tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post8765305044276585740..comments2024-03-13T09:40:11.948+00:00Comments on Dean Bubley's Disruptive Wireless: The smoking gun - I think O2 UK has FALLING mobile data usageDean Bubleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-86644831659493084172011-12-07T10:31:09.035+00:002011-12-07T10:31:09.035+00:00Anonymous
Yes - you could be right. But if so, th...Anonymous<br /><br />Yes - you could be right. But if so, that points to the fact that very basic policy (ie fair-use caps) is all that's needed to solve the data "explosion". <br /><br />No need for rushing to LTE, or fancy DPI use cases & all the regulatory headaches of Net Neutrality. Operators can improve revenue by doing clever stuff on billing / charging side such as loyalty schemes and so forth.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-66785008638760363912011-11-29T11:01:06.145+00:002011-11-29T11:01:06.145+00:00Fair Usage Policy - data throughput down because p...Fair Usage Policy - data throughput down because people are throttled if they exceed their data allowance. Simple really, needs no investigation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-19908245300594566942011-11-24T10:33:57.558+00:002011-11-24T10:33:57.558+00:00Anonymous - many thanks for your comment "fro...Anonymous - many thanks for your comment "from the sharp end" of things.<br /><br />I'm also uncertain - there are various reasons why we might see a double s-curve shape (eg massive ramp up of tablet-based video in 2012-13). <br /><br />There's also probably a couple of one-time effects like the end of flatrate, or the "USB dongle boom" falling off (partly because of more free public WiFi, perhaps).<br /><br />Either way, I definitely think that a lot of the forecasts need downgrading, either in terms of absolute volume, or at least pushing out the timeline to the right by a year or two.<br /><br />Thanks again for your input.Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-82179296956453662922011-11-24T10:28:18.478+00:002011-11-24T10:28:18.478+00:00> The unlimited, exponential growth forecasts a...> The unlimited, exponential growth forecasts are wrong.<br /><br />Unlimited, exponential growth forecasts are always wrong and anybody who makes them is an idiot.<br /><br />My job at [an operator that is not o2 uk] involves load monitoring and forecasting for [an indirect proxy measure of mobile data traffic]. What I think I'm seeing in the numbers for Q3 is the shoulder of the s-curve arriving about a year earlier and at a signficantly lower level than I epxected. <br /><br />I'm not yet convinced whether this is a real indication of demand growth levelling off, or an artefact of some kind of temporary constraint such as network capacity or the iphone product cycle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-42632093973067748552011-11-17T14:12:10.242+00:002011-11-17T14:12:10.242+00:00I think there's a risk looking at O2 UK and dr...I think there's a risk looking at O2 UK and drawing more general conclusions.As you'll be aware, O2 has made significant reductions in its data allowances, as I've previously discussed here.<br /><br />http://www.unwiredinsight.com/2011/3g-data-allowances<br /><br />With LTE nowhere in sight, O2 UK does not have the capacity to support high usage. I'd argue that usage is essentially being artificially constrained.<br /><br />The downside of this is that growth in the penetration of mobile broadband in the UK won't be as high as it could be. Mobile broadband penetration in the UK has definitely been slowing, as discussed here.<br /><br />http://www.unwiredinsight.com/2011/mobile-broadband-penetration-europeMark Heathhttp://www.unwiredinsight.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-41737543584257147392011-11-12T15:33:14.481+00:002011-11-12T15:33:14.481+00:00Hi Jason
Depends what you mean by "usage&quo...Hi Jason<br /><br />Depends what you mean by "usage" (time? bytes? value? something else?) and "data transfer". And which types of phones, and where?<br /><br />Certainly the amount of time spend talking on smartphones is diminishing as a % of total time they're being actively used<br /><br />DeanDean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-6418571713880978382011-11-12T12:51:41.215+00:002011-11-12T12:51:41.215+00:00I've just read somewhere that 97% of usage on ...I've just read somewhere that 97% of usage on phones is now for data transfer?<br /><br />Does that fit into the figures you suggest or is that just pie-in-the-sky?jason @ Voiphttp://www.think7.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-68907404440422875542011-11-11T18:10:23.263+00:002011-11-11T18:10:23.263+00:00Hi DanG
