tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post2309223347646620589..comments2024-03-20T22:57:03.923+00:00Comments on Dean Bubley's Disruptive Wireless: Mobile IMS and LTE networks: Dead ParrotDean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-83397438075053970382011-02-24T17:16:21.304+00:002011-02-24T17:16:21.304+00:00Triggered by Dean's 1000th blog I read this bl...Triggered by Dean's 1000th blog I read this blog again and all the comments.<br /><br />It is funny (or disappointing) that 18 months later the post and the comments could be written today. We are not much further we 'commercial' deployments of IMS 9I mean actual money making applications on IMS). VoLTE exists largely on paper, trials have still to start. RCS is replaced by RCS-e; finally we get rid of presence. A comment suggested RCS is about the user interface and experience - well RCS client developers have their work cut out. i suggest spend big bugs and get some expectional UI designers in-house.<br /><br />At MWC 2011 should be a wake up call: we had App Planet (hall 6) and Andriod infested Hall 8 (Android booth was a showcase for Apps). We have currently 100.000s of applications in ll sorts of App Stores, markets and malls; downloadbale to your device. There are millions of web services reachable from your 3G enabled device. So, who cares about the 10s of applications you can built with IMS.<br /><br />Yes, some voice (or broader communication) services will be delivered to you. For the same reason as someone mentioned ' millions of dollars spent' many operators will attempt VoLTE (" I can't be wrong having spend some much. And other do it too, so it must be right").<br />Time has come to start using the parts and pieces of IMS that make sense and throw out the rest.Colinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02738378252256424525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-17873349358624351202010-05-17T15:56:08.919+01:002010-05-17T15:56:08.919+01:00very interesting blog posts.. i would like to beli...very interesting blog posts.. i would like to believe IMS/EPC is the future, otherwise why would big telco companies bother spending millions towards the successful deployment of IMS. <br /><br />Further more why is that intensive research is still currently going on toward providing hosted services (SaaS) with extended NaaS features that telocom companies can provide (e.g. presence and BOBO to pay 3rd party ASP).<br /><br />Dean Bubley:There are certain control aspects for which specific IMS elements might make sense (eg policy)<br /><br />This is what OMA PEEM is based on, and it's currently being integrated with IMS/EPC to provide new-value added service on demand for cloud based services.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-33233761289835052642009-09-05T12:18:09.498+01:002009-09-05T12:18:09.498+01:00The problem with IMS is that it is deemed as somet...The problem with IMS is that it is deemed as something new and the stupid acronym and name make no sense as to what it really is.<br /><br />IMS is the continuation of the evolution to all-IP networks. But it is a very complex 3GPP way of doing things and the reason why it hasn't really been taken very far. In reality as Rel4+ circuit core networks evolve to IP and full VoIP, they would need to interconnect and facilitate billing of IP based voice (and/or video) services.<br /><br />If IMS was thought of as an evolution, rather than a vendor flog, we probably would have had a lot more acceptance - albeit at a lot less fanfare about it all. But instead of following IETF ways, 3GPP and the vendors decided to overthink and complicate things so much that it required a new name and needed to be flogged at exuberant prices.<br /><br />In my mind this is what functionally IMS needs to do to become a reality:<br />- become the actual "circuit core", i.e. route all signalling through CSCFs<br />- provide IP based voice interconnect between PLMNs as well as to corporate IP based PBX<br />- provide QoS control through a PCRF/GGSN comms - if the bearer is data based<br /><br />That's all IMS should be doing.<br /><br />Applications, clients, other on-top stuff that's related to IMS is not really IMS - that's the dream of the next "killer app", i.e. SMS. But if you tell operators IMS is just a replacement of your core, nobody would buy it as they already have a core and do not appreciate what all-IP really means. So that's why vendors piggy-backed all the promises and some totally stupid applications to try to sell IMS, but nobody can understand why you need to reinvent the wheel when Skype exists already. Things got even worse when FMC got mentioned.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-87927382334395665242009-08-23T10:18:14.667+01:002009-08-23T10:18:14.667+01:00It's true, there're plenty of FMC vendors,...It's true, there're plenty of FMC vendors, try to ask some company connected to those services and you'll see the customer satisfaction: one proof is that operators are selling the new platforms on price competition not on higher value...