tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post2018554812598706337..comments2024-03-20T22:57:03.923+00:00Comments on Dean Bubley's Disruptive Wireless: Multiple device ownership - crunching some numbersDean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-69818879931529976392007-12-14T10:13:00.000+00:002007-12-14T10:13:00.000+00:00Anonymous - my customers don't pay me for quick ba...Anonymous - my customers don't pay me for quick back-of-the-envelope calculations I publish for free on my blog. <BR/><BR/>However, they do pay me for facilitating discussion, and raising awareness of issues that are rarely discussed in public.<BR/><BR/>You'll also be aware that Disruptive Analysis' primary business is not in compiling general box-counting statistics.<BR/><BR/>I'm quite prepared to believe that the 70m figure is over-stated: I've used public sources such as Ofcom for that, given that this wasn't a detailed research study.<BR/><BR/>Clearly internal analysts at operators will have access to more accurate usage data on a per-SIM basis. Although they also don't know their customers' real behaviour quite as well as they'd like to think they do.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps you'd like to enlighten the world as to what you think the real number is? And while you're at it, perhaps you could explain why you seem so sanguine about distorting it for the benefit of investors and your regulator?<BR/><BR/>Any thoughts on the number of foreign SIMs owned and occasionally used by UK residents? Plenty of business travellers have a wallet-full of them.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-30976706535043151272007-12-14T09:46:00.000+00:002007-12-14T09:46:00.000+00:00deaninteresting: rather than admit an error in you...dean<BR/><BR/>interesting: rather than admit an error in your original post you choose to refer to an older post which is only tangentially relevant (and itself filled with errors)<BR/><BR/>the point is: 70m is wrong. plain wrong. and you would know this if you actually had any understanding of what you were talking about. the fact that operator "fudge" numbers (ie release inflated bases for investor purposes using antiquated metrics) is irrelevant here. because even if they do, you, as someone who claims to be an analyst should be able to look beyond the published data. isn't that what your customers pay you for? <BR/><BR/><I>"For what it's worth, some operators define "active" as generating a billable event in the past 3 months - but that can also include inbound calls & SMSs as well as outbound.</I><BR/><BR/>thats how operators define "active" for reporting purposes.<BR/><BR/>Of course you know the difference between a 30day base, a 90day base and a 180 day base? and you know the relevance?<BR/><BR/>thought not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-46215851266577471412007-12-13T18:01:00.000+00:002007-12-13T18:01:00.000+00:00Digital Evangelist - thanks. Constructive comments...Digital Evangelist - thanks. Constructive comments. This wasn't intended as a definitive analysis, more about highlighting some of the vagaries involved.<BR/><BR/>Although certain people at the operators have obviously gone through this thoroughly (at least I'd hope so), I'm sure you're aware that many external observers often fail to scrutinise data at all & just assume "subscriber = user". <BR/><BR/>The GSMA is a typical culprit:<BR/>http://www.gsmworld.com/news/press_2007/press07_48.shtml includes the phrase "serves more than 2.5 billion people"<BR/><BR/>Anonymous - You're obviously having a bad day, based on your couple of comments on recent posts. Hope it works out for you soon. <BR/><BR/>I've written posts before on how operators play with their reported numbers, and also seem happy to have observers misinterpret them:<BR/><BR/>http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2006/07/fudging-numbers-part-1.html<BR/><BR/>For what it's worth, some operators define "active" as generating a billable event in the past 3 months - but that can also include inbound calls & SMSs as well as outbound.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-25223011999791604822007-12-13T17:40:00.000+00:002007-12-13T17:40:00.000+00:00in the uk the definition of active user is vague t...in the uk the definition of active user is vague to say the least. its very very easy for an operator to inflate the number of so-called "active" prepay sims, ege mail out 500000 "free" sims expect 10% to activate and hey presto 50000 extra users at the drop of a hat just in time for quarterly results! and never mind "sleeping" prepay customers who use the handset once every 6 months... or the Machine-to-machine SIMs...or the "active" but unused business SIMs....<BR/><BR/>so your initial premise that the UK has 70m SIMs is basically wrong. and you know what? vodafone know that. carphone know that (and if you call that link "analysis" you're in trouble). EVERY operator knows that.<BR/><BR/>but just occasionally we get schmuck analysts to give us their opinion. hey don't get angry, it puts food on your table.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-34657098451409425892007-12-06T20:15:00.000+00:002007-12-06T20:15:00.000+00:00Dean,Think that you are close but need to make a f...Dean,<BR/><BR/>Think that you are close but need to make a few adjustments.<BR/><BR/>First I would suggest that you discount the active sim number for the UK and then run the numbers again.<BR/><BR/>Then I think that you need to look at the M2M numbers and increase those. <BR/><BR/>Run the numbers again and you should get a number closer to the 70% rate that is use internally by two of the five UK networks.Ian Wood. Principal Wireless Foundry LLPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06822944351512034141noreply@blogger.com