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Monday, October 27, 2008

Massmarket PC-based VoIPo3G

Sign of the times.

I'm sitting in my normal branch of Starbucks in London. There's a young girl a few tables away, with a basic notebook, and dongle from 3 UK. Not an obvious member of the mobile industry / enthusiast fraternity - she looks like a typical foreign student in London.

She's on Skype, with a headset, doing a video call, with, I'd guess from her body language, a family member somewhere in Asia.

It was a year ago that I started saying that VoIPo3G was going to be more important than VoWLAN in the medium term. Coupled with last week's fring/Mobilkom announcement, I'd say we're pretty much on track, despite the slow rollout of HSUPA.

I've had a couple of people ask me about updates of my VoIPo3G Business Models report, and it's something I'll probably do in H1 2009. But if anyone's interested in the current edition, I reckon that it's still pretty much valid - get in touch with me at information AT disruptive-analysis.com for details, or to inquire about a VoIPo3G workshop.

2 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:55 am

    Dean

    Always helpful to refer to "real users" in our industry - we can often get carried away with the technical possibilities of our marvelous new gadgets!

    Two observations regarding "She's on Skype, with a headset, doing a video call" (using 3G HSPA dongle from 3).

    1) Why use a 3G dongle when Starbucks is renowned for its public WiFi service? Has mobile broadband already replaced public WiFi as the broadband connection of choice when out and about? Personally I think so, and its partly due to the ease of use (1 subscription, just works anywhere, attractive flat rate pricing).

    2) Why use a netbook for videoconf instead of a 3G mobile? I know many people with video-call capable 3G handsets, including myself. I've never seen anyone use the feature, except for curiosity. This could be because video calling benefits from sitting down/stationary with a reasonable sized screen (so ideal netbook/laptop application). It could also be that Skype and other free over-the-top services connect easily and directly with PC's at home. And almost certainly because the cost is unknown and/or expensive - especially for international calls. Its hard to charge for "calling applications" (like video calling) in addition to the bit transfer.

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  2. Hi David

    1) Starbucks in the UK is still tightly affiliated to T-Mobile. Like almost all UK hotspot providers, it is extremely expensive and clunky for one-off access. It's £5 for an hour!!
    http://www.t-mobile.co.uk/services/mobile-internet/hotspot/costs/
    (*Nobody* in the UK buys hotspot subscriptions)
    It's also a pain entering long hexadecimal login passwords.
    Conversely, both 3 and T-Mobile offer simple prepay and contract 3G dongles, starting at £10 a month.

    I now use my 3 dongle instead of (paid) WiFi in the UK. But if there's free WiFi (eg at a hotel), I'll always use that out of preference as it's always faster, lower power consumption & more reliable.

    2) There are many, many, reasons why nobody ever uses videotelephony on a 3G phone. Some of the main ones are:
    - Cost (especially for an international call)
    - Small screen with poor picture & frame rate
    - Ergonomics - much easier to put a PC on the table in front of you, rather than holding a phone at arm's length for an hour.
    - Multiple windows at the same time
    - Better user interface
    - Presence & chat windows also on screen
    - Power consumption
    - Needs the other person to have a 3G phone as well (and at maybe 25% global penentration the chance of any 2 people both having it is 6%)
    - Ability to run a browser simultaneously so you can discuss web stuff (or other applications)
    - Skype user experience is very good
    - You can't accept inbound video calls on your phone if you're walking, driving, or wearing a bluetooth headset
    - Probably another 10+ reasons!

    Put together, these certainly mean that PC-based videocalling will always be much more important than phone-based options.

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