tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post4435107191177351938..comments2024-03-20T22:57:03.923+00:00Comments on Dean Bubley's Disruptive Wireless: Google CEO on mobile advertising: Golden Goose or Dead Duck?Dean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-47198221180157545902008-06-02T20:20:00.000+01:002008-06-02T20:20:00.000+01:00It is certainly very interesting to see lots [all]...It is certainly very interesting to see lots [all] of the response are coming from a US-centered viewpoint as Dean has described Google in his original post.<BR/><BR/>It will be hard failure if Google applies the same PC/Internet mindset to the mobile platform; the behavioral model is simply different.VitaminChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11867967457842833196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-64126570405202405982008-06-01T23:17:00.000+01:002008-06-01T23:17:00.000+01:00You might find thishttp://www.catkeynes.com/CS0001...You might find this<BR/>http://www.catkeynes.com/CS00013.html<BR/>An interesting perspective. Even if the market is as big as Google says, it's not necessarily Googles to take.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-70988388763506431182008-06-01T19:13:00.000+01:002008-06-01T19:13:00.000+01:00Personal belief? The boundary will blur to the po...Personal belief? The boundary will blur to the point of meaningless between PC and mobile internets. Google's model will increasingly rely on them being part of the 'act', not just the 'display' and 'click', which means pushing the map/coupon/address/product details/etc to your mobile. Or to put it another way, we're already busy printing stuff out to 'go mobile', so take a little liberty with the definitions et voila mobile e-commerce is already huge (just still analogue).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-44215814187255641232008-05-31T09:28:00.000+01:002008-05-31T09:28:00.000+01:00AnonymousInteresting concept, but I highly doubt i...Anonymous<BR/><BR/>Interesting concept, but I highly doubt it. <BR/><BR/>Dual-mode GSM/WiFi phones have no massmarket future in emerging economies: WiFi is useless unless you have it attached to fixed broadband or a company LAN. Public hotspots don't cut it as they only cover a small fraction of locations where users want coverage. Metro WiFi is useless (and dead anyway).<BR/><BR/>Even if emerging middle-classes can afford broadband, there's a lack of copper/cable in many countries.<BR/><BR/>WiMAX... hmmm, maybe. In low-cost devices suitable for emerging markets, and combined with GSM? Come back in 2014 or 2015. And even then, much depends on spectrum allocations - 2.5GHz is either going to need tons of cellsites, or it won't go through walls.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-66162727945808714762008-05-31T05:27:00.000+01:002008-05-31T05:27:00.000+01:00Dean,I remain convinced that Google's end-play for...Dean,<BR/><BR/>I remain convinced that Google's end-play for mobile advertising is in the emerging economies, probably over dual-mode handsets (GSM + WiFi and/or WiMAX) running Android.<BR/><BR/>Even the cellular operator's voice+SMS ARPU (in emerging economies) remains sub-$10, Google stands to benefit by delivering ad-supported access (WiMAX and/or WiFi) and ad-supported content. Google has made investments in WiFi and WiMAX networks, femtocells, etc, and now talking up "white spaces". It's clear they want to play in all the network possibilities for the future.<BR/><BR/>Android will finally be about low-cost phones (and related devices, including laptops connected to computing clouds) coming out of Chinese ODMs. Sure, Android is now centered in the US and UK, what's not to say that kids in India, China and Russia will NOT develop Android apps in the future? And the chipsets coming out Intel, Nvidia+Via, Qualcomm and the others will support both mobile handsets and mobile internet devices (< 10-inch displays?). What if the MIDs themselves support all manner of networks (as does Via's recently announced OpenBook) - whether embedded or through USB dongles?<BR/><BR/>At which point, the differentiation between "mobile advertising" and "PC advertising" will be moot?<BR/><BR/>Google will oblige with datacenters to serve up the content and applications.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-4788066868242094182008-05-30T11:08:00.000+01:002008-05-30T11:08:00.000+01:00Manuel - well, not quite, you can take paper coupo...Manuel - well, not quite, you can take paper coupons, direct mail or print adverts to the store too. But I see your point. <BR/><BR/>However, what I was trying to say was that advert-to-purchase can be conducted end-to-end on a PC for large or complex products. We're unlikely to see people comparison-shopping for refrigerators on the mobiles, and then using m-commerce to get one delivered. <BR/><BR/>(Or finding, buying & downloading analyst research reports, for that matter)<BR/><BR/>Ants - yes, good point. Although by your definition, just simply calling the car dealer on your mobile could also count (rather than booking the test drive in the browser).Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-73916958037261693582008-05-30T10:42:00.000+01:002008-05-30T10:42:00.000+01:00Dean, Agree with much of your analysis here in ...Dean, <BR/><BR/>Agree with much of your analysis here in relation to pure mobile internet display ads. All the numbers point to maybe a $10-15 per user/year ad revenue potential across the primary billion users and that already factors in better mobile targeting, new display formats, etc. <BR/><BR/>I think where this does get interesting is how mobile is used in the broader ad/marketing mix. Mobile is not a great display format but a brilliant personal response and tracking mechanism - for almost all other ad formats. People won't buy a car on their phone, but they may use their handset to respond to a billboard or press ad to book a test drive. <BR/><BR/>I'd wager by 2013 we are not talking much about the value of mobile advertising per se, but seeing users participate and respond to a whole range of ad and mktg offers in ways we are only now beginning to explore.<BR/><BR/>Question becomes how do Google, Microsoft, operators and others monetise that??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-26719635738274132022008-05-30T10:37:00.000+01:002008-05-30T10:37:00.000+01:00A couple of points regarding this interesting post...A couple of points regarding this interesting post: mobile advertising is going to be huge (which does not mean greater than internet, not in a 5 yr timespan as you say). It won't be huge by exporting what works in the internet, as you say. And lastly, I cannot agree with the tracking issue: mobile has the conditions to be the best (if not perfect) way to track from online to 'real world'. It's the only channel you can take with you to the store.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-82693430406918981142008-05-30T08:14:00.000+01:002008-05-30T08:14:00.000+01:00.... putting it another way, Steve Ballmer must be....... putting it another way, Steve Ballmer must be breathing a sigh of relief.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-88051705517990864582008-05-30T08:02:00.000+01:002008-05-30T08:02:00.000+01:00Sure, mobile advertising is about more than the we...Sure, mobile advertising is about more than the web - look at Puddingmedia, which uses speech recognition to insert ads in the voice stream, for example. Or adverts in ringback tones.<BR/><BR/>But on the other hand, the article with the Google CEO quotes *him* saying "The next big wave in advertising is the mobile internet."<BR/><BR/>I don't spend much time looking at mobile advertising per se, so although my gut feel says "it'll be important, but not *that* important", I'm not professing to be an outright expert. <BR/><BR/>That said, a lot of mobile ad specialists I talk to *do* take the view that 3 billion people are homogenous, and will eventually migrate to smartphones with browsers and flatrate data. <BR/><BR/>I even meet some people who - against all evidence - insist that the next billion Internet users "will get their first taste of the web on a mobile phone".<BR/><BR/>This post was specifically about Google. I think that Google has *at the highest level* this type of naive and simplistic view about mobile. And I think it's about to make a huge strategic error (or at least a very convincing bluff).Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-16139594739723293052008-05-30T07:44:00.000+01:002008-05-30T07:44:00.000+01:00meetingminutes you are incredibly understated in y...meetingminutes you are incredibly understated in your comment which I admire. I will put it a different way:<BR/><BR/>Dean - if we ASSUME that its all about mobile being 'the next web' and the formats being 'as is' and it all being down to CPM, impressions and ARPU then you are right - it may not stack up.<BR/><BR/>Trouble is though.....its NOT about that.<BR/><BR/>Its about something which unfortunately isnt ubiquitous presently thus making it hard for us to fathom entirely.<BR/><BR/>Sure - based on the logic you use it seems like a 'tall order'.<BR/><BR/>The thing is, mobile advertising is not to be taken as a snapshot of today. Not in format, context, mechanic or budget. Due to this - although much of your argument is valid (as I recently told you very late at night in a pub), it simply isn't the whole story as the landscape hasn't unfolded to a large enough degree yet.<BR/><BR/>....nothing to stop passing comment of course - personally, as the web is an un-ending archive, I would be wary of using static thought to predict a volatile and un-predictable future.JMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03576569498432226099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-88003246343196690262008-05-30T07:41:00.000+01:002008-05-30T07:41:00.000+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.JMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03576569498432226099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-80750421530279744432008-05-30T02:08:00.000+01:002008-05-30T02:08:00.000+01:00Without going into a lot of detail or looking at t...Without going into a lot of detail or looking at the maths, one thing that needs to be considered is that "Mobile Advertising" does not mean "Mobile Internet Advertising". In other words, there are many more ways of advertising that are made possible with a mobile device, other than putting some words or images on a mobile browser.meetingminuteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13938156053502887772noreply@blogger.com