Yes, it looks like you might have solved ...Hi DanG<br /><br />Yes, it looks like you might have solved the simultaneous equations to get there without a sequential decline. <br /><br />Although having absolutely flatlined traffic for three quarters +/- 1% seems to be pretty unlikely!<br /><br />I think we need to have one more data point to solve this precisely. (Or perhaps something anecdotal)<br /><br />I've also managed to find 100 / 120 / 137 / 144 / 145 / 143 / 148 which gives a 1% decline in Q2 but reverts to 3% rise in Q3.<br /><br />Either way... it doesn't look "crunched". <br /><br />There's also this quote from June 2010 "At O2, we’re seeing a doubling of data traffic on our networks every four months" just to add to the maths complexity<br /><br />http://www.telecoms.com/20933/o2-data-cap-protest-will-help-out-o2/Dean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-35696275410299305562011-11-11T17:55:39.916+00:002011-11-11T17:55:39.916+00:00Sorry to be a mathematical pedant, but your number...Sorry to be a mathematical pedant, but your numbers don't seem to be right to me. I take it you calculated the Q3 2011 number by applying the 7.9% growth to Q3 2010? When I use your numbers and the year-to-date growth numbers, I get a different answer for Q3 2011.<br /><br />I have come up a variation which fits both the YTD and YoY by quarter figures:<br />2010 Q1 - 100<br />2010 Q2 - 123<br />2010 Q3 - 142<br />2010 Q4 - 143<br />2010 Q1 - 145<br />2010 Q2 - 147.1<br />2010 Q3 - 153.2<br /><br />You'll be disappointed to see that this doesn't show any sequential decline! The growth at the end of 2010 is pretty anaemic, which seems to fit with the introduction of O2's data caps (though all previous smartphone customers still had unlimited, customers upgrading the iPhone 4 would be subject to the caps and it makes sense to me that many of the "power users" driving the growth would be the type of people eager to get the latest device ASAP).<br /><br />The other factor though, that we should probably factor in is that if it is indeed a "seasonal variation" as they claim then some variation should be seen in Q3 2010. Neither your solutions nor mine show that variation. So I'm also sceptical about that. <br /><br />Of course, if someone spots a problem with my numbers, then this all goes out the window!DanGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17351910003480650605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-63342501426201088442011-11-11T17:54:32.414+00:002011-11-11T17:54:32.414+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.DanGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17351910003480650605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-61417235804952224312011-11-11T15:37:52.305+00:002011-11-11T15:37:52.305+00:00Dean,
Actually, growth in overall mobile traffic ...Dean,<br /><br />Actually, growth in overall mobile traffic is less important. What is important is if traffic during peak hours (9pm to 11pm), which drives network capex and TM decisions, is growing in an exponential fashion. What is important is the impact of this peak traffic growth on sector/cell congestion,<br /><br />Verizon Wireless is implementing a well-thought out (and very well explained, I may add) policy where they penalize heavy users during sector congestion.Ram Krishnanhttp://www.vidscale.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-6182856205185084422011-11-11T13:13:07.556+00:002011-11-11T13:13:07.556+00:00Ram
Yes, I'd forgotten about Michael's ar...Ram<br /><br />Yes, I'd forgotten about Michael's articles. He's called Overcapacity before me.<br /><br />I think I commented on one of them.<br /><br />He's spot-on about most of the reasons, rationale and implications - as well as many of the core responses.<br /><br />HOWEVER, I think he's wrong about the idea of toll-free / zero-rated apps. Can't and won't work, for the reason that apps evolve and change much faster than a billing and rating plan ever can. Plus mashups and the nature of the web mean you can't really assign traffic flows to an "application" as perceived by the end-user<br /><br />DeanDean Bubleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05719150957239368264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17500930.post-61468530340068314672011-11-11T12:59:29.969+00:002011-11-11T12:59:29.969+00:00Dean,
Michael Mace had written about this a while...Dean,<br /><br />Michael Mace had written about this a while back.<br /><br />http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2011/06/who-will-pay-for-mobile-data.html<br /><br />Basically, his point is that because of economics and user psychology, he thinks we're headed for a slowdown in the growth of mobile data. The unlimited, exponential growth forecasts are wrong. He believes the ultimate mobile data market will be smaller, and much more segmented, than most people expect.<br /><br />I believe that tiered plans and WiFi offload will ultimately result in a more measured growth in mobile data - it will be interesting to see if O2 is a special situation or not.Ram Krishnanhttp://www.vidscale.comnoreply@blogger.com