Wi-Fi dominates in the home, but the industry cannot be complacent about the challenges of 5G

I recently gave a keynote speech at the Wi-Fi Now conference in Shanghai (link), which was co-located with the Wi-Fi Alliance's Asia regional members' meeting. My presentation (link) covered the forthcoming opportunities and challenges for Wi-Fi technology and solutions.

WiFi Opportunities & Challenges: Positioning vs. 5G from Dean Bubley

My key points were that of a mixed, nuanced, good/bad story:

• The position of Wi-Fi in the home is extremely strong. The growth of whole-home Wi-Fi using extenders and mesh-network technology, cloud management platforms and the imminent arrival of Wi-Fi6 (formerly 802.11ax) for more capacity and performance, gives it an unassailable lead for most domestic applications and devices.
• 4G and 5G pose almost no threat to Wi-Fi dominance in the home. While smartphone users may spend slightly more time on cellular if they have large/unlimited data plans, this is more than offset by greater use of Wi-Fi-only devices (TVs, PCs, smart speakers & other IoT products). Few homes or people will go smartphone-only, especially in developed economies. Furthermore, cellular networks lack the in-home positioning and intelligence layer of newer Wi-Fi solutions. Fixed-wireless 5G will almost always need Wi-Fi inside, connected to an external/window antenna. Even in the (few) places 5G FWA can substitute for fixed/cable broadband, it will still mostly deliver last-metre connections via Wi-Fi.
• A small number of future consumer IoT devices may have "direct to cellular" connections, but these will be the minority, typically restricted to out-of-home products like pet trackers or smart watches. 5G/eSIM-based PCs, wearables & tablets will remain a tiny % of the total device universe. Don't expect 5G-enabled TVs or 4G/NB-IoT washing machines. For low-power smart home products, alternative connections like Bluetooth and ZigBee will remain important - not everything can use Wi-Fi. There might be some LPWAN devices using SigFox, LoRa or perhap Wi-Fi's own HaLow technology, although that is still moving only slowly.
• In "carpeted enterprise" offices, Wi-Fi will remain critical for many users, alongside wired ethernet for desktops, servers and other non-moving equipment. While there will be a growing need for better indoor 4G/5G coverage (especially in higher frequencies), that cannot replace normal LAN technology. Users will expect both Wi-Fi and cellular to have reliable indoor coverage, capacity and security. The Venn diagram of use-cases only has a narrow overlap. That said, delivering good Wi-Fi indoors is not easy - and like cellular, it will need more "deep fibre", especially for higher frequency bands in future, like 6GHz or 60GHz.
• Industrial Wi-Fi faces more challenges. While for many applications, industrial-grade Wi-Fi and meshes is widely used, the growth of IoT, robotics and realtime automation/cloud will start to make wireless connectivity more business-critical, and in some cases safety-critical. Unlicensed spectrum, and limited coverage/mobility support may make Wi-Fi's role prone to substitution by public and private 4G/5G networks in some cases. There appears to be more work being done to make spectrum available, as well as integrate with manufacturing / process machinery on the cellular side. There doesn't appear to be as much of a cohesive ecosystem - I don't see a Wi-Fi equivalent of the 5G Alliance for Connected Industries and Automation, for instance. 
• Limited focus on verticals and testbeds. While I'm skeptical of mobile operators' roles in pushing 5G solutions on various sectors, there is no doubt that the cellular industry is working hard. There are countless "5G for Sector X" associations and collaborations, multiple university and government 5G research institutes, and promotional efforts galore. Why is there no equivalent "University of ABC Wi-Fi Innovation Lab", of "Wi-Fi Healthcare Alliance", where vendors and developers can experiment with new use-cases and create more public "buzz"? The industry - and its major vendors - need to step up and increase funding for this sort of thing. Broadcom, Qualcomm, Cisco, Google, Intel, HPE, Amazon, Arris etc - I'm looking at you.