<br />Probably I'm out of reality but I'm not seeing all those sophisticated services... At the beginning all vendors started with the value at the core, after that you had value positioned at enablers (see OMA), and without any service coming at the horizon the vendors moved to web 2.0 integration, that means you don't need IMS but you need internet... IMS has been followed the same path of ATM: too complex, too slow, too expensive but, I must admit it, very cool and elegant (the first releases were managed by French people). Something else will appear, I don't know what, unfortunately for my pocket ;-)alehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01702581814630178534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-35175299845848738972009-08-22T14:01:57.617+01:002009-08-22T14:01:57.617+01:00Ale: "Google Voice or Ribbit are offering muc...Ale: "Google Voice or Ribbit are offering much more than deployed IMS platforms, which are playing mostly as hypertrophic sip server..."<br /><br />There are plenty of FMC implementations based on IMS that offer far more sophisticated services than GV or Ribbit. That is not to say that GV or Ribbit are not interesting and highly competitive services themselves - they certainly are. IMS is still in early implementation and telcos are ponderously slow at getting products out the door and poor at marketing complex services but they are beginning to appear.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-91384648180047410122009-08-22T10:41:45.911+01:002009-08-22T10:41:45.911+01:00DB: "1) A strategy for protecting voice+SMS p...DB: "1) A strategy for protecting voice+SMS profitability (eg keep and extend CS with VoLGA or CS Fallback or NSN Fast-track) plus spending more on lobbying regulators"<br /><br />I don't see this as mutually exclusive to deploying IMS - obviously it makes a lot of sense to sweat whatever assets you have to the fullest extent possible. Howevere there will come a point when a full technology refresh will happen. For a fixed and mobile operator who will very likely already have a large fixed IMS deployment in place already IMS is the logical choice. Mobile only? Well, it's a much more difficult decision but perhaps the rest of the industry will carry them along.<br /><br />DB: "2) Look for the best platform (ecosystem, actually) for "cool new stuff". I'd suggest something that's easily accessible to 3rd-party developers & which is optimised for encouraging innovation around devices and user-experience, rather than QoS."<br /><br />You seem to assume that IMS will preclude or stifle such innovation. My belief is the opposite. IMS provides a solid basis for such development and with the addition of technologies like JSLEE/JSR289/Parlay-X it is straightforward to expose IMS capabilities in a developer friendly way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-22791991892942652532009-08-22T10:31:31.807+01:002009-08-22T10:31:31.807+01:00DB: "There are two major risks here:
1) IMS a...DB: "There are two major risks here:<br />1) IMS actually makes voice & SMS *more* prone to erosion, for example if RCS (aka SMS2.0) provides a worse user experience than alternative messaging services, and everyone starts using Facebook or Twitter or Skype messaging instead."<br /><br />If RCS can only offer a worse user experience it will not be launched by any operator, you can be sure of that. <br /><br />So, how do I contact my Twitter friends through my Facebook account or do I need to maintain both? Will Skype provide a unified interface to Google and MSN or vice versa? I know about fring but it's interface could at best be charitably described as "OK." Perhaps we will see one grand unified client that overcomes all the UI and battery life problems you assume RCS can never solve.<br /><br />DB: "2) IMS turns out to be a sub-optimal platform for these other VAS, to the extent that nobody spends much money on them. For example, does it have built-in business model inflexibility - perhaps confining users to a "subscription" model which seems inappropriate for their needs."<br /><br />There is always the risk that nobody uses your latest whizz-bang service but one of the points of IMS is that it enables much more rapid service development than heretofore (no, not at internet speed but at least we can work in weeks rather than months). Your point about subscription model difficulties is irrelevant, it is the BSS that will constrain these not IMS which will allow any form of billing you can imagine/implement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-9620615715127661852009-08-21T10:01:01.348+01:002009-08-21T10:01:01.348+01:00Definitely true, great post and comments!
