated business models
and regulation - should be indoor-oriented too. <br /><br />The IEEE / <a data-attribute-index="12" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#WiFi</a>
idea follows on from this. The default indoor wireless tech today is
Wi-Fi. There is a lot of indoor cellular use, but currently 5G is
supported poorly - and certainly not everywhere. <br /><br />While 5G and future 6G indoor <a data-attribute-index="13" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=smallcells&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#smallcells</a>, <a data-attribute-index="14" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=neutralhost&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#neutralhost</a>
and repeaters / DAS are evolving fast, *nobody* expects true ubiquity.
Indoor cellular will remain patchy, especially multi-operator. And many
devices (eg TVs) don't have cellular radios anyway.<br /><br />This means that WiFi - likely future <a data-attribute-index="15" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi8&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#WiFi8</a> and <a data-attribute-index="16" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=wifi9&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7055857401148657664">#WiFi9</a>
- will remain central to in-building connectivity in the 6G era, no
matter how good the tech for reconfigurable surfaces or other cellular
innovations become.<br /><br />IEEE decided not to pitch WiFi6 formally for
5G / IMT2020, but instead just show it surpassed all the metrics. But
"we could have done it if we wanted" isn't good enough. There are no
government-funded "WiFi Testbed Programs" or "WiFi Innovation Centres of
Excellence" because of this lower visibility. <br /><br />Governments are
ITU members and listen to it. If policymakers want the benefits of full
connectivity, they need to support it with spectrum, targets and
funding, across *all* indoor options. <br /><br />And if the WiFi industry
wants full / easy access to new resources, it needs to be an official 6G
/ IMT2030 technology. It needs access to IMT licensed spectrum,
especially for local licenses with AFC. <br /><br />This idea will be very
unpopular among both cellular industry (3GPP pretends it is the "keeper
of the G's") and the WiFi sector, which sees it as a lot of extra work
& politics. <br /><br />But I think it's essential for IMT2030 to
embrace network diversity, plus ownership- & business-model
diversity as central elements of 6G.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-11722553252055644752023-02-23T09:23:00.008+00:002023-02-23T09:23:50.141+00:00Local networks: when telecoms becomes "pericoms"<p><b style="color: red; font-family: arial;">Published via my LinkedIn Newsletter - <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/local-networks-telecoms-pericoms-dean-bubley/" target="_blank">see here to subscribe / see comment thread</a></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks" dir="ltr">
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
"Telecoms" or "telecommunications" is based on the Greek prefix "tele-".
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
It means "at a distance, or far-off". It is familiar from its use in
other terms such as telegraph, television or teleport. And for
telecoms, that makes sense - we generally make phone calls to people
across medium or long distances, or send then messages. Even our
broadband connections generally tend to link to distant datacentres. The
WWW is, by definition, worldwide.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The word "communications" actually comes from a Latin root, meaning
to impart or share. Which at the time, would obviously have been done
mostly through talking to other people directly, but could also have
involved writing or other distance-independent methods.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
This means that distant <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/communications">#communications</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/telecoms">#telecoms</a>, has some interesting properties:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The 2+ distant ends are often (but not always) on different <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/networks">#networks</a>. Interconnection is therefore often essential.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Connecting
distant points tends to mean there's a good chunk of infrastructure in
between them, owned by someone other than the users. They have to pay
for it, somehow.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Because the communications path is distant, it
usually makes sense for the control points (switches and so on) to be
distant as well. And because there's typically payment involved, the
billing and other business functions also need to be sited "somewhere",
probably in a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/datacentre">#datacentre</a>, which is also distant.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There
are a whole host of opportunities and risks with distant
communications, that mean that governments take a keen interest. There
are often licenses, regulations and internal public-sector uses -
notably emergency services.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The infrastructure usually crosses
the "public domain" - streets, airwaves, rooftops, dedicated tower sites
and so on. That brings additional stakeholders and rule-makers into the
system.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Involving third parties tends to suggest some sort of "service" model of delivery, or perhaps government subsidy / provision.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Competition
authorities need to take into account huge investments and limited
capacity/scope for multiple networks. That also tends to reduce the
number of suppliers to the market.</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
That is <strong>telecommunications </strong>- <em>distant communications</em>.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
But now consider the opposite - <em>nearby communications</em>.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Examples could include a private 5G network in a factory, a LAN in
an office, a WiFi connection in the home, a USB cable, or a Bluetooth
headset with a phone. There are plenty of other examples, especially for
IoT.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
These nearby examples have very different characteristics to telecoms:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Endpoints are likely to be on the same network, without interconnection</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There's usually nobody else's infrastructure involved, except perhaps a building owner's ducts and cabinets.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Any control points will generally be close - or perhaps not needed at all, as the devices work peer-to-peer.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There's
relatively little involvement of the "public domain", unless there are
risks like radio interference beyond the network boundaries.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">It's
not practical for governments to intervene too much in local
communications - especially when it occurs on private property, or
inside a building or machine.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There might be a service provider,
but equally the whole system could be owned outright by the user, or
embedded into another larger system like a robot or vehicle.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Competition is less of an issue, as is supplier diversity. You can buy 10 USB cables from different suppliers if you want.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Low-power, shared or unlicensed spectrum is typical for local <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/wireless">#wireless</a> networks.</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I've been trying to work out a good word for this. Although "<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/telecommunications">#telecommunications</a>"
is itself an awkward Greek / Latin hybrid I think the best prefix might
be Greek again - "peri" which means "around", "close" or "surrounding" -
think of perimeter, peripheral, or the perigee of an orbit.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
So I'm coining the term <strong>pericommunications</strong>, to mean <em>nearby or local connectivity</em>. (If you want to stick to all-Latin, then proxicommunications would work quite well too).
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Just because a company is involved in telecoms does not mean it necessarily can expect a role in <em>pericoms </em>as well. (Or indeed, vice versa). It certainly <em>can</em> participate in that market, but there may be fewer synergies than you might imagine.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Some telcos are also established and successful <em>pericos </em>as well. Many home broadband providers have done an excellent job with providing whole-home <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/wifi">#WiFi</a>
systems with mesh technology, for example. In-building mobile coverage
systems in large venues are often led by one telco, with others
onboarding as secondary operators.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
But other nearby domains are trickier for telcos to address. You
don't expect to get your earbuds as an accessory from your mobile
operator - or indeed, pay extra for them. Attempts to add-on wearables
as an extra SIM on a smartphone account have had limited success.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
And the idea of running on-premise enterprise private networks as a
"slice" of the main 4G/5G macro RAN has clearly failed to gain traction,
for a variety of reasons. The more successful operators are addressing
private wireless in much the same way as other integrators and
specialist SPs, although they can lean on their internal spectrum team,
test engineers and other groups to help.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Some are now "going the extra mile" (sorry for the pun) for
pericoms. Vodafone has just announced its prototype 5G mini
base-station, the size of a Wi-Fi access point based on a Raspberry Pi
and a Lime Microsystems radio chip. It can support a small <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/5g">#5G</a> standalone core and is even <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/openran">#OpenRAN</a>
compliant. Other operators have selected new vendors or partners for
campus 4G/5G deployments. The 4 UK MNOs have defined a set of shared
in-building design guidelines for neutral-host networks.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
It can be hard for regulators and policymakers to grasp the
differences, however. The same is true for consultants and lobbyists. An
awful lot of the suggested upsides of 5G (or other forms of
connectivity) have been driven by a tele-mindset rather than a
peri-view.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I could make a very strong argument that countries should really
have a separate pericoms regulator, or a dedicated unit within the
telecoms regulator and ministry. The stakeholders, national interests
and economics are completely different.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
A similar set of differences can be seen in <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/edgecomputing">#edgecomputing</a>:
regional datacentres and telco MEC are still "tele". On-premise servers
or on-device CPUs and GPUs are peri-computing, with very different
requirements and economics. Trying to blur the boundary doesn't work
well at present - most people don't even recognise it exists.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Overall, we need to stop assuming that <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/pericoms">#pericoms</a> is merely a subset of <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/telecoms">#telecoms</a>. It isn't - it's almost completely different, even if it uses some of the same underlying components and protocols.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><em>(If this viewpoint is novel or interesting and you would like to
explore it further and understand what it means for your organisation -
or get a presentation or keynote about it at an event - please get in
touch with me</em>)
</span></p>
</div>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-6331386214475218992023-02-09T09:15:00.004+00:002023-02-23T09:19:54.749+00:00What does an AI think about Net Neutrality?<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: red;">Originally published on my LinkedIn Newsletter, 9th Feb 2023. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-does-ai-think-net-neutrality-dean-bubley/" target="_blank">See here for comment thread</a></span></b></span></p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks" dir="ltr">
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Two very important trends are occurring in tech I'm following at the moment, so I thought it might be fun to combine them:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The emergence of <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/generativeai">#GenerativeAI</a>, for answering questions, generating images and sounds, and potentially a whole lot more. <a data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/openai/">OpenAI</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/chatgpt">#ChatGPT</a>
is the current best-known, but there are dozens of others using
language models, transformers & other techniques. Some people are
suggesting it will redefine web search - and potentially an awful lot
more than that. Some even see it as a pivotal shift in technology,
society and "skilled" employment.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The re-emergence of discussions around <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/netneutrality">#NetNeutrality</a> and associated regulation relating to technology platforms, telcos and networks, like the ridiculous (un)<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/fairshare">#fairshare</a> & <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/internettraffictax">#InternetTrafficTax</a> concept being pitched in Europe by lobbyists. In the UK, <a data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ofcom/">Ofcom</a>
recently concluded a consultation on whether changes to NN rules should
be made (I sent in a reply myself - I'll discuss it another time).</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
So, I asked ChatGPT what it thought about NN, over a series of
questions. I specifically focused on whether it helps or hinders
innovation.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The transcript is below, but some thoughts from me first:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The text is good. Almost alarmingly good. I found myself
saying "good point" a few times. This is probably because it gives
reasons in fairly long lists, not just "3 bulletpoints for a slide".</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">It seems pretty even-handed, with "proponents say this, others say that"</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">You
can sense that its training base tends to give it "common" responses
and frequently-cited arguments. That doesn't mean they're wrong, but it
can lack nuance, or repeat some common *fallacies* as well.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The long-list approach and comments is quite good at highlighting the need for <i>multiple </i>approaches
& reconciling them. A single statistical approach isn't enough -
there are also qualitative questions to ask, surveys to undertake and
multiple angles to absorb. ChatGPT understands the issue is complex,
even if it cannot resolve the complexity itself. Simple answers are
wrong.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">I was particularly impressed with the response to my question on cross-border effects, and to separating NN vs. funding effects.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">It
struggled with the last question, about Internet and non-Internet
innovation. EDIT: I just realised that it ignored my typo, and
understood that I meant "directly" when I wrote "direct" in my question</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">I'd
be very worried if I did bog-standard "content generation" for
clickbait blogs, "bucketshop" market research, or corporate social
posts. This is all perfectly-usable general blurb if you need slabs of
text nobody is going to really delve into too deeply.</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
All that said, I don't think this is (yet) a gamechanger in terms of
analysis and argument. It's good for collating a lot of "food for
thought", but as others have pointed out, it can also be "confidently
wrong", sometimes in amusing ways.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In a separate chat, I asked it for a contrarian's view of <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/5g">#5G</a> use-cases. While it was right on some things (<i>"Some argue that the vast majority of </i><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/iot">#IoT</a><i> devices do not require the high speed and low latency that 5G provides and that the hype around IoT is overblown."</i>) others were less convincing: (<i>"Some
argue that 5G may not provide the low latency and high reliability that
is being promised, and that there are other technologies, such as wired
connections, that are better suited for applications such as autonomous
vehicles"). </i>If there's one thing less relevant to self-driving cars than 5G, it's fixed broadband!