• Public Wi-Fi faces growing risks. While I'm writing this article on my laptop in a cafe, most of my fellow coffee-drinkers are using smartphones. This location has a simple one-click access to Wi-Fi, but other places often have crass and privacy-invasive attempts to "monetise" Wi-Fi, with extra login personal data demanded, or attempts to get users to connect with FB or Twitter accounts. The growing number of large/unlimited data-plans, coupled to reduced roaming fees for travellers, and even tethering for PCs, makes the relative pain of accessing 4G vs. public Wi-Fi very different to a few years ago. Venues wouldn't force people to give email addresses or social logins to use amenities like elevators or bathroooms; they shouldn't for Wi-Fi either. The industry should campaign against cumbersome logins. It doesn't need full automation like PassPoint or HotSpot 2.0 - just "frictionless" access. One click on a splash-screen is fine.
• The Wi-Fi brand is over-protected. Technically, Wi-Fi is a brand that can only be used by products or SPs that get certification from Wi-Fi Alliance. The technology is based on IEEE 802.11 standards. While the guarantee of interoperabilty and "it works anywhere" is great, this poses a problem. There's a lot of cool stuff being done with 802.11 that isn't standardised and fully certified. I've seen licensed-spectrum versions (potentially more suitable for industrial markets). There's some great innovation with 60GHz 802.11, formerly called WiGig. Some vendors have proprietary tweaks, like Blu Wireless allowing gigabit transmission to fast-moving vehicles with handoffs in the UK AutoAir testbed (link). These innovators can't use the term "Wi-Fi", so instead they call their products "5G", adding to the noise and hype - and its impact on regulators and policymakers who then think that 5G deserves special treatment (and spectrum). In my view, the Wi-Fi industry is undermining its own importance, especially if they want to create a case for 6GHz, or other future bands. Most people in politics don't grasp Wi-Fi's level of economic and societal contributions, so to me this seems to be an own-goal. Maybe WFA should create a new category called something like Wi-FiX for "experimental" technologies to capture this extra goodwill.
• Wi-Fi combines well with other technologies. I'm seeing a growing amount of important intersections between Wi-Fi and other domains. AI, for instance, is being used to manage Wi-Fi fleets by major service providers, as well as cloud companies. Juniper just acquired Mist Systems for its AI-enhanced Wi-Fi solution (link). It's being integrated with both consumer and enterprise IoT. Amazon just acquired eero, a home mesh-Wi-Fi specialist. I'd be unsurprised to see some sort of Alexa-eero hybrids in future (link). And I've written before about the Wi-Fi + blockchain opportunities, including those of my friends at AmmbrTech (link) and assorted others. There's some cool stuff using Wi-Fi for motion-detection as well.
• The Wi-Fi industry needs to be emphatic - and fast - about creating versions designed to work in all spectrum bands, licensed, unlicensed and shared. There are use-cases for all of these, especially with moves to opening up CBRS and c-Band for more innovative use-cases. We see cellular technologies adopting unlicensed variants like 4G-LAA and MulteFire. Wi-Fi should make the opposite & equivalent move.
• Yes, 5G and Wi-Fi will work together. Absoutely, I see many reasons to integrate 4G, 5G and Wi-Fi in various guises, both at a network level and service level. We will see MNOs that have big Wi-Fi footprints. We'll see 5G FWA with Wi-Fi indoors. We see dual-connected home broadband gateways with both fibre and cellular modems. We have offload, onload, Wi-Fi first MVNOs, Wi-Fi calling and and non-3GPP access to 4G and 5G core networks. This trend will continue. Yet I still see ignorant references to Wi-Fi being "part of 5G", or "killed by 5G". It is neither; sometimes the technologies will be complementary, and sometimes competitive or substitutive. But in all cases, they compete for the oxygen of publicity, attention and policymaker focus. The Wi-Fi industry needs to shout louder to the media and governments.
• This is Wi-Fi's 20th Anniversary year as a consumer brand, notably. Maybe Apple (which launched its original AirPort in 1999) might pull a "One more thing..." surprise this year...