Google ...Definitely true, great post and comments! <br />Google Voice or Ribbit are offering much more than deployed IMS platforms, which are playing mostly as hypertrophic sip server...<br />Operators should shake up but don't have courage or ideas, pressure at regulatory side from internet companies in order to open the current model or to free the customers from SIMs (maybe the massive availability of wifi-enable handsets could be a first step).alehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01702581814630178534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-38971197280575167922009-08-20T10:23:01.325+01:002009-08-20T10:23:01.325+01:00>> Communication services won't really b...>> Communication services won't really be important in future? seriously?<br /><br />No. Communications services *that can only be provided through IMS capabilities*. Clearly, ordinary voice calls and SMS will remain important, for example.<br /><br />>> The mobile IMS business case is based on some revenue generating VAS on a small scale initially but now we are turning attention to the longer term case for IMS control.<br /><br />Ah-hah. So the answer is Mobile IMS Business Case = Protect voice & SMS profitability as much as possible, plus provide a platform for some other services. But we're not sure exactly what. <br /><br />There are two major risks here:<br />1) IMS actually makes voice & SMS *more* prone to erosion, for example if RCS (aka SMS2.0) provides a worse user experience than alternative messaging services, and everyone starts using Facebook or Twitter or Skype messaging instead.<br />2) IMS turns out to be a sub-optimal platform for these other VAS, to the extent that nobody spends much money on them. For example, does it have built-in business model inflexibility - perhaps confining users to a "subscription" model which seems inappropriate for their needs.<br /><br />The alternative is to separate the two:<br /><br />1) A strategy for protecting voice+SMS profitability (eg keep and extend CS with VoLGA or CS Fallback or NSN Fast-track) plus spending more on lobbying regulators<br />2) Look for the best platform (ecosystem, actually) for "cool new stuff". I'd suggest something that's easily accessible to 3rd-party developers & which is optimised for encouraging innovation around devices and user-experience, rather than QoS.<br /><br />I understand the need for occasional anonymity, btw. In consulting engagements I typically work under a strict NDA.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-64790356345314014032009-08-20T10:05:06.432+01:002009-08-20T10:05:06.432+01:00DB: "No, I understand the capabilities. I'...DB: "No, I understand the capabilities. I'm questioning the assumption that the services that can *exploit* those capabilities will really be that important."<br /><br />Communication services won't really be important in future? seriously?<br /><br />DB: "Assuming you're the same "anonymous", I note that you've failed to make any responses to my various comments about IMS-related revenue streams. Or is it all just about cost-savings vs. legacy CS? Where's the ROI? "<br /><br />I apologise that I have to remain anonymous, it is a very interesting discussion. We have had a valid business case for cost-saving over CS in the fixed network for some time and now have the same for FMC services. The mobile IMS business case is based on some revenue generating VAS on a small scale initially but now we are turning attention to the longer term case for IMS control.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-29674226902167132202009-08-20T09:52:29.265+01:002009-08-20T09:52:29.265+01:00> Again it's horses for courses, do you hav...> Again it's horses for courses, do you have a fundamental misunderstanding of IMS' intended capabilities?<br /><br />No, I understand the capabilities. I'm questioning the assumption that the services that can *exploit* those capabilities will really be that important.<br /><br />Assuming you're the same "anonymous", I note that you've failed to make any responses to my various comments about IMS-related revenue streams. Or is it all just about cost-savings vs. legacy CS? Where's the ROI? <br /><br />If I was a shareholder, I'd ask you to justify why you're investing in IMS capabilities, rather than *other* capabilities, with my money.<br /><br />Will IMS assist you in attaining successful future business models? Or is it more about mitigating the decline of old ones?Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-84992151707438666072009-08-20T09:39:04.099+01:002009-08-20T09:39:04.099+01:00DB: "But you're assuming that these IP-ba...DB: "But you're assuming that these IP-based services are *session-based* using SIP."<br /><br />Yes of course, I really don't understand your point about Amazon, Salesforce and CDNs? IMS was never intended to host "applications" like these, however it is certainly intended that applications like these should have access to IMS applications with mechanisms like IM-SSF/Parlay-X/SOAP/SOA/JSLEE/JSR289 etc etc<br /><br />Again it's horses for courses, do you have a fundamental misunderstanding of IMS' intended capabilities?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-44506231652837770602009-08-20T09:25:56.246+01:002009-08-20T09:25:56.246+01:00>> expect to serve them with IP based servic...>> expect to serve them with IP based services in the future<br /><br />But you're assuming that these IP-based services are *session-based* using SIP.<br /><br />Cloud computing (for example) is another category of IP-based service, yet is deliverable using various other IP access / control / QoS mechanisms. I don't see salesforce.com or Amazon Web Services clamouring for IMS.<br /><br />Content delivery in big chunks is better-delivered via IP using offload to dedicated CDNs, rather than complex through-the-middle control. <br /><br />(CDNs meet IMS.... a discussion for another post maybe)<br /><br />DB: "If I just wanted to "pick a fight", there's a lot more interesting topics in the world than IMS, that I have strong opinions about. "<br /><br />Anon>> Er? Hit a nerve?<br /><br />No, just an unsubtle and shameless advertising pitch.... I pick fights on this blog partly as a way to drum up business. <br /><br />Subtext: "Yes, I'm brave enough to take stand up and shots at sacred cows, unlike those other analysts & consultants huddling in fear behind the shields of consensus". <br />Apologies for the mixed metaphor.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-51648529951662609252009-08-20T09:06:49.747+01:002009-08-20T09:06:49.747+01:00DB: "Clearly, it depends on a whole host of f...DB: "Clearly, it depends on a whole host of factors. I can't answer what's probably a $million consulting problem in a blog comment. "<br /><br />Of course, I suppose the question was only intended to point out a flaw in your thinking - there is no realistic alternative to IMS at the moment for large operators wishing to migrate control to IP.<br /><br />Now, you may argue that "control" is now irrelevant but the fact remains that we have many millions of fixed and mobile subscribers and expect to serve them with IP based services in the future. <br /><br />DB: "If I just wanted to "pick a fight", there's a lot more interesting topics in the world than IMS, that I have strong opinions about. "<br /><br />Er? Hit a nerve?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-44085030028402609762009-08-20T08:56:14.466+01:002009-08-20T08:56:14.466+01:00DB says: "There's a second, unspoken half...DB says: "There's a second, unspoken half to that sentence, which is: "unless the industry itself doesn't have a firm future". <br /><br />And of course there's a third unspoken 'half' to that sentence - "unless the world economy itself doesn't have a firm future"<br /><br />and a fourth: "unless the world itself doesn't have a firm future."<br /><br />and a fifth "unless the solar system itself doesn't have a firm future"<br /><br />and a sixth "unless the universe doesn't succumb to heat death"<br /><br />and <br /><br />and<br /><br />I'm not buying it, my belief is that operators will continue to exist and sell services for a long time. They will certainly feel huge pressures from alternative OTT operators and the like but that will only serve to galvanise these behemoths into something approaching action. Will they lose significant market share? Certainly. Will they cease to exist as service providers? Poppycock.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-56840588579714578672009-08-20T08:48:28.716+01:002009-08-20T08:48:28.716+01:00Anonymous >> If I (as a big fixed & mobi...Anonymous >> If I (as a big fixed & mobile operator - 20 million users in my case) want to migrate my network to IP everywhere: access, transport and control, what do you suggest I should do with the control layer? Whack something together with XMPP as somebody suggests above? Run my CS network until it falls apart? Just forget about services and leave them to 3rd parties altogether?<br /><br />Clearly, it depends on a whole host of factors. I can't answer what's probably a $million consulting problem in a blog comment. <br /><br />I don't have all the answers - and if I did, I wouldn't give them all away for free here. This blog is here for the purpose of asking tough questions - I find it generates business in helping others solve problems, or validate their existing plans.<br /><br />If I just wanted to "pick a fight", there's a lot more interesting topics in the world than IMS, that I have strong opinions about. <br /><br />I'd certainly question what you mean by "services". There are plenty of examples of communications services that are not based around SIP/IMS or "sessions". Wholesaling of network capacity & capabilities, in particular, or web-based functions like advertising or some way of monetising customer data. <br /><br />So, to answer your question in the context of a project for you, I'd probably start by questioning the revenue forecasts and implicit assumptions you're making at the moment. <br /><br />If you're interested in something a bit more concrete, feel free to contact me via info AT disruptive-analysis DOT com.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-18302397924474555342009-08-20T08:33:31.652+01:002009-08-20T08:33:31.652+01:00>>IMS is by no means perfect (and you make v...>>IMS is by no means perfect (and you make valid points as to its flaws) but it has been selected by the industry and as such has a firm future.<br /><br /><br />There's a second, unspoken half to that sentence, which is: "unless the industry itself doesn't have a firm future". <br /><br />For all its successes, it's not as though the industry doesn't have a history of expensive, mutual mistakes - mobile TV, anyone? 3G videotelephony?<br /><br />There's a very fine line between the wisdom of crowds, and a consensual delusion. <br /><br />Part of my job as a "professional contrarian" involves trying to draw that line.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-40191703806827930752009-08-19T21:05:12.376+01:002009-08-19T21:05:12.376+01:00Anon: "These millions are peanuts compared to...Anon: "These millions are peanuts compared to the investments that are necessary in the radio network."<br /><br />Yes, perhaps (I think this will vary hugely depending on the age of the operator's network) but I would argue that this is investment that would have to happen for the most part irrespective of whether IMS is implemented or not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-39637802346261545612009-08-19T20:37:48.980+01:002009-08-19T20:37:48.980+01:00> Your argument that IMS is effectively a dead ...<i> > Your argument that IMS is effectively a dead duck flies in the face of the many many millions that has been invested in it by every operator in the world of any size.</i><br /><br />These millions are peanuts compared to the investments that are necessary in the radio network.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />QAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-70574211330572444122009-08-19T20:19:52.169+01:002009-08-19T20:19:52.169+01:00Another problem with RCS is that SIP is used for s...Another problem with RCS is that SIP is used for signalling. Presence using SIP has <a href="http://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-ietf-simple-interdomain-scaling-analysis-07" rel="nofollow">serious scalability problems</a> when it comes to cross domain traffic. The problem with SIP is that messages are huge, must larger than presence messages in other protocols.<br /><br />SIP is definitely useful in some cases but presence is not one of them.Eelcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08331490904810212637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-88243179952026935922009-08-19T19:43:21.167+01:002009-08-19T19:43:21.167+01:00DB: "Last time I checked, both the Internet a...DB: "Last time I checked, both the Internet and corporate networks seem to run perfectly well without it. "<br /><br />I know that you are being facetious but I'm not sure what you are implying here?<br /><br />If I (as a big fixed & mobile operator - 20 million users in my case) want to migrate my network to IP everywhere: access, transport and control, what do you suggest I should do with the control layer? Whack something together with XMPP as somebody suggests above? Run my CS network until it falls apart? Just forget about services and leave them to 3rd parties altogether?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-16357767993661769332009-08-19T15:54:13.642+01:002009-08-19T15:54:13.642+01:00IMS being bearer agnostic does not imply that it h...IMS being bearer agnostic does not imply that it has no bearer awareness, quite the opposite, IMS apps are capable of adjusting depending on the access type.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-51686798090930028762009-08-19T15:51:40.039+01:002009-08-19T15:51:40.039+01:00Your points are interesting Dean, I just don't...Your points are interesting Dean, I just don't find them terribly convincing. Your argument that IMS is effectively a dead duck flies in the face of the many many millions that has been invested in it by every operator in the world of any size.<br /><br />IMS is by no means perfect (and you make valid points as to its flaws) but it has been selected by the industry and as such has a firm future.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-68911029541544605952009-08-19T15:16:04.845+01:002009-08-19T15:16:04.845+01:00Davide
My views on RCS are well-known. Numerous l...Davide<br /><br />My views on RCS are well-known. Numerous limitations, notably no out-of-the box Internet integration, no 3rd-party developer support, unclear model with prepay, exclusion of Apple and RIM from the initial (& current!) participants, presence kills the battery, undesirable link between phonebook & access contract [do we need contact portability laws?] and various others. <br /><br />The French operators appear to be the main proponents of it at present, plus certain people at 3 or 4 other Tier-1 MNOs. <br /><br />Various others are ambivalent or outright hostile.<br /><br />My first comment was last year:<br />http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2008/04/ims-rich-communications-suite-necessary.html<br /><br />I'm also an associate of Telco 2.0 & concur with the views in this article (and see my own comment at the end)<br />http://www.telco2.net/blog/2009/02/rcs_really_considered_harmful.html<br /><br />Some good comments here too:<br />http://blog.dial2do.com/2009/02/27/telco-20-guys-put-the-boot-into-ims-rcs/<br /><br />One amusing thing about RCS was that for some time, a link to my blog post above was included on the Wikipedia page. Not by me, I don't know who put it there. But it's conspicuous that someone else edited it out a while later, after it had become one of my most-read blogposts....<br /><br />DeanDean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-7121637124350716482009-08-19T14:32:11.776+01:002009-08-19T14:32:11.776+01:00>Push-to-talk is niche
>Video-sharing is poi...>Push-to-talk is niche<br />>Video-sharing is pointless<br />>RCS is not fit-for-purpose<br />>MMtel is unsuitable for >VoIP<br />>Presence & IM is a battery-killer<br />>Hosted PBXs aren't massmarket<br /><br />I agree that IMS has a very difficult business case. However, I think RCS is quite a good idea.<br /><br />After all, phonebooks and sms menus in our phones have not changed in a decade. RCS is a way to put in a phone something similar to Skype-like interface.<br /><br />Somethings seems to happen on RCS in France:<br />"Bouygues Telecom, Orange and SFR announce a user trial for new multimedia communication services for the second half of 2009"<br /><br />http://www.francetelecom.com/en_EN/finance/news/cp090211en.jsp<br /><br />Can you please elaborate more on why RCS is not fit-for-purpose?Davidenoreply@blogger.com