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Anyway - enjoy the debate treanscribed in full, below.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
(<i>Note: the image for this article came from Stable
Diffusion, when I asked for a picture showing "An advanced AI debating
Net Neutrality"</i>)
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZpss-63dMZJPUpzUi8pfKm1YV_PjVzk1LNDvSsaNkKqb40zWPJUN0Y8yPDJxcxfZBC9jKeUTjtpNTelAf49Od14TVBrqwZNrndwHB8_01Pq81BYx_aFWFOkqeCADGQiZ20AG8VZgiOSBfmMBpaR24-7s57CGhrQBmf4K4FbMMg8WYFNCfig/s768/stable%20diffusion%20-%20NN%20vs%20AI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="768" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZpss-63dMZJPUpzUi8pfKm1YV_PjVzk1LNDvSsaNkKqb40zWPJUN0Y8yPDJxcxfZBC9jKeUTjtpNTelAf49Od14TVBrqwZNrndwHB8_01Pq81BYx_aFWFOkqeCADGQiZ20AG8VZgiOSBfmMBpaR24-7s57CGhrQBmf4K4FbMMg8WYFNCfig/s320/stable%20diffusion%20-%20NN%20vs%20AI.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
<p></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<b style="font-family: arial;">Me: Does net neutrality help innovation?</b>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>ChatGPT: </b>Net neutrality has been a topic of much
debate, with proponents arguing that it promotes innovation and others
arguing that it stifles it.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Proponents of net neutrality argue that it helps to level the
playing field for new entrants and small businesses by preventing
Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from discriminating against certain
types of traffic or services. This, in turn, encourages innovation, as
entrepreneurs and startups are free to bring new products and services
to market without fear of being blocked or slowed down by ISPs.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
On the other hand, opponents of net neutrality argue that it creates
a regulatory burden that stifles innovation and investment in the
broadband industry. They argue that without the ability to prioritize
different types of traffic, ISPs will be unable to effectively manage
their networks and may be forced to limit investment in new
infrastructure and technologies.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Ultimately, the impact of net neutrality on innovation is a complex
and highly debated issue, and there is no clear consensus on whether it
helps or hurts innovation. However, proponents of net neutrality
generally believe that it promotes a free and open internet that
supports innovation and competition, while opponents believe that it
imposes unnecessary regulation that stifles growth and investment.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<b style="font-family: arial;">Me: What research is necessary to reach a better conclusion?</b>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>ChatGPT:</b> To reach a more definitive conclusion on
the impact of net neutrality on innovation, several types of research
would be necessary, including:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ol><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Economic studies: Economic studies could analyze the impact
of net neutrality regulations on investment and innovation in the
broadband industry, as well as the impact on consumer prices and access
to broadband services.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Case studies: Case studies of countries
or regions with and without net neutrality regulations could provide
valuable insights into the real-world effects of these regulations on
innovation and investment in the broadband industry.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Surveys and
interviews: Surveys and interviews with entrepreneurs, startups, and
industry experts could provide insights into the impact of net
neutrality on the ability of new entrants to bring new products and
services to market.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Technical studies: Technical studies could
examine the impact of net neutrality regulations on network management
and traffic prioritization, and assess the potential impact on network
performance, reliability, and security.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Long-term data analysis:
Long-term data analysis could track changes in investment, innovation,
and consumer prices over time in regions with and without net neutrality
regulations, providing valuable insights into the long-term impact of
these regulations.</span></li></ol>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Overall, a comprehensive and multi-disciplinary approach to
research, combining economic, case study, survey, technical, and data
analysis methods, would be necessary to reach a more definitive
conclusion on the impact of net neutrality on innovation.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<b style="font-family: arial;">Me: How would you measure innovation in this context?</b>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>ChatGPT: </b>Measuring the impact of net neutrality on
innovation is a complex task, as innovation can take many forms and can
be difficult to quantify. However, several metrics could be used to
measure innovation in this context, including:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ol><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Investment in research and development (R&D): This could
be measured by tracking the amount of investment in R&D by
broadband companies and startups, as well as the number of patents filed
in relevant areas.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">New product and service launches: This could
be measured by tracking the number of new products and services
introduced by broadband companies and startups, as well as the market
adoption and success of these offerings.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Entrepreneurial
activity: This could be measured by tracking the number of new startups
founded in the broadband industry, as well as the success of these
startups in attracting investment and bringing new products and services
to market.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Consumer benefits: This could be measured by
tracking changes in consumer prices, access to broadband services, and
the availability of new and innovative online services and applications.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Network
performance and reliability: This could be measured by tracking changes
in network speed, latency, and uptime, as well as the ability of
networks to handle new and innovative applications and services.</span></li></ol>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
While these metrics are not exhaustive, they provide a good starting
point for measuring the impact of net neutrality on innovation in the
broadband industry. By tracking changes in these metrics over time in
regions with and without net neutrality regulations, researchers could
gain valuable insights into the impact of these regulations on
innovation.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<b style="font-family: arial;">Me: A lot of those metrics are international. More regions
with net neutrality might increase innovation globally, not locally. How
do you account for that?</b>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>ChatGPT: </b>You are correct, some of the metrics
mentioned could be influenced by factors beyond the borders of a single
region. To account for this, it would be important to consider both the
local and global impact of net neutrality on innovation.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
For example, to measure the local impact of net neutrality,
researchers could compare the metrics mentioned in regions with and
without net neutrality regulations, taking into account factors such as
the local economy, cultural and regulatory environment, and the state of
the broadband industry in each region. This would provide valuable
insights into the specific impact of net neutrality on innovation within
those regions.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
To measure the global impact of net neutrality, researchers could
compare these metrics on a global scale, taking into account factors
such as the state of the global economy, the state of the broadband
industry globally, and the regulatory environment in different regions.
This would provide a broader perspective on the impact of net neutrality
on innovation globally, and could help to identify any trends or
patterns that may not be apparent from a regional analysis alone.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Overall, it is important to consider both the local and global
impact of net neutrality on innovation to gain a complete and accurate
understanding of the impact of these regulations on the broadband
industry and innovation more broadly.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<b style="font-family: arial;">Me: How would we know if net neutrality had a larger effect on innovation than availability of financing for startups?</b>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>ChatGPT:</b> Determining the relative impact of net
neutrality versus the availability of financing on innovation can be
challenging, as these factors are often interrelated and can have
complex and interconnected effects. However, several approaches could be
used to isolate the impact of each factor, including:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ol><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparative studies: Researchers could compare regions with
and without net neutrality regulations, but with similar levels of
financing available for startups. By controlling for the availability of
financing, researchers could isolate the impact of net neutrality on
innovation.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Historical analysis: Researchers could analyze data
from periods of time when net neutrality regulations were in place or
not in place, and compare this data with changes in the availability of
financing for startups. This would help to identify any correlations
between net neutrality and innovation, independent of changes in
financing.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Causal inference methods: Researchers could use
causal inference methods, such as regression analysis, to model the
relationship between net neutrality, financing, and innovation, while
controlling for other factors that could influence these relationships.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Survey
and interview-based research: Researchers could survey and interview
startups, entrepreneurs, and industry experts to gain insights into the
relative importance of net neutrality and financing for innovation. This
would provide valuable qualitative data to complement the quantitative
data obtained from other research methods.</span></li></ol>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Overall, a multi-disciplinary and multi-method approach,
incorporating comparative studies, historical analysis, causal inference
methods, and survey and interview-based research, would be necessary to
determine the relative impact of net neutrality and financing on
innovation in a robust and comprehensive manner.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<b style="font-family: arial;">Me: How do you distinguish innovations that direct relate to
Internet access, compared to those which involve non-Internet
applications and technologies?</b>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>ChatGPT: </b>Distinguishing innovations that directly
relate to Internet access versus those that involve non-Internet
applications and technologies can be challenging, as many innovations
are influenced by both Internet access and non-Internet technologies.
However, several approaches could be used to differentiate these types
of innovations, including:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ol><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Technical classification: Innovations could be classified
based on their underlying technologies, with innovations that rely
primarily on Internet access being classified as Internet-related
innovations and innovations that rely primarily on non-Internet
technologies being classified as non-Internet-related innovations.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Market
classification: Innovations could be classified based on the markets
they serve, with innovations that serve primarily Internet-based
markets, such as online commerce or online communication, being
classified as Internet-related innovations and innovations that serve
primarily non-Internet-based markets, such as manufacturing or
agriculture, being classified as non-Internet-related innovations.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">End-user
classification: Innovations could be classified based on their
end-users, with innovations that are primarily designed for use by
individuals accessing the Internet being classified as Internet-related
innovations and innovations that are primarily designed for use by
individuals not accessing the Internet being classified as
non-Internet-related innovations.</span></li></ol>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
It is important to note that these classifications are not mutually
exclusive, and that many innovations may have elements of both
Internet-related and non-Internet-related technologies, markets, and
end-users. Nevertheless, using these classifications can provide
valuable insights into the extent to which innovations are influenced by
Internet access, and can help to distinguish Internet-related
innovations from non-Internet-related innovations.
</span></p>
</div><p><b style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: red;"> </span></b></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-82394619917032280202023-01-12T09:08:00.005+00:002023-02-23T09:15:04.400+00:00Workarounds, hacks & alternatives to network QoS<p><b style="color: red; font-family: arial;">Originally published Jan 12th 2023 on my LinkedIn Newsletter - <a href="Workarounds, hacks & alternatives to network QoS" target="_blank">see here for comments </a></b></p><p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sometimes, upgrading the network isn't the answer to every problem.
</span></p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks" dir="ltr">
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
For as long as I can remember, the telecom industry has talked about
quality-of-service, both on fixed and mobile networks. There has always
been discussion around "fast lanes", "bit-rate guarantees" and more
recently "network slicing". Videoconferencing and VoIP were touted as
needing priority QoS, for instance. </span></p><p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVdWmXd_rIhCYwB0GoybBuX2hCTthjYQN-DT5NCz_DerC5VKzWOTC-rxu2jF_UKKjfWFBFfcaITfru0Y0akMzT2g-jpbjHgn_EKtB5anT0XmSXufMHusm_ToDXQMyVdiM5GjvrmldfQuu0r12PzKyzP7tWLJ2nMWTpjT0MbNNPG8vXvE_z3Q/s1920/eye-931978_1920.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1920" data-original-width="1920" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVdWmXd_rIhCYwB0GoybBuX2hCTthjYQN-DT5NCz_DerC5VKzWOTC-rxu2jF_UKKjfWFBFfcaITfru0Y0akMzT2g-jpbjHgn_EKtB5anT0XmSXufMHusm_ToDXQMyVdiM5GjvrmldfQuu0r12PzKyzP7tWLJ2nMWTpjT0MbNNPG8vXvE_z3Q/s320/eye-931978_1920.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>There have also always been predictions about future needs of
innovative applications, which would at a minimum need much higher
downlink and uplink speeds (justifying the next generation of access
technology), but also often tighter requirements on latency or
predictability.
<p></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Cloud gaming would need millisecond-level latency, connected cars would send terabytes of data across the network and so on.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
We see it again today, with predictions for metaverse applications
adding yet more zeroes - we'll have 8K screens in front of our eyes,
running at 120 frames per second, with Gbps speeds and sub-millisecond
latencies need to avoid nausea or other nasty effects. So we'll need 6G
to be designed to cope.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The issue is that many in the network industry often don't realise
that not every technical problem needs a network-based solution, with
smarter core network policies and controls, or huge extra capacity over
the radio-network (and the attendant extra spectrum and sites to go with
it).
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Often, there are other non-network solutions that achieve (roughly)
the same effects and outcomes. There's a mix of approaches, each with
different levels of sophistication and practicality. Some are elegant
technical designs. Others are best described as "Heath Robinson" or
"MacGyver" approaches, depending on which side of the Atlantic you live.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I think they can be classified into four groups:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>Software: </strong>Most obviously, a lot of data can
be compressed. Buffers can be used to smooth out fluctuations. Clever
techniques can correct for dropped or delayed packets. There's a lot
more going on here though - some examples are described below.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>Hardware / physical:</strong>
Some problems have a "real world" workaround. Sending someone a USB
memory stick is a (high latency) alternative to sending large volumes of
data across a network. Phones with dual SIM-slots (or, now, eSIM
profiles) allow coverage gaps or excess costs to be arbitraged. </span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>Architectural:</strong>
What's better? One expensive QoS-managed connection, or two cheaper
unmanaged ones bonded together or used for diverse routing? The success
of SDWAN provides a clue. Another example is the use of onboard compute
(and Moore's Law) in vehicles, rather than processing telemetry data in
the cloud or network-edge. In-built sound and image recognition in smart
speakers or phones is a similar approach to distributed-compute
architecture. That may have an extra benefit of privacy, too.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>Behavioural: </strong>The
other set of workaround exploit human psychology. Setting expectations -
or warning of possible glitches - is often preferable to fixing or
apologising for problems after they occur. Skype was one of the first
communications apps to warn of dodgy connections - and also had the
ability to reconnect when the network performance improved. Compare that
with a normal PSTN/VoLTE call drop - it might have network QoS, but if
you lose signal in an elevator, you won't get a warning, apology or a
simplified reconnection.</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
These aren't cure-alls. Obviously if you're running a factory, you'd
prefer not to have the automation system cough politely and quietly
tell you to expect some downtime because of a network issue. And we
certainly *will* need more bandwidth for some future immersive
experiences, especially for uplink video in mixed reality.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
But recently I've come across a few examples of clever workarounds
or hacks, that people in the network/telecom industry probably wouldn't
have anticipated. They potentially reduce the opportunity for "monetised
QoS", or reduce future network capacity or coverage requirements, by
shifting the burden from traffic to something else.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The first example relates to the bandwidth needs for AR/VR/metaverse
connectivity - although I first saw this mentioned in the context of
videoconferencing a few years ago. It's called "<strong>foveated rendering</strong>".
(The fovea is the most dense part of the eye's retina). In essence, it
uses the in-built eye tracking in headsets or good quality cameras. The
system know what part of a screen or virtual environment you are
focusing on, and reduces the resolution or frame-rate of the other
sections in your peripheral vision. Why waste compute or network
capacity on large swathes of an image that you're not actually noticing?
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I haven't seen many "metaverse bandwidth requirement" predictions
take account of this. They all just count the pixels & frame rate
and multiply up to the largest number - usually in the multi-Gbps range.
Hey presto, a 6G use-case! But perhaps don't build your business case
around it yet...
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Network latency and jitter is another area where there are growing
numbers of plausible workarounds. In theory, lots of applications such
as gaming require low latency connections. But actually, they mostly
require <em>consistent </em>and <em>predictable </em>but low-ish
latency. A player needs to have a well-defined experience, and
especially for multi-player games there needs to be fairness.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The gaming industry - and also other sectors including future
metaverse apps - have created a suite of clever approaches to dealing
with network issues, as well as more fundamental problems where some
players are remote and there are hard speed-of-light constraints. They
can monitor latency, and actually adjust and <em>balance</em> the lags experienced by participants, even if it means slowing some participants.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
There are also numerous techniques for predicting or anticipating
movements and actions, so network-delivered data might not be needed
continually. AI software can basically "fill in the gaps", and even
compensate for some sorts of errors if needed. Similar concepts are used
for "packet loss concealment" in VoIP or video transmissions. Apps can
even subtly speed up or slow down streams to allow people to "catch up"
with each other, or have the <em>same</em> latency even when distributed across the world.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
We can expect much more of this type of software-based mitigation of
network flaws in future. We may even get to the point where sending
full video/image data is unnecessary - maybe we just store a
high-quality 3D image of someone's face and room (with lighting) and
just send a few bytes describing what's happening. "<em>Dean turned his
head left by 23degrees, adopted a sarcastic expression and said 'who
needs QoS and gigabit anyway?' A cloud outside the window cast a
dramatic shadow half a second later</em>". It's essentially a more
sophisticated version of Siri + Instagram filters + ChatGPT. (Yes, I
know I'm massively oversimplyifying, but you get the direction of travel
here).
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The last example is a bit more left-field. I did some work last year
on wireless passenger connectivity on trains. There's a huge amount of
complexity and technical effort being done on dedicated trackside
wireless networks, improving MNO 5G coverage along railways, on-train
repeaters for better signal and passenger Wi-Fi using multi-SIM (or even
satellite) gateways. None of these are easy or cheap - the reality is
that there will be a mix of dedicated and public network connectivity,
with cities and rural areas getting different performance, and each
generation of train having different systems. Worse, the coated windows
of many new trains, needed for anti-glare and insulation, effectively
act as Faraday cages, blocking outdoor/indoor wireless signals.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
It's really hard to take existing rolling-stock out of service for
complex retrofits, install anything along operational tracks / inside
tunnels, and anything electronic like repeaters or new access points
need a huge set of certifications and installation procedures.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
So I was really surprised when I went to the TrainComms conference
last year and heard three big train operators say they were looking at a
new way to improve wireless performance for their passengers.
Basically, someone very clever realised that it's possible to laser-etch
the windows with a fine grid of lines - which makes them more
transparent to 4G/5G, without changing the thermal or visual properties
very much. And that can be done much more quickly and easily for
in-service trains, one window at a time.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I have to say, I wasn't expecting a network QoS vs. Glazing Technology battle, and I suspect few others did either.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The story here is that while network upgrades and QoS are important,
there are often highly inventive workarounds - and very motivated
software, hardware and materials-science specialists hoping to solve the
same problems via a different path.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Do you think a metaverse app developer would rather work on a cool
"foveated rendering" approach, or deal with 800 sets of network APIs and
telco lawyers to obtain QoS contracts instead? And how many
team-building exercises just involve hiring a high-quality boat to go
across a lake, rather than working out how to build rafts from barrels
and planks?
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
We'll certainly need faster, more reliable, lower-latency networks.
But we need to be aware that they're not the only source of solutions,
and that payments and revenue uplift for network performance and QoS are
not pre-ordained.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/qos">#QoS</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/networks">#Networks</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/regulation">#Regulation</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/netneutrality">#NetNeutrality</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/5g">#5G</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/fttx">#FTTX</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/metaverse">#metaverse</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/videoconferencing">#videoconferencing</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/networkslicing">#networkslicing</a> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/6g">#6G</a></span>
</p>
</div><p><b style="color: red; font-family: arial;"> </b></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-44519852187725066202022-07-24T10:22:00.000+01:002022-07-24T10:22:02.660+01:00New Report on Enterprise Wi-Fi: No, 5G is not enough<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words"><span><span dir="ltr"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Initially posted <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_enterprise-wi-fi-67-is-here-to-stay-5g-activity-6955929182686052353-yYcx?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web" target="_blank">on LinkedIn, here</a>. Probably best to use LI for comments & discussion)</span> <br /></span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words"><span><span dir="ltr">Published this week: my full <a data-attribute-index="0" data-entity-hovercard-id="urn:li:fs_miniCompany:635215" data-entity-type="MINI_COMPANY" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/stl-partners/">STL Partners</a> report on Enterprise Wi-Fi. <a href="https://stlpartners.com/research/enterprise-wi-fi-6-7-5g-is-not-enough/">Click here</a> to get the full summary & extract.<br /><br />Key takeout: Telcos, MNOs & other service providers need to take Wi-Fi6 , 6E & (soon) 7 much more seriously. So do policymakers.<br /></span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words"><span><span dir="ltr">5G is not enough for solving enterprises' connectivity problems on its own. It has important roles, especially in Private 5G guise, but cannot replace Wi-Fi in the majority of situations. They will coexist.<br /><br />Wi-Fi will remain central to most businesses' on-site connectivity needs, especially indoors, for employees, guests and IoT systems. <br /><br />Telcos
should support Wi-Fi more fully. They need a full toolkit to drive
relevance in enterprise, not just a 5G hammer & pretend everything
is a nail. CIOs and network purchasers know what they want - and it's
not 5G hype or slice-wash.<br /><br />Newer versions of Wi-Fi
solve many of the oft-cited challenges of legacy systems, and are often
a better fit with existing IT and networks (and staff skills) than 5G,
whether private or public. </span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words"><span></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlpn0_390Od5UxqmadowH8PXAzaBYElfICIVdPhNJ14Mu77Wma2fjcfR9bM5X2uS8c9d96bn_GI3ovb4qDvEAcEx9hR3iO1RfvuQjSAy5-FSYf9fBH-sM0ft3Ent5x70qYm0f4NyaU3zP8O-b-W_vmAjb9aukd2moTaB2mBUbdc905wK5ITw/s3724/Wi-Fi%20evolution.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1806" data-original-width="3724" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlpn0_390Od5UxqmadowH8PXAzaBYElfICIVdPhNJ14Mu77Wma2fjcfR9bM5X2uS8c9d96bn_GI3ovb4qDvEAcEx9hR3iO1RfvuQjSAy5-FSYf9fBH-sM0ft3Ent5x70qYm0f4NyaU3zP8O-b-W_vmAjb9aukd2moTaB2mBUbdc905wK5ITw/s320/Wi-Fi%20evolution.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span dir="ltr"><br /><br />Deterministic latency, greater
reliability and higher density of devices make 6/6E/7 more suitable for
many demanding industrial and cloud-centric applications, especially in
countries where 6GHz spectrum is available. Like 5G it's not a universal
solution, but has far greater potential than some mobile industry
zealots seem to think.<br /><br />Some recommendations:<br /><br />- Study the roadmaps for Wi-Fi versions & enhancements carefully. There's a lot going on over the next couple of years.<br />-
CSP executives should ensure that 5G "purists" do not control efforts
on technology strategy, regulatory engagement, standards or marketing. <br />- Instead, push a vision of "network diversity", not an unrealistic monoculture. (Read my recent skeptical post on slicing, too)<br />-
Don't compare old versions of Wi-Fi with future versions of 5G. It is
more reasonable to compare Wi-Fi 6 performance with 5G Release 15, or
future Wi-Fi 7 with Rel17 (and note: it will arrive much earlier)<br />-
5G & Wi-Fi will sometimes be converged... and sometimes kept
separate (diverged). Depends on the context, applications & multiple
other factors. Don't overemphasise convergence anchored in 3GPP cores.<br />- Consider new service opportunities from OpenRoaming, motion-sensing and mesh enhancements. <br />-
The Wi-Fi industry itself is getting better at addressing specific
vertical sectors, but still needs more focus and communication on
individual industries<br />- There should be far more "Wi-Fi for Vertical X, Y, Z" associations, events and articles.<br />- Downplay clunky & privacy-invasive Wi-Fi "monetisation" platforms for venues and transport networks.<br />-
Policymakers & regulators should look at "Advanced Connectivity" as
a whole, not focus solely on 5G. Issue 6GHz spectrum for unlicenced
use, ideally the whole band<br />- Support Wi-Fi for local licensed spectrum bands (maybe WiFi8). Look at 60GHz opportunities. <br />- Insist Wi-Fi included as an IMT2030 / 6G candidate.<br /><br /><a href="https://stlpartners.com/research/enterprise-wi-fi-6-7-5g-is-not-enough/">See link for report</a> extract & Exec Summary<br /><br /><br /></span><p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-69429725012049859262022-07-14T10:59:00.001+01:002022-07-14T10:59:16.597+01:00Network Slicing is a huge error for the 5G industry<p><span style="font-family: arial;">(Initially posted <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_5g-networkslicing-mobile-activity-6953277702443290624-lYvC?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web" target="_blank">on LinkedIn, here</a>. Probably best to use LI for comments & discussion)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words"><span><span dir="ltr">I've started calling myself a "Slice Denier" or "Slicing Skeptic" on client calls and conference speeches on <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6953277702443290624">#5G</a>. <br /><br />Increasingly, I believe that <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=networkslicing&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6953277702443290624">#NetworkSlicing</a> is one of the worst strategic errors made by the <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=mobile&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6953277702443290624">#mobile</a> industry, since the catastrophic choice of IMS for communications applications. The latter has led to the fiascos of <a data-attribute-index="3" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=volte&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6953277702443290624">#VoLTE</a> and <a data-attribute-index="4" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=rcs&highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6953277702443290624">#RCS</a>, and loss of relevance of telcos in communications more broadly.<br /><br />At
best, slicing is an internal toolset that might allow telco operations
or product teams (or their vendors) to manage their network resources.
For instance, it could be used to separate part of a cell's capacity for
FWA, and dynamically adjust that according to demand. It might be used
as an "ingredient" to create a higher class of service for enterprise
customers, for instance for trucks on a highway, or as part of an "IoT
service" sold by MNOs. Public safety users might have an expensive,
artisanal "hand-carved" slice which is almost a separate network. Maybe
next-gen MVNOs.<br /><br />(I'm talking proper 3GPP slicing here - not
rebranded QoS QCI classes, private APNs, or something that looks like a
VLAN, which will probably get marketed as "slices")<br /><br />But the idea
that slicing is itself a *product*, or that application developers or
enterprises will "buy a slice" is delusional. <br /><br />Firstly, slices
will be dependent on [good] coverage and network control. A URLLC slice
likely won't work reliably indoors, underground, in remote areas, on a
train, on a neutral-host network, or while roaming. This has been a
basic failure of every differentiated-QoS monetisation concept for many
years, and 5G's often-higher frequencies make it worse, not better.<br /><br />Secondly,
there is no mature machinery for buying, selling, testing, supporting.
price, monitoring slices. No, the 5G Network Exposure Function won't do
it all. I haven't met a Slice salesperson yet, or a Slice-procurement
team.<br /><br />Thirdly, a "local slice" of a national 5G network will run
headlong into a battle with the desire for separate private/dedicated
local 5G networks, which may well be cheaper and easier. It also won't
work well with the enterprise's IT/OT/IP domains, out of the box.<br /><br />Also
there's many challenges getting multi-operator slices, device OS links
to slice APIs, slice "boundary controllers" between operators, aligning
RAN and core slices, regulatory questionmarks and much more.<br /><br />To
use an appropriate analogy, consider an actual toaster, with settings
for different timing, or a setting for bagels. Now imagine Toaster 5.0
with extra software smarts, perhaps cloud-native. Nobody wants to buy a
single slice of toast, or a software profile. They'll just buy a toaster
for their kitchen, or or get an "integrated breakfast solution"
including toast in a cafe. They won't care about the slicing software.
The chef might, but it's doubtful.<br /><br />If you see 5G Network Slicing
as a centrepiece of future "monetisation", you're in for an unpleasant
smell of burning, and probably a blaring smoke alarm too.</span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="break-words"><span><span dir="ltr"></span></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkE_HfWgBeJ0raGUBLiGa3BtbzvmKnH6bA4rQz9OldzIDLk2Xbu1_hTekc8Vu9-XBRNS6jtSl8IgJpzzHLttybhd7owTfktSeoPK2F2EaWPksnRwKTpo4oI8tOwvZPoAdZ87KQt2iIKzHxNJuEJHe0cdH5KzSnsxKwhV7flu1qAirP2QcSYQ/s1280/bread-315949_1280.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkE_HfWgBeJ0raGUBLiGa3BtbzvmKnH6bA4rQz9OldzIDLk2Xbu1_hTekc8Vu9-XBRNS6jtSl8IgJpzzHLttybhd7owTfktSeoPK2F2EaWPksnRwKTpo4oI8tOwvZPoAdZ87KQt2iIKzHxNJuEJHe0cdH5KzSnsxKwhV7flu1qAirP2QcSYQ/s320/bread-315949_1280.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-18235860733863619672022-04-26T08:32:00.001+01:002022-04-26T09:40:33.721+01:00Telcos should focus on "connected data" not just "edge computing"<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Note: A version of this article first appeared as a
guest blog post written for Cloudera, linked to a webinar presentation
on May 4, 2022. See the sign-up link in the comments. This version has
minor changes to fit the tone & audience of this newsletter, and tie
in with previous themes. This version is also published on my LinkedIn newsletter with a comments thread (<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/telcos-should-focus-connected-data-just-edge-computing-dean-bubley/" target="_blank">here</a>).</i></b></span>
</p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks" dir="ltr">
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Telcos and other CSPs are rethinking their approach to enterprise
services in the era of advanced wireless connectivity - including their
5G, fibre and Software-Defined Wide Area Network (SD-WAN) portfolios.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Many consumer-centric operators are developing propositions for
“verticals”, often combining on-site or campus mobile networks with edge
computing, plus deeper solutions for specific industries or horizontal
applications. Part of this involves helping enterprises deal with their
data and overall cloud connectivity as well as local networks. <i>(The
original MNO vision of delivering enterprise networks as "5G network
slices" partitioned from their national infrastructure has taken a back
seat. There is more interest currently in the creation of dedicated
on-premise private 5G networks, via telcos' enterprise or integrator
units).</i></span>
</p>
<div class="reader-image-block reader-image-block--resize">
<div class="ivm-image-view-model">
<div class="ivm-view-attr__img-wrapper ivm-view-attr__img-wrapper--use-img-tag display-flex" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="No alt text provided for this image" class="ivm-view-attr__img--centered reader-image-block__img lazy-image ember-view" height="197" id="ember6371" src="https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQEj4dfS3FMAGw/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0/1650885659644?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=4OPgSZLTB7EPm7kFJhqfB4MSG1qNR1fDpI4eQDOEJKI" width="320" /></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
At the same time, telecom operators are also becoming more data- and
cloud-centric themselves. They are using disaggregated systems such as
Open RAN and cloud-native 5G cores, plus distributed compute and data,
for their own requirements. This is aimed at running their networks more
efficiently, and dealing with customers and operations more flexibly.
There are both public and private cloud approaches to this, with
hyperscalers like Amazon and disruptors such as Rakuten Symphony and
Totogi promising revolutions in future.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
As I've said for some time, “<i>The first industry that 5G will transform is the telecom industry itself.</i>”
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
This poses both opportunities and challenges. Telcos’ internal data
and cloud needs may not mirror their corporate customers’ strategies and
timing perfectly, especially given the diverse connectivity landscape.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
If operators truly want to blend their own transformation journey
with that of their customers, what is needed is a much broader view of
the <b>“networked cloud” </b>and<b> "distributed data"</b>, not just the “telco cloud” or <b>"telco edge"</b> that many like to discuss.
</span></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Networked data and cloud are not just “edge computing”</b></span>
</h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Telecom operators’ discussions around edge/cloud have gone in two separate directions in recent years:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>External edge computing:</b> The desire by MNOs
to deploy in-network edge nodes for end-user applications such as V2X,
IoT control, smart city functions, low-latency cloud gaming, or
enterprise private networks. Often called “MEC” (mobile edge computing),
this spans both in-house edge solutions and a variety of collaborations
with hyperscalers such as Azure, Google Cloud Platform, and Amazon Web
Services.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Internal: </b>The use of cloud platforms
for telcos’ own infrastructure and systems, especially for cloud-native
cores, flexible billing, and operational support systems (BSS/OSS), plus
new open and virtualised RAN technology for disaggregated 4G/5G
deployments. Some functions need to be deployed at the edge of the
network (such as 5G DUs and UPF cores), while others can be more
centralised.</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Of these two trends, the latter has seen more real-world
utilisation. It is linked to solving clear and immediate problems for
the CSPs themselves.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Many operators are working with public and private clouds for their
operational needs—running networks, managing subscriber data and
experience, and enabling more automation and control. While there are
raging debates about “openness” vs. outsourcing to hyperscalers, the
underlying story—cloudification of telcos’ networks and IT estates—is
consistent and accelerating. The timing constraints of radio signal
processing in Open RAN, and the desire to manage ultra-low latency 5G
“slices” in future 3GPP releases are examples that <i>need</i> edge compute. There may also be roles for edge billing/charging, and various security functions.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In contrast, telcos' <i>customer-facing</i> cloud, edge and data
offers have been much slower to emerge. The focus and hype about MEC has
meant operators’ emphasis has been on deploying “mini data centres”
deep in their networks—at cell towers or aggregation sites, or
fixed-operators’ existing central office locations. Discussion has
centred on “low latency” applications as the key differentiator for
CSP-enabled 5G edge. The focus has also been centred on <i>compute </i>rather than <i>data storage and analysis</i>.
Few telcos have given much consideration to "data at rest" rather than
"data in motion" - but both are important for developers.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
This has meant a disconnect between the original MEC concept and the
real needs of enterprises and developers. In reality, enterprises need
their data and compute to occur in multiple locations, and to be used
across multiple time frames—from real time closed-loop actions, to
analysis of long-term archived data. It may also span multiple clouds—as
well as on-premise and on-device capabilities beyond the network
itself.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
What is needed is a more holistic sense of “networked cloud” to tie
these diverse data storage and processing needs together, along with
documentation of connectivity and the physical source and path of data
transmission.
</span></p>
<div class="reader-image-block reader-image-block--full-width">
<div class="ivm-image-view-model">
<div class="ivm-view-attr__img-wrapper ivm-view-attr__img-wrapper--use-img-tag display-flex">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="No alt text provided for this image" class="ivm-view-attr__img--centered reader-image-block__img lazy-image ember-view" height="360" id="ember6372" src="https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQHlk8THUzPlGg/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1650886207698?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=SGDNdwzKhGo3jqlvFGcuptiuXZGdp6MYZI7i7k-sbNk" width="640" /></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Potentially there are some real sources of telco differentiation
here - as opposed to some of the more fanciful MEC visions, which are
more realistically MNOs just acting as channel partners for AWS Outposts
and Azure's equivalent Private MEC.
</span></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>An example of the “networked cloud”</b></span>
</h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Consider an example: video cameras for a smart city. There are
numerous applications, ranging from public transit and congestion
control, to security and law enforcement, identification of free parking
spots, road toll enforcement, or analysing footfall trends for
retailers and urban planners. In some places, cameras have been used to
monitor social-distancing or mask-wearing during the pandemic. The
applications vary widely in terms of immediacy, privacy issues, use of
historical data, or the need for correlation between multiple cameras.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
CSPs have numerous potential roles here, both for underlying connectivity and the higher-value services and applications.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
But there may be a large gap between when “compute” occurs, compared
to when data is collected and how it is stored. Short-term image data
storage and real-time analysis might be performed on the cameras
themselves, an in-network MEC node, or at a large data centre, perhaps
with external AI resources or combined with other data sets. Longer-term
data for trend analysis or historic access to event footage could be
archived either in a city-specific facility or in hyperscale sites.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><i>(I wrote a long article about Edge AI and analytics last year - </i><i><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/edge-ai-network-may-less-important-than-you-think-dean-bubley/?trackingId=YWWlZ2blTUCZ5b40nTx45g%3D%3D">see here</a></i><i>)</i></span>
</p>
<div class="reader-image-block reader-image-block--full-width">
<div class="ivm-image-view-model">
<div class="ivm-view-attr__img-wrapper ivm-view-attr__img-wrapper--use-img-tag display-flex">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="No alt text provided for this image" class="ivm-view-attr__img--centered reader-image-block__img lazy-image ember-view" height="360" id="ember6373" src="https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQFwMoDhr9BSAQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0/1650886445503?e=2147483647&v=beta&t=5VZwMys6fzF7FVxlmtzAQlul3_fQ3Rt5kHopXfvqiA0" width="640" /></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
For some applications, there will need to be strong proofs of
security and data custody, especially if there are evidentiary
requirements for law enforcement. That may extend to knowing (and
controlling) the specific paths across which data transits, how it is
stored, and the privacy and tamper-resistance compliance mechanisms
employed.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Similar situations—with both opportunities and challenges—exist in
verticals from vehicle-to-everything to healthcare to education to
financial services and manufacturing. <b>CSPs could become involved</b> in the “networked cloud” and data-management across these areas—but they <b>need to look beyond narrow views of edge-compute</b>. Telcos
are far from being the only contenders to run these types of services,
but some operators are taking it seriously - Singtel offers video
analytics for retail stores, for instance.
</span></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Location-specific data</b></span>
</h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
As a result, the next couple of years may see something of a shift
in telcos’ discussions and ambitions around enterprise data. There will
be huge <b>opportunities emerging around enterprise data’s chain-of-custody and audit trails</b>—not
only defining where processing takes place, but also where and how data
is stored, when it is transmitted, and the paths it takes across the
network(s) and cloud(s).
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
(<i>A theme for another newsletter article or LI post is on
enterprises' growing compliance headaches for data transit - especially
for international networks. There may be cybersecurity risks or
sanctions restrictions on transit through some countries or intermediary
networks, for instance. Some corporations are even getting direct
access into Internet exchanges and peering-points for greater control</i>).
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>In some cases, CSPs will take a lead</b> role here,
especially where they own and control the endpoints and applications
involved. Then they can better coordinate the compute and data-storage
resources. <b>In other cases, they will play supporting roles</b>
to others that have true end-to-end visibility. There will need to be
bi-directional APIs—essentially, telcos become both importers and
exporters of data and connectivity. This is especially true in the
mobile and 5G domain, where there will inevitably be connectivity
“borders” that data will need to transit. <i>(A recent post on the need for telcos to take on both lead and support roles </i><i><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_mobile-5g-augmentedreality-activity-6922443674572222464-dWPM?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web">is here</a></i><i>)</i></span>
</p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
There may be particular advantages for location-specific data
collected or managed by operators. For example, weather sensors
co-located with mobile towers could provide useful situational awareness
both for the telco’s own operational purposes as well as to enterprise
or public-sector customers, such as smart city authorities or
agricultural groups.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Telcos also have a variety of end-device fleets that they directly
own, or could offer as a managed service—for instance their own
vehicles, or city-wide security cameras. These can leverage the
operator’s own connectivity (typically 5G) as well as anchor some of the
data origination and consumption.
</span></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Conclusion</b></span>
</h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Telecom operators should shift their enterprise focus from
mobile edge computing (MEC) to a wider approach built around "networked
data".</b> Much of the enterprise edge will reside beyond the
network and telco control, in devices or on-premise gateways and
servers. Essentially no enterprise IT/IoT systems will be wholly run
"in" the 5G or fixed telco network, as virtual functions in a 3GPP or
ORAN stack.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
They instead should look for involvement in end-point devices, <b>where data is generated, where and when it is stored and processed</b>—and
also the paths through the network it takes. This would align their
propositions with connectivity (between objects or applications) as well
as property (the physical location of edge data centres or network
assets).
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
There are <b>multiple stages to get to this new proposition of “networked cloud”,</b>
and not all operators will be willing or able to fulfil the whole
vision. They will likely need to partner with the cloud players, as well
as think carefully about treatment of network and regulatory
boundaries.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Nevertheless, the broadening of scope <b>from “edge compute” to “networked cloud”</b>
seems inevitable. The role of telcos as pure-play "edge" specialists
makes little sense and may even be a distraction from the real
opportunities emerging at higher levels of abstraction<i>.
</i></span></p><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>
</i></span></span><p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span class="feed-shared-main-content--highlighted-comment t-14 t-black t-normal"><span><span dir="ltr">The original version of this article is at <a data-attribute-index="1" href="https://blog.cloudera.com/telco-5g-returns-will-come-from-enterprise-data-solutions/">https://blog.cloudera.com/telco-5g-returns-will-come-from-enterprise-data-solutions/</a><br /><br />I'll be speaking on an <b>upcoming webinar</b> with @cloudera about "Enterprise data in the <a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=5g">#5G</a> era" on May 4, 2022 - <a data-attribute-index="2" href="https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3531625172953644816">https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3531625172953644816</a></span></span></span></i></span></span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
#cloud #edgecomputing #5G #telecoms #latency #IoT #smartcities #mobile #telcos
</span></p>
</div>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-10126777838520070202022-04-07T09:22:00.003+01:002022-04-07T09:22:23.706+01:00Geopolitics, war & network diversity<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>This post was originally published on my LinkedIn Newsletter (<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/geopolitics-war-network-diversity-dean-bubley/">here</a>). Please sign up, and join the discussion thread there.</i></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i></i></span></p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks" dir="ltr">
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Background
</span></h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I'm increasingly finding myself drawn into discussions of
#geopolitics and how it relates to #telecoms. This goes well beyond
normal regulatory and policymaking involvement, as it means that rules -
and opportunities and risks - are driven by much larger "big picture"
strategic global trends, including the war in Ukraine.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
As well as predicting strategic shifts, there are also lessons to be
learned from events at a local, tactical level which have wider
ramifications. Often, there will be trade-offs against normal telecoms
preoccupations with revenue growth, theoretical "efficiency" of spectrum
or network use, standardisation, competition and consumer welfare.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
This is the first of what will probably be a regular set of articles
on this broader theme. Here, I'm focusing on the Ukraine war, in the
context some of the other geopolitical factors that I think are
important. I'm specifically thinking about what they may mean for the <em>types</em>
of network technology that are used, deployed and developed in future.
This has implications for #5G, #6G, #satellite networks, #WiFi, #FTTX
and much more, including the cloud/edge domains that support much of it. </span></p><p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQcvTp0lV-vMETv4peATflIuFcFRJvtqaVXM0CkwoSk-ezRG9sUVZXQK3U8nHCxY2I99CAfcW5fXqDVm0WavslT0VrP-ojwLiJ8NafF_xcWHSznNFa14kyiR5vkaHPWy6P0Olm2Pp0ReuRlBCsxhoObWg0b-RORpp40A7DTqX3Bt2adE4bdg/s1280/monoculture.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="1280" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQcvTp0lV-vMETv4peATflIuFcFRJvtqaVXM0CkwoSk-ezRG9sUVZXQK3U8nHCxY2I99CAfcW5fXqDVm0WavslT0VrP-ojwLiJ8NafF_xcWHSznNFa14kyiR5vkaHPWy6P0Olm2Pp0ReuRlBCsxhoObWg0b-RORpp40A7DTqX3Bt2adE4bdg/w400-h228/monoculture.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Ukraine and other geopolitical issues
</span></h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
This article especially drills into how the conflict in Ukraine has
manifested in terms of telecoms and connectivity, and attempts to
extrapolate to some early recommendations for policymakers more broadly.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I'm acutely consicous of the ongoing devastation and hideous war
crimes being perpetrated there - I hope this isn't too early to try to
analyse the narrow field of networking dispassionately, while conflict
still rages.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
For context, as well as Ukraine, other geopolitical issues impacting telecoms include:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">US / West vs. China tensions, from trade wars to broader
restrictions on the use of Huawei and other vendors' equipment, as well
as sanctions on the export of components.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Impact of the pandemic
on supply chains, plus the greater strategic and political importance
of resilient telecom networks and devices in the past two years.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The
politics of post-pandemic recovery, industrial strategy and stimulus
funds. Does this go to broadband deployment, themes such as Open RAN,
national networks, smart cities/infrastructure, satellite networks... or
somewhere else?</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Tensions within the US, and between US and
Europe over the role and dominance of "Big Tech". Personal data,
monopoly behaviour, censorship or regional sovereignty etc. This mostly
doesn't touch networks today, but maybe cloud-native will draw
attention. </span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Semiconductor supply-chain challenges and the geopolitical fragility of Taiwan's chip-fabrication sector.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">How telecoms (and cloud) fits within Net Zero strategies, either as a consumer of energy, or as an enabler of green solutions.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Cyber
threats from nation-state actors, criminal cartels and terrorist-linked
groups - especially aimed at critical infrastructure and
health/government/finance systems.</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In other words, there's a lot going on. It will impact 5G, 6G
development, vendor landscapes, cloud - and also other areas such as
spectrum policy and Internet governance.
</span></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Network diversity as a focus
</span></h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I've written and spoken before about the importance of "network
diversity" and the dangers of technology monocultures, including
over-reliance on particular standards (eg 5G) or particular business
models (eg national MNOs) as some sort of universal platform. It is now
clear that it is more important than ever.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The analogy I made with agriculture, or ecological biodiversity, is proving to be robust.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
(Previous work includes <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/local-spectrum-just-4g-5g-monoculture-dean-bubley/">this article</a> from 2020 about private enterprise networks, or my <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/deanb/ofcom-future-wireless-world-spectrum-dean-bubley">2017 presentation</a>
keynote on future disruptions, at Ofcom's spectrum conference. (The
blue/yellow image of wheat fields, repeated here in this post, was
chosen long before it became so resonant as the Ukrainian flag). I've
also covered the shift towards Open RAN and telecoms supplier
diversification – including a long report I submitted to the UK
Government's Diversification Task Force last year - see <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/deanbubley_disruptive-analysis-5g-supply-diversification-activity-6763038817348808704-jaAY/">this post</a> and download the report).
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
A key takeout from my Open RAN report was that <em>demand</em> diversity is as important as creating more <em>supply</em>
choices in a given product domain. Having many classes of network
operator and owner – for instance national MNOs, enterprise private
4G/5G, towercos, industrial MNOs and neutral hosts – tends to pull
through multiple options for supply in terms of both vendor diversity <em>and </em>technology diversity. They have different requirements, different investment criteria and different operational models.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In Ukraine, the "demands" for connectivity are arising from an even
more broad set of sources, including improvised communications for
refugees, drones and military personnel.
</span></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2"><span style="font-family: arial;">
The war in Ukraine & telecoms
</span></h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
There have been numerous articles published which highlight the
surprising resilience and importance of Ukrainian telecoms during the
war so far. Bringing together and synthesising multiple sources, this
has highlighted a number of important issues around network
connectivity:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The original “survivability” concept of IP networks seems to
have been demonstrated convincingly. Whether used for ISPs’ Internet
access, or internal backhaul and transport for public fixed and mobile
networks, the ability for diverse and resilient routing paths seems to
have mostly been successful. </span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Public national mobile networks -
mostly 4G in Ukraine's case - have proven essential in many ways,
whether that has been for reporting information about enemy combatants'
locations and activities, obtaining advice from government authorities,
or dealing with the evacuation as refugees. (I'm not sure if subway
stations used as shelters have underground cellular coverage, or if
there is WiFi). Authorities also seem to have had success in getting
citizens to self-censor, to avoid disclosing sensitive details to their
enemies.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Reportedly the Russian forces haven't generally
targeted telecoms infrastructure on a widescale basis. This was partly
because they have been using commerical mobile networks themselves.
However, because roaming was disabled, Russian military use of their
encrypted handsets and SIMs on public 3G/4G networks seems to have
failed. Two articles <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/07/ukraine-phones-internet-still-work-00014487">here</a> and <a href="https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/ukraine-russian-militarys-own-encrypted-phones-impacted-after-destroying-3g4g-towers-allowing-comms-to-be-intercepted/">here</a>
give good insight, and also suggests there may be network surveillance
backdoors which Russia may have exploited. There have also been reports
of stingrays ("fake" base stations used for interception of calls /
identity) being deployed. It also appears that some towns and cities -
notably the destroyed city of Mariupol - have been mostly knocked
offline, partly because the electrical grid was attacked first.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Ukraine’s
competitive telecoms market has probably helped its resilience. There
is a highly fragmented fixed ISP landscape, with very inexpensive
connections. There are over a dozen public peering-points across the
country. There are three main MNOs, with many users having SIMs from 2+
operators. (This is a good overview article - <a href="https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/key-facts-about-ukraines-telecom-industry">https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/key-facts-about-ukraines-telecom-industry</a>). It seems they have enabled some form of national roaming to allow subscribers to attach to each others' networks.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">WiFi hotspots (likely with mobile backhaul) have been used by NGOs evacuating refugees by buses.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Although
it is still only being used at a small scale, the LEO satellite
terminals from SpaceX’s StarLink seem to be an important contributor to
connectivity – not least as a backup option. Realistically, satellite
isn’t appropriate for millions of individual homes – and especially not
personal vehicles and smartphones – but is an important part of the
overall network-diversity landscape. Various commentators have suggested
it is useful as a backup for critical infrastructure connectivity, as
well as for mobile units such as special forces.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Another satellite broadband provider, Viasat, apparently suffered a cyberattack at the start of the war (link <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/viasat-internet-hack-ukraine-russia/">here</a>),
which knocked various modem users offline (or even "bricked" the
devies), reportedly including Ukrainian government organisations.
Investigations haven't officially named Russia, but a coincidence seems
improbable. This attack also impacted users outside Ukraine.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Various
peer-to-peer apps using Bluetooth or WiFi allow direct connections
between phones, even if wide area connections are down (see <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/how-to-send-messages-in-ukraine-if-the-internet-shuts-down/a-61041676">link</a>)</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There
have been some concerning reports about the impact of GPS jammers on
the operation of cellular networks, which may use it as a source of
“timing synchronisation” to operate properly, especially for TDD radio
bands. While this has long been a risk for individual cell-sites from
low-power transmitters, the use of deliberate electronic warfare tools
could potentially point to broader vulnerabilities in future.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There
has been wide use of commercial drones like the DJI Mavic-3 for
surveillance (video and thermal imaging), or modified to deliver
improvised weaponry. These use WiFi to connect to controllers on the
ground, as well as a proprietary video transmission protocols (called
O3+) which apparently has range of up to 15km using unlicensed spectrum.
Some of the "Aerorozvidka" units reportedly then use StarLink terminals
to connect back to command sites to coordinate artillery attacks (<a href="https://www.iflscience.com/technology/starlink-satellites-are-helping-ukraines-drone-unit-halt-russian-advances/">link</a>).</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In short, it seems that Ukraine has been well served by having lots
of connectivity options - probably including some additional military
systems that aren't widely discussed. It has benefited from multiple
fixed, cellular and satellite networks, with potential for interconnect,
plus inventive "quick fixes" after failures and collaboration between
providers. It is exploiting licensed and unlicensed spectrum, with
cellular, Wi-Fi and other technologies.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In other words, network diversity is working properly. There appears
to be no single point of failure, despite deliberate attacks by
invading forces and hackers. Connectivity is far from perfect, but it
has held up remarkably well. Perhaps the full range of electronic
warfare options hasn't been used - but given the geographical size of
Ukraine and the inability of Russia forces to maintain supply-lines to
distant units, that is also unsurprising.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Another set of issues that I haven't really examined are around
connectivity within sanctions-hit Russia. Maybe it will have to develop
more local network equipment manufacturers - if they can get the
necessary silicon and other components. It probably will not wish to
over-rely on Huawei & ZTE any more than some Western countries have
been happy with Nokia and Ericsson as primary options. More problematic
may be fixed-Internet routers, servers, WiFi APs and other
Western-dominated products. I can't say I'm sympathetic, and I certainly
don't want to offer suggestions. Let's see what happens.
</span></p>
<h3 class="reader-text-block__heading2"><span style="font-family: arial;">
Recommendations for policymakers, industry bodies and regulators
</span></h3>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
So what are the implications of all this? Hopefully, few other
countries face a similar invasion by a large and hostile army. But
preparedness is wise, especially for countries with unfriendly
neighbours and territorial disputes. And even for everywhere else, the
risks of cyberattacks, terrorism, natural disasters - or even just
software bugs or human error - are still significant.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
I should stress that I'm not a cybersecurity or critical
infrastructure specialist. But I can read across from other trends I'm
seeing in telecoms, and in particular I'm doing a lot of work on "path
dependency" where small, innocent-seeming actions end up having
long-term strategic impacts and can lock-in technology trajectories.
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
My initial set of considerations and recommendations:
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
</p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;">As a general principle, divergence in technology should be
considered at least as positively than convergence. It maintains
optionality, fosters innovation and reduces single-point-of-failure
risks. </span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">National networks and telcos (fixed and mobile) are
essential - but cannot do everything. They also need to cooperate during
emergencies - a spirit of collaboration which seems to have worked well
during the pandemic in many countries.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Normal ideas about
cyber-resilience and security may not extend to the impact of full-scale
military electronic warfare units, as well as more "typical" online
hacking and malware attacks.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Having separate "air-gapped"
networks available makes sense not just for critical communications
(military, utilities etc) but for more general use. It isn't inefficient
- it's insurance. There may be implications here for network-sharing in
some instances.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Thought needs to be given to emergency
fallbacks and improvised work-arounds, for instance in the event of mass
power outages or sabotage. This is particularly important for
software/cloud-based networks, which may be less "fixable" in the field.
Can a 5G network be "bodged"? (that's "MacGyvred" to my US friends)? <em>As a sidenote - how have electric vehicles fared in Ukraine?</em></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Unlicensed
spectrum and "permissionless communications" is hugely important during
emergency situations. Yes, it doesn't have control or lawful intercept.
But that's entirely acceptable in extreme circumstances.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Linkages
between technologies, access networks and control/identity planes
should generally be via gateways that can be closed, controlled or
removed if necessary. If one is attacked, the rest should be firewalled
off from it. For the same reason "seamless" should be a red-flag word
for cross-tech / cross-network roaming. Seams are important. They offer
control and the ability to partition if necessary. "Frictionless" is OK,
as long as friction can be re-imposed if needed.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Governments should be <em>extremely</em>
cautious of telcos extending 3GPP control mechanisms – especially the
core network and slicing – to fixed broadband infrastructure. Fixed
broadband is absolutely critical, and complex software dependencies may
trade off fine-grained control vs. resilience - and offer additional
threat surfaces.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Democratising and improving satellite
communications looks like an ever more wise move, for all sorts of
reasons. It's not a panacea, but it's certainly "air-gapped" as above.
3GPP-based "non-terrestrial" networks, eg based on drones or balloons,
also has potential - but will ideally be able to work independently of
terrestrial networks if needed.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">I haven't heard much about LPWAN and LoRa-type networks, but I can imagine that being useful in emergency situations too.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Sanctions,
trade wars and supply-chain issues are highly unpredictable in terms of
intended and unintended consequences. Technology diversity helps
mitigate this, alongside supplier diversity in any one network domain.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Spectrum
policy should enable enough scale economies to ensure good supply of
products (and viability of providers), but not *so* much scale that any
one option drives out alternatives.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The role and impact of
international bodies like ITU, GSMA and 3GPP needs careful scrutiny. We
are likely to see them become even more political in future. If
necessary, there may have to be separate "non-authoritarian" and
"authoritarian" versions of some standards (and spectrum policies).
De-coupling and de-layering technologies' interdependency - especially
radio and core networks - could isolate "disagreements" in certain
layers, without undermining the whole international collaboration.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">There
should be a rudimentary basic minimum level of connectivity that uses
"old" products and standards. Maybe we need to keep a small slice of
900MHz spectrum alive for generator-powered GSM cells and a box of cheap
phones in bunkers - essentially a future variant of Ham Radio.</span></li></ul>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
So to wrap up, I'm ever more convinced that Network Diversity is
essential. Not only does it foster innovation, and limit oligopoly risk,
but it also enables more options in tragic circumstances. We should
also consider the potential risks of too much sophistication and pursuit
of effiency and performance at all costs. What happens when things
break (or get deliberately broken)?
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph"><span style="font-family: arial;">
In the meantime, I'm hoping for a quick resolution to this awful war. Slava Ukraini!
</span></p>
<p class="reader-text-block__paragraph">
<span style="font-family: arial;"><em>Sidenote: I am currently researching the areas of “technology
lock-in” and “path dependence”. In particular, I have been investigating
the various mechanisms by which lock-in occurs and strategies for
spotting its incipience, or breaking out of it. Please get in touch with
me, if this is an area of interest for you.</em></span>
</p>
</div><p><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-21543221718245387132022-01-06T14:37:00.003+00:002022-01-06T14:37:46.692+00:00Private 4G/5G: Three Markets, Not One<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Private 5G segmentation: Introduction & Overview</b></span></p><div class="reader-article-content reader-article-content--rounded-images reader-article-content--legacy-html" dir="ltr"><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Private 4G and 5G networks are rapidly becoming mainstream. This isn’t news.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But
from recent conversations, client engagements and events, it’s becoming
increasingly clear that many don’t quite grasp how private cellular
use-cases are segmented – and why it’s going to get even more complex in
the next 2-3 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In reality, this isn’t really “a market” in a singular sense. It’s currently at least <strong><em>three separate and distinct markets</em></strong>, with only minimal overlap at present. The main common thread is the deployment of cellular (3GPP 4G/5G) networks by non-MNOs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgM3EEbKCjOckqP9fP_SjnudJEy-CfI-G-YMPkD4g3NmBKaHJbYJsLHdMwj4I-TtHcza7auDLp3aV3KxLVMdsDpGbuEMayOGYDOcVxI2Lw4DXCKw570T73jTJwP7Tur0QdCNGmOBzkmWRt10lFH1fEraQCELXAHoy-Ykc7ImNX_jjZRRs61AQ=s1920" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="975" data-original-width="1920" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgM3EEbKCjOckqP9fP_SjnudJEy-CfI-G-YMPkD4g3NmBKaHJbYJsLHdMwj4I-TtHcza7auDLp3aV3KxLVMdsDpGbuEMayOGYDOcVxI2Lw4DXCKw570T73jTJwP7Tur0QdCNGmOBzkmWRt10lFH1fEraQCELXAHoy-Ykc7ImNX_jjZRRs61AQ=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">A
common fallacy involves talking about “vertical industries” as the main
way to divide up the sector. But that doesn’t really work, as any given
vertical has dozens of sub-categories and hundreds of potential
applications and deployment scenarios. For instance, the “energy
vertical” covers everything from a gas station, to an offshore windfarm,
a 1000km pipeline or an oil-futures trading floor in a financial
district.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Verticals are useful ways to divide up sales and
marketing efforts, and make sense for cohesive reports, papers or
webinars, but also blend together elements of three <em>very</em> different markets for private 4G/5G:</span></p><ul><li><span style="font-family: arial;"> <strong>Critical communications networks</strong></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"> <strong>Indoor mobile phone networks</strong></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"> <strong>Cloud and IT/IoT networks</strong></span></li></ul><div class="slate-resizable-image-embed slate-image-embed__resize-full-width"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="No alt text provided for this image" data-li-src="https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D12AQF-udEoJ8MIwA/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0/1641462605200?e=1646870400&v=beta&t=qdgvYsRPdiKCzsroYC2n0b4uYseq1Fms1wBMNIneS2c" data-media-urn="" height="358" src="https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D12AQF-udEoJ8MIwA/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0/1641462605200?e=1646870400&v=beta&t=qdgvYsRPdiKCzsroYC2n0b4uYseq1Fms1wBMNIneS2c" width="636" /></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It is worth discussing each of these in turn.</span></p><h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Critical communications networks</span></h3><p><span style="font-family: arial;">These
have made up the bulk of major private network deployments over the
last 5-10 years. They are typically deployed for utilities, oil &
gas, mining, public safety, airports and military purposes. Often, they
are used in rugged environments, for human communications (typically
push-to-talk), as well as in-vehicle gateways and specific automation
systems such as remote sensors and monitoring systems. The specialised
GSM-R system for railways fits in this category as well.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Usually,
they are replacing alternatives such as private mobile radio (PMR),
TETRA and microwave fixed-links. They have typically been packaged and
deployed by specialist integrators for sectors like oil-rigs or
field-deployment by military units. There is limited “replicability”.
They vary widely in size, from a single portable network for public
safety, up to a national network for a utility company.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There is
little need for interconnection with public mobile networks; indeed it
may be specifically avoided in order to maintain isolation for optimal
security and “air-gapping” for critical applications.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Most are 4G,
reflecting mission-criticality and its frequent need for proven, mature
technology and wide product availability. 5G is however used in certain
niches and is being tested widely, although the most useful features
will only arrive when Release 16/17 versions are commercialised in the
next few years.</span></p><h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Indoor mobile phone networks</span></h3><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This includes
some of both the oldest and newest deployments. Early local private
2G/3G networks essentially used GSM phones and thin slices of
light-licensed/unlicensed spectrum to replace DECT cordless phones in a
few markets – notably the UK, Netherlands and Japan.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">They could
also work with multi-SIM phones to blend public and private modes. I
first saw an enterprise-grade GSM picocell in 2001, and an on-premise
core network box in 2005. There are still several thousand such networks
around, including ones updated to 4G and some that run on ships or
onboard private jets.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">More recently, there has been growing
interest in using private 4G/5G to create neutral host networks for
in-building, or on-campus coverage. There are multiple models for
neutral host (I’ve counted around 10-15 variations), with some needing a
full local network with its own spectrum and core, and others just
relying on the tenant MNOs’ active equipment. In the US, CBRS-based
options may turn out to be among the more sophisticated.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Whether
used to support public MNOs more effectively than alternative indoor
systems such as DAS (distributed antenna systems), or perhaps for
linking to a UC / UCaaS system for enterprise voice, the main use-cases
are for phones. They are almost always deployed for a single building or
campus.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This segment is the most likely to require
interconnection with the public mobile infrastructure, as well as
supporting normal “phone calls” rather than push-to-talk voice.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>Cloud and IT/IoT network </strong></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This
category of private cellular is probably receiving the greatest
attention from many newcomers to the sector, as well as external
observers such as analysts and journalists.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It ties in with many
of the newest trends around cloud and edge-computing, AI and machine
vision in factories, robots and AGVs in warehouses, security cameras and
more general IoT / smart building use-cases. It aligns with many of the
"transformation" projects in IT, plus some parts of the OT (operational
technology) space such as smart manufacturing.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">As such, it tends
to be viewed as a complement – or alternative – to other IT-type network
technologies like Wi-Fi and fibre-based ethernet. And given that many
of the use-cases have a heavy cloud (or at least multi-site WAN)
orientation, there is more acceptance of virtualisation of cores and
perhaps in future the RAN.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This is currently the area with the
greatest amounts of experimentation and innovation – although actual
large-scale operational deployments are still relatively few. There is
more focus on 5G than 4G, although that might change as executives learn
more about the practicalities and economics. Vendors often orient on
the soundbite that "private 5G should be as easy as Wi-Fi".</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There
is a major focus on automation, replicability and ease-of-use. This was
exemplified by the recent AWS Private 5G announcement, which seems
squarely aimed at this segment.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">However, there is perhaps a divide
opening between the IT-type scenarios (where it can be seen as a sort
of enterprise Wi-Fi-on-steroids vision) and OT deployments in which it
gets embedded into larger industrial automation or other systems, such
as factory robots or dockside cranes. In the latter scenarios we can see
companies like Siemens integrating cellular into their wider systems,
just as they have historically used Wi-Fi/WLAN and fibre.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Although
the main focus is on building / campus networks for this model, it may
also extend to larger domains such as smart cities, as well as
multi-location users such as retail chains.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There is <em>some</em>
overlap with the critical communications segment, but that is fairly
rare at the moment, especially given the lesser role (and trust) of
public cloud in many of those areas.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In addition, there is a fair
amount of talk about interconnection with the public mobile network
(especially where telcos are acting as vendors), but in reality, that's a
secondary consideration that doesn't go much beyond a PowerPoint slide
for now. There are certain exceptions which are interesting, but they're
far from typical.</span></p><h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Conclusions and the Future of Private Networks Segmentation</span></h3><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At
present, the "private 5G market" is actually at least three separate
markets. And it's mostly about private 4G rather than 5G. Critical
communications networks, indoor mobile phone networks and cloud/IT/IoT
networks are largely distinct in terms of motivations, channels,
economics, devices and applications. There is much less overlap than
many observers expect. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><em>(There are also smaller adjacent sectors such as community networks, 4G/5G-based FWA and other specialities).</em></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But
over the next 1-2 years, we can expect the three bubbles on the Venn
diagram to overlap more – although asymmetrically. Critical and
cloud/IoT networks will start to become hybridised. Critical 4G/5G
networks in mines or utility sites will start to support extra IT-like
applications, for instance (although that probably won't need formal
network slicing).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Some enterprise private cellular networks will
examine adding neutral-host and inbound roaming or interconnect from
public MNOs' subscribers – although there are assorted regulatory and
security/operational hurdles to address.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There won't be much
overlap between critical networks and neutral/guest cellular, though.
Nobody's smartphone will be roaming from their normal consumer 5G
network onto the utility company's private infrastructure, I think. A
few employees' devices might have special arrangements though.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But
we will also see the emergence of a number of additional bubbles on the
chart, some of which are more like "quasi-private" models, such as
outdoor neutral host networks, selling wholesale capacity to MNOs. There
will be various forms of Wi-Fi integration (but probably less than many
expect / want). And we will undoubtedly see maturity of both
cloud-delivered private cellular like AWS's, and (belatedly) some sort
of MNO-based network slice integration.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And if you want an
"outlier" to ponder, consider the potential for grassroots private
"consumer-grade" 5G. There's a lot of hype about things like Helium's
decentralised and blockchain-based model, but I'm deeply sceptical of
this (that's for another post, though). More likely is the emergence of a
true Wi-Fi hotspot approach, where we start to see lightweight "free
5G" options, using unlicensed (or maybe CBRS GAA) spectrum, with a cheap
core and small cell. Scan the QR code next to the barista to download
your eSIM, and you're good to go….</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfJ3tMBdHxT_mcLNMrxVR_2mvfIypZV1vGWr2lbJCKu2w_p63cnFWEbjNWO1dZlv_joNIacQyg5aOiKNA_Y1DdkWQbb74bw6GIaX-2Z52BXhhj76GTtFedVxkjCgo_AaP0HOmkGEtx3xy9v2q5pUXRGdy5qwGEEi_ts2x9Kz82R9Ae-ITTkQ=s1280" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjfJ3tMBdHxT_mcLNMrxVR_2mvfIypZV1vGWr2lbJCKu2w_p63cnFWEbjNWO1dZlv_joNIacQyg5aOiKNA_Y1DdkWQbb74bw6GIaX-2Z52BXhhj76GTtFedVxkjCgo_AaP0HOmkGEtx3xy9v2q5pUXRGdy5qwGEEi_ts2x9Kz82R9Ae-ITTkQ=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The bottom line is that the
private 4G/5G market is complex and nuanced. Market statistics
frequently combine everything from a nationwide utility's or railway's
critical infrastructure, to a few small-cells connecting up digital
signs in a mall car-park. It's easy to assume it's all about
millisecond-latency robots zipping about factories, rather than a
security guard with a handheld radio, or indoor network coverage for a
hotel.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Operators, vendors, enterprises and governments need to
delve a bit more deeply than just talking about "verticals" for private
cellular, or else they risk making errors with their product portfolios
or regulatory direction.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><em>Dean Bubley (@disruptivedean) is a
wireless technology analyst & futurist, who advises a broad range of
companies and institutions active in the 5G, Wi-Fi and cloud
marketplaces. He has covered private cellular networks for more than 20
years. He is a regular speaker and moderator at live and virtual events.</em> <strong><em>Please get in touch on LinkedIn or via information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com for advisory or speaking requests. </em></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">#Private5G #Private4G #CriticalCommunications #5G #IoT #IIoT #Cloud #WiFi #verticals</span></p>
</div>Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.com0