In summary: I'm very positive about Wi-Fi, especially with the capabilities of mesh, cloud and Wi-Fi6 for the home. But I'm also concerned that the industry isn't being sufficiently ambitious. Yes, in the US there are a lot of positive signs from the FCC about 6GHz The recent European emphasis on Wi-Fi derived DSRC for vehicles is another win. But while those could be big successes, and keep the industry busy for a long time, it's not enough. 

In industrial use-cases, Wi-Fi faces significant challenges. For public hotspots, some venues' ludicrous sign-up demands are self-defeating and harm overall public perception of the technology. HaLow isn't getting enough attention in the LPWA space. The industry needs to market itself more loudly, more globally, and to a wider audience. It needs to create more space for innovators and developers, with collaboration forums and easier access to documents - and a willingness to extend the brand's goodwill, even to those that aren't doing something fully-standardised.

The Wi-Fi industry deserves congratulations on 20 years and $2trillion of economic value. But it needs to double-down on its scope and ambitions, to make sure it will be in strong position at its 40th as well.


Watch out soon for a podcast covering this article - my SoundCloud account is here (link)

And if this is an area where you'd be interested in my input for advisory work, speaking/presentations, or other engagements, please contact me via information AT disruptive-analysis dot com

I will also shortly be publishing a long-form research report on the Consumer Wi-Fi sector, as part of my Network Futures subscription stream with STL Partners (link). It looks at some of the issues raised here in more detail, and focuses in particular on the implications and role of telecom operators and other broadband providers. I'll update this blog post, and also put out details on my Twitter account (link) when it's available.

Thoughts on roaming, local SIM cards and eSIMs

I spend a large part of my life travelling, both for work and leisure. But while I find connectivity to be hugely important, I refuse to pay ludicrous per-MB data roaming prices.

So until a couple of years ago, this meant that I had a large collection of (mostly non-functioning) local mobile SIM cards I'd bought in various countries. Typically, I'd use them in a spare phone, so I could keep me normal phone on my home SIM to get inbound SMS or missed voice-call notifications. I'd also often use the second phone as a WiFi tether for my primary iPhone.

At one point I found old SIMs from the US, Singapore, Mozambique, Vanuatu, UAE and Australia in my wallet. In some places it was easy to get local SIMs, while in others it involved cumbersome registration with a passport or other documents. Places like India and Japan were a real pain, and I just didn't bother, relying on WiFi & an occasional extortionate SMS.

That has changed in recent years - and there are now multiple options for travellers:

• Local SIMs are often easier to obtain. Booths at airports are well-practised at registering documents, sorting APN setting and so on, in a couple of minutes
• In the EU, roaming prices have fallen progressively to zero - often including non-EU European countries as well. Various other groups of countries or regional operator groups have also created free-roaming zones.
• Some operators offer customers flat-rate or even free roaming to other countries, such as T-Mobile US's free (but 2G-only) international data, or $5/day for capped LTE (link). I use Vodafone UK's £6/day "roam further" plan quite a lot, especially when visiting the US (link).
• Many travellers can get dual-SIM phones, so they can easily switch between home and local SIMs without fiddling about with trays & pins. (There's no dual-SIM iPhone though. Grrrr. More on this later). 
• Various companies (eg Truphone) offer global/roaming SIMs, and have hoped that frequent travellers would use these as their primary/only SIM. The problem with this is that they typically rely on MVNO relationships in each country, including the user's home market - which often means poorer data plans than can be bought domestically from the main MNOs. You also don't get to benefit from multi-play plans, bundled content and so forth. I'm also not entirely convinced that MVNO traffic always gets as well-treated as the host MNO's own customer data - and that's likely to get worse with 5G and network-slicing.
• Some providers pitch global SIMs alongside rented/bought portable WiFI hotspots, such as TEP Wireless (link). The problem is that these often just cover the same countries as the better roaming plans from normal mobile operators. 

So... in July I went on holiday to the Cape Verde islands, off the coast of West Africa. Beautiful archipelago of 9 inhabited islands, with beaches, mountains, volcanoes, hiking trails and small villages nested in sheer-sided valleys. Neither Vodafone nor any of the travel-SIM companies seemed to cover either of its two main networks. So I went and bought an unlocked WiFi hotspot (from TP-Link), and hoped to get a local SIM on arrival, as I'd read a few suggestions it was possible.

It wasn't just possible, but remarkably easy. Walking through the arrivals door from customs at the airport, I was handed a free SIM by a representative of one of the operators (Unitel) within seconds. When I unwrapped it later in the day, I found it had 200MB of data included for free. No registration needed, no upfront payment, nothing. 3G network only, but that was fine to assure myself it worked OK. The next day I found a branded store & decided to stick with that network rather than check the other one (good marketing / customer acquisition strategy!) as the price-plans seemed fine. 

I paid €12 for 5GB of data, valid for a month. There was also a 7GB and maybe a 10 or 12GB one, but I wasn't planning on streaming video. In other words, €1 a day with about 500MB available per day, for normal mobile usage during my 11-day visit. The helpful lady in the shop sorted it all out for me, including temporarily switching my new SIM into her phone to send the setup / dataplan-purchase messages, which were tricky from a device with no keypad.

This compared to the roaming-advice SMS telling me that data would cost £0.60/MB [about €0.70]. In other words, roaming data was about 300x overpriced - quite astonishing, in 2018. And the mobile industry wonders why users have such little loyalty and respect.

(It's also worth noting that WiFi was ubiquitous in any hotel, cafe, restaurant or other places that visitors might go. There were telephone cable strung along all the valleys on poles, and decently-fast broadband was common. Given the moutainous topography, you could sometimes get WiFi more readily than cellular).
 

How would eSIM change things?

But this experience got me thinking about how the experience might be different in the coming era of eSIMs and remote-provisioning. Firstly, let's assume that one or both Cape Verdean operators actually had the requisite server-side gear for RSP. And let's assume that my future iPhone either has a multi-profile eSIM capability, or has dual removable/embedded SIM capability. (Remember, I still want to get my normal SMS's from my UK Vodafone number). Potentially, a future WiFi Hotspot could be eSIM-enabled too.

But then the question is, how does the user find out about the available networks, and the available plans on those networks? What's the user journey?

And there are lots of other questions too:

• Would I get a popup alert when I switched my phone on after the flight? 
• Would it give me menus for all the available plans or just a subset? 
• Would I need to have signed up in advance, either with a local CV telco, or perhaps facilitated by Apple, Vodafone or a third party? 
• When and how would I download the new profile? What data would that require me to send back (or what would be collected automatically?). 
• Would it be easier to get an eSIM-capable WiFi device? 
• But would that just be the same global MVNO providers who didn't have a Cape Verde relationship for roaming?
• What happens if something goes wrong, or you need to buy more data? Can local stores give you any help, or top-ups?

Bottom line: this whole experience would likely have been worse with eSIM, not better. And probably more costly too. Maybe in a less unusual country, with MVNOs and better roaming partnerships, it could be much more slick.

But for most "normal" countries, I'll probably stick to the £6/day plan from Vodafone for ease, even if that's 5x overpriced and should really be £1-2/day. It's annoying, but basically the equivalent of  beer, and there's probably other ways I can save money faster when on a trip. That said, now I've got my new WiFi puck, I might switch back to SIMs sometimes though, if they're easy and available at the airport. I'll certainly take it along with me as a Plan B.

New: Workshops on Enterprise Cellular & AI/Blockchain in Telecoms, May 30-31

I'm delighted to announce a new collaboration:

Rethink Research & Disruptive Analysis announce joint workshops on Enterprise Cellular Networks, and AI/Blockchain in Telecoms, London May 30th-31st

At the end of May, two of the leading independent thinkers in telecoms research will jointly be running small-group interactive workshops in London, addressing two of the hottest topics in telecoms technology and business models:

• 30^th May: Private Cellular Networks for Enterprise, IoT and Vertical Markets
• 31^st May: Use-cases and Evolution Paths for AI, Machine Learning and Blockchain Technologies in the Telecoms Sector

Each day will have a maximum of 30 attendees to ensure a high level of discussion and interaction. We expect a diverse mix of service providers, vendors, regulators and other interested parties such as enterprises, investors and developers. 

The sessions will combine presentations, networking opportunities, and small-group interactive discussion. Rethink Research’s Caroline Gabriel, and Disruptive Analysis’ Dean Bubley, will be the leaders and facilitators. Both are well-known industry figures, with many years of broad communications industry analysis – and outspoken views – between them.

The two events will run as separate standalone sessions, but there will be common themes and approach across both, to benefit organisations with an interest in both topics.

Enterprise & Private Cellular Networks, May 30th 

The first day will cover the rising need for businesses of many kinds to control their own, well-managed, wireless connectivity solutions. The growing use of mobile devices and the emergence of the Industrial IoT means that high-quality – often mission-critical – networks are required for new systems and applications.  

These can span both on-premise coverage (eg in a factory, office or hospital) and the wide-area (eg for smart cities or future rail networks). It is unclear that traditional mobile operators can or will be able to satisfy all the requirements for enterprise coverage – or assume legal liability for failures. Some enterprises will want to have full control for reasons of security, or industry-specific needs.

Among the topics to be discussed are:

• Key market drivers: IoT, automation, mobile workers, industry-specific operational and regulatory issues, diffusion of wireless expertise outside of traditional telecoms providers
• Evolution of key enabling technologies such as 5G, network-slicing, SDN, small cells and enterprise-grade IMS cores
• Regulatory/policy issues: spectrum allocation, competition, roaming, repeaters, national infrastructure strategies and broader “Industry 4.0” economic goals
• The shifting roles of MVNOs, MVNEs, neutral hosts and future “slice operators”
• Spectrum-sharing approaches, including unlicensed, light-licensing and CBRS-type models. Also: can WiFi run in licensed bands?
• Numbering and identity: eSIM, multi-IMSI, liberalised MNC codes
• Commercial impacts, new business model opportunities & threats to incumbents
• Vendor dynamics: Existing network equipment vendors, enterprise solution providers, vertical wireless players, managed services companies, new industrial & Internet players (eg GE, Google), implications for BSS/OSS, impact of open-source

(I've covered various of these themes in previous posts and presentations. If you want more detail about some of my thinking, see links here and here. I'll include links to Caroline's thoughts on this in subsequent posts. We will be going into a lot more depth in the workshop itself).

AI & Blockchain in Telecoms, May 31st 

The second day will consider the specific impact on the telecoms sector of two of the hottest new “buzzword” technologies in software: Artificial Intelligence (and its siblings like machine-learning) and Blockchain / Distributed Ledgers. Both have already received more than their fair share of hype: but what are the realistic use-cases and timelines for adoption? What problems do they solve, and what new opportunities do they create? Are they just re-branding exercises for “big data” and “distributed databases” respectively, when applied to telcos?

(I've been covering these areas as part of my "TelcoFuturism" research, including presenting on Blockchain at a recent TMForum event (link) and at Nexterday North last November, plus thinking about various AI intersections with telecom trends such as 5G (link). Caroline has done a large amount of work on AI / Machine Learning).

This day will benefit attendees from the telecoms industry looking at new developments; as well as  those from the AI/blockchain mainstream interested in specific applications in the telco sector. It will include some basic “101” introductions so that delegates from both sides can be sure they’re speaking each others’ language & decode the jargon.

Among the topics to be discussed are:

• Understanding and categorising the types of AI (machine/deep learning, image recognition, natural language etc)
• Introduction to blockchain concepts and the complexities of “trust”
• Review of telecoms industry structure, key trends and important components of network/IT systems
• Where will AI have the largest impacts for telcos? Improving customer insight & experience? Improved network operations & planning? New end-user facing services such as chatbots or contextually-aware communications? B2B, B2C, or B2B2C platforms?
• Mapping the possible use-cases for blockchains in telecoms, and current trials / status of projects – from micro-transactions, to roaming settlement & fraud prevention, data-integrity protection, or smart contracts for NFV systems
• Impact of 5G & IoT for both AI and BC
• Risks and challenges: regulatory, privacy, new competitors?
• Vendor and supplier ecosystems and dynamics: new entrants vs. adoption by established providers

Reserve your place today 

Both workshops will take place at the Westbury Hotel in Mayfair, central London [link]. They will run from 9am-5pm, with plenty of time for networking and interactive discussion. Come prepared to think and talk, as well as listen – these are “lean-forward” days. Coffee and lunch are included.

Fees for attending one day: £795 / US$995 / €930 + UK VAT of 20%

Fees for attending both days: £1395 / US$1750 / €1650 + UK VAT of 20%

Reserve Now: Select Your Choice of Workshop Days

Enterprise Cellular May 30th (inc 20% VAT) £954.00 GBP AI & Blockchain May 31st (inc 20% VAT) £954.00 GBP Both Days 30/31st May (inc 20% VAT) £1,674.00 GBP

Payment can be made either credit card or Paypal, or by invoice / bank transfer: please email me at information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com, for payment-request by email or with purchase-order details. Please also contact me for any more information.

2016 was the first year I didn't buy a SIM card, for at least a decade

I've just realised that I didn't buy a single new SIM card in 2016.

In the past I've often got local SIMs when I've travelled (to avoid roaming charges), or sometimes replaced or got extra ones for the UK, for mobile-broadband dongles or second phones. Quite often I'd buy 5 or more in a year. I think my record was about 10.

But in 2016 I just kept the one Vodafone SIM I've had for quite a while, used on a data-heavy SIM-only plan in an unlocked iPhone.

There's a few reasons for this. The main one is that I use Vodafone's Euro/World Traveller plans, which cost £3 a day in Europe and £5 a day in various other countries. (IIRC, changing EU rules mean I may now be able to get "roam like home" free coverage - I need to check whether I need to change my current plan). 

In particular, for the US I find it pretty good (I'm there about once a month) and while it's more expensive than getting a local pre-pay SIM (T-Mobile used to be $2/day, not sure what it is now), it means I don't have to faff around with swapping over, plus I can call/SMS on my usual number & don't need to revalidate WhatsApp, iMessage and various others that also link to numbers. Put simply, £5/day is a bit of a rip-off (£2-3 would be fairer), but when I'm travelling I have other expenses that are higher on my list. It's the equivalent of a beer a day - although it gets expensive if you start to spend 50 or 100 days a year in a given country.

In theory, I could get one of the "roaming SIMs" from Truphone or 100 other sources. Or I could buy or rent a WiFi-hotspot type thing and use that. But it means more to carry/charge, and for the places I (mostly) go, it's just not that necessary. I don't need local numbers either (I hardly ever phone/SMS the country I'm visiting) so multi-IMSI isn't a big deal for me either.

The other main reason for not buying an SIMs is the countries I visited last year. Mostly it's been Europe and the US for work, plus South Africa, Israel - and Central America on my vacation recently. The VF plan has either covered them, or else (eg Nicaragua & Roatan in Honduras) there's been enough WiFi everywhere I needed to use the phone, plus offline maps. I haven't been elsewhere in SE Asia or MidEast, where I'd normally need cellular coverage. A week off-grid in the desert at AfrikaBurn in April proved that I don't *really* need to be connected 24x7, even though most of my friends think I'm glued to my phone.

And the last reason is that I haven't been tempted by any other cellular devices. I don't need a 4G-enabled tablet or PC. My FitBit works fine with Bluetooth. I don't drive or need/want a "connected car". I have no IoT devices at home, and wouldn't have cellular-connected ones even if I did.

Maybe 2017 will be different - I'm planning an Asia trip or two, and perhaps I'll be vacationing in places that are less WiFi-connected. I might churn from Vodafone if another UK operator has better coverage, roaming or other temptations. But it was really notable that on my recent trip, I didn't even bother going into a Nicaraguan mobile store to check SIM availability and price. Maybe if I was there on business, or for an extended period, I would have done so - I even had a spare phone I could have used as a WiFi tether.

Friend & fellow road-warrior Andy Abramson also mentions not buying SIMs in his latest blog (link), but that's more driven by Google Fi and Gigsky.  

All this has some interesting implications for eSIM - a topic I've looked at extensively over the past year & published a report on (link). 

Would an eSIM-powered iPhone make a big difference to me? Well, firstly it would need to be supported by VF UK, on the same SIM-only plan I use today with a removable, pre-provisioned card. And it would need to come with some sort of option for local data in the US & assorted other countries for £2-3 per day, while neatly re-routing my UK number calls/SMS and allow apps like WhatsApp to re-authorise or just continue unaffected. Given iMessage's occasional glitches when friends port or change numbers, I'd be wary anyway.

What about an eSIM-capable companion device like a WiFi hotspot or tablet? Maybe a hotspot, if I have to travel to random places which still have stupidly-priced roaming, or not much WiFi. But it would have to be very cheap, and very simple. Cellular tablet? Nope.

I can't really see myself getting an eSIM-powered car or other IoT gadget this year, either - although I may find myself renting one I guess.

In other words, unless my travel patterns in 2017 are very different to 2016, I can't see myself buying more than 2 or 3 SIMs, and it may well be zero again. If I do, I'll probably get them at airports with very little hassle, so "remote provisioning" won't be a huge boon to me personally. I continue to think that eSIM is going to be a slow-burn evolution and won't be a big deal for the mobile industry one way or another.

2017 Predictions and Anti-Predictions

I am tempted just to repost last year's "10 Awful Tech-Industry Terms to Stop Using in 2016" (link) with just a revised date... it's all still accurate - and as I recently said in an interview, anyone still using words like "digital", "OTT" or "seamless" in the telecoms industry should be fired for gross ignorance & incompetence.

But there's such a lot of interesting stuff going on at the moment - and a lot of hype as well - that I decided it was worth doing a proper post on predictions, and also (in many ways more fun) anti-predictions. 

(Note: This is an edited/tidied-up version of my original post from December 21st)

I reckon that anti-forecasting - predicting what won't happen despite a "consensus", is massively underestimated in value in the telecom industry, because nobody (especially marketers) likes a negative story. My first anti-prediction is that, sadly, this won't change in 2017, and we'll be back here again in 12 months grudgingly acknowledging that we got things wrong again, and believed too much hype and spin.

As clients and regular readers/followers probably realise, I cover quite a broad spectrum of areas - from future voice / video / WebRTC / messaging applications and platforms, to 5G / NFV / WiFi / LPWAN networks - and also a smattering of cool new "telecom futurism" stuff such as blockchain and AI. I could try to structure this post into "buckets", but actually they all interconnect in complex ways, so I'm blending them all together deliberately - and also not separating the positive and negative predictions. 

So, in no particular order: 



AI gets everywhere. This is the big one. I generally don't go to big trade events like MWC or CES any more (not a good use of my time), but I'm willing to bet that both of them have a proliferation of AI, machine learning, deep-learning, speech/image recognition & associated analytical techniques as top themes. As well as headline use-cases like self-driving cars, I think what's going to be the real story for the telecoms industry is the operational uses in network management / planning, BSS/OSS, management of NFV & SDN, customer care, fraud management and more. For example, using pattern recognition to spot abnormal behaviour in network elements to indicate impending failure (hardware or software). What's going to be interesting is seeing who's had the foresight - or good luck - to have been collecting the right types of datasets to train the algorithms. Certainly, any new systems and services being implemented - or partnerships/deals being struck - should have a strong component of both "instrumentation" to collect data, and a strategy/team in place to analyse it properly. (See also my recent post on 5G vs AI - link)


5G IoT hype gets punctured. I'm a bit saddened at the moment by aspects of 5G. There has been a genuine - and laudable - attempt by the telecom industry to understand "verticals" and various use-cases upfront, in defining 5G. The problem has been the focus on the "sci-fi" scenarios - unsurprising as multiple industries look at each others' predictions and say "wow!". Everyone is getting distracted by the wildest visions, ignoring pragmatism, humdrum issues like legacy systems, and economic/practical bottlenecks in the process. Aided and abetted by governments, industry bodies and consultants trying to "5G-wash" everything in their promised "Digital Society" and "Internet of Everything" nonsense, and egged-on by telcos hoping for cheap spectrum and lax regulations, the 5G/IoT story has got ahead of itself. (At CES in Jan'17, Qualcomm's CEO came up with the most ludicrously hyperbolic prediction - that 5G would rival electricity in importance).

Meanwhile, in the real world, IoT at the low end is being satisfied today using anything from LoRA to WiFi, while 4G-based NB-IoT is "real soon now!" and won't hit the right price points anyway. A 5G variant will be many years away, and is unlikely to get to the $1-3 price needed for mass adoption. At the top end, it's far from clear there's enough latency-critical endpoints to justify the system-wide costs and complexity that will get added. QoS-managed, 1-millisecond latency flying robots sound great, but even if there's a million of them, they'd need a $10k/mo ARPU to offset the other 19.999 billion things that won't need all that extra network intelligence & machinery.

Add in the coverage issue - a lot of IoT will be in-building or on-site, in places that telcos have patchy presence and understanding of, and I think the industry is overselling itself. 5G - as I've written about recently (link) - is mostly going to be about fixed and mobile broadband once more.

Messaging-as-a-Platform disappoints. We've all heard the stories of WeChat embedding commerce and transactions elements. And it seems like Facebook, WhatsApp, and even the perennial no-hope RCS crew are trying to emulate it, plus add in chatbots for good measure. I think it'll fail, except maybe for occasional interactions with businesses you don't care enough about to install a proper app. Nobody is going to switch from a favourite taxi or airline loyalty app to a sub-standard experience inside a messenger. It's easier & makes more sense to put messaging (and voice/video) in the vertical app, than vice versa.


Network re-intermediation: Forget the term "end-to-end". 2017 is going to be about new companies, boxes, platforms and bits of software in the network. We're going to see more "multiplicity", with SD-WAN growing in enterprise, bonding together multiple Internet connections to supplement or replace MPLS. In mobile, we're going to get many new players offering various combinations of multi-IMS or eSIM-based platforms (buy my report! - link) to enable new IoT-SP or MVNO models (although I think they're going to stay very small and niche for the next 2 years). We'll maybe get a smattering of true multi-radio designs too - as seen in Apple's recent patent. In WiFi there's an interesting trend towards cloud platforms (eg Google WiFi for the home, or KodaCloud for small businesses), where multiple access points are intelligently controlled via a remote service that manages deployment, coverage, security and more. All this extra layering is also going to make life harder for the (late-to-market) NFV crowd, as it's going to mean that a user's data flows through multiple paths, and multiple core networks. (see this post of mine - link)


"Fake everything". We're used to hearing about fake news, and Photoshopped images. Expect 2017 to bring even worse things - in particular, fake videos, fake audio recordings, and fake IoT data. There will be a growing need to demonstrate that the images, sounds and other data are indeed genuine. Some of this can be done by "fingerprinting" in various ways, but I think we'll need better ways to demonstrate "data integrity" automatically. I'm increasingly swayed that blockchains and distributed ledgers might be part of the answer.


RCS - still dead. We're now on the 7th or 8th sequel to the zombie movie, and the producers still think they can find a blockbuster, even though everyone else just watches out of amusement at the hammy acting and cliched ending. Google's involvement via the acquisition of Jibe, and subsequent attempt to cajole RCS into being some telco/Internet alternative to Apple iMessage or "SMS updated" is a dead duck. I'm sure there will be some announcements at MWC, but I bet they don't quote any MAUs & DAUs (for *proper* use, not just as an SMS client). There's vague talk of repurposing it for MaaP, but nothing to attract developers or users. I'm seeing signs that the next attempt by the industry to force RCS into the market might be as a part of next-gen European emergency NG112 standards, as a platform for what's called "content-rich emergency calling". Given that Twitter, WhatsApp and other services are widely used to send pictures or video of emergencies, I can't see that one succeeding either.


Private Cellular is going to start to move higher up the vendor and regulatory agenda. I wrote about spectrum-sharing and IoT recently (link) but that is only part of the story. Many other factors are making enterprise or government cellular more plausible - small cells, cloud/NFV core networks, open-source elements, eSIM, wider availability of skilled people, MuLTEfire, moves to issue MNC (mobile network codes) to non-telcos, enterprise/scalable IMS platforms and so on. This isn't going to happen overnight, but the signs are coalescing - and even bits of government is noting, such as the UK National Infrastructure Commission report from December (link), which called for private networks in businesses and universities (see screenshot below).

LPWAN lift-off While some use-cases for IoT will definitely need (or at least prefer) managed spectrum and and networks, there are many others that will be happy with unlicensed and little/no cost connections, as demonstrated with WiFi and Bluetooth, and even USB. National and city networks are emerging, with some local technology / government organisations like the UK's Digital Catapult even allowing free use for low-scale developers (link). I expect we will see more integrated solutions for agriculture, city-management, non-critical transportation systems and more, where the connectivity is just baked in, perhaps without a subscription requirement for a formal "service". I view it as being a bit like electricity - we all need mains power, provided as a service, but we can also get our own batteries, generators or solar cells. (Or, at large scale like airports, even build our own power stations). NB-IoT should helpfully bring more telcos into play, but only for some sub-sectors that can bear the cost (and the wait) for a service-type model.


(Dis)unified Comms-as-a-service proliferates. The enterprise world for voice, video and messaging defies neat trends, beyond a continued shift away from old PBXs and towards the cloud. Microsoft Office 365 is clearly a huge driver, but so are SP-based UCaaS from 8x8, Vonage, RingCentral and hundreds of others. Some are homegrown systems, some based on BroadSoft or other platforms. New work stream-style offers like Cisco Spark, Unify Circuit and others are growing, whilst others are looking more at social/messaging approaches from Slack, Facebook (see my recent post - link) and numerous others. Meanwhile a host of contact centre and sales force platforms are integrating all sorts of communication functions (and bots) and many clever, well-designed conferencing solutions abound. In other words, it's a bit of a mess - partly because of mobile apps and WebRTC "democratising" some of the hard stuff, along with numerous open-source components. There are industry-specific vertical solutions like Symphony [a client I recently wrote a  paper for - link] that can claim differentiated roles as well. I don't expect 2017 to bring any more clarity - indeed, we will probably see even more "disunification" of both the vendor side and actual user behaviour. (Worth noting that Enterprise Connect is one of the bigger events that I still consider worth attending). 

Telcos have some decent opportunities in enterprise, both generally and in verticals. However, the enterprise unit needs to exercise increased autonomy from the core operations and network groups, except where clearly synergistic, eg maybe NFV-powered NaaS connectivity. It needs to be able to partner rapidly, adopt 3rd-party solutions, and not be "religious" about specific technologies or standards if the market dictates otherwise. There is very little synergy between UCaaS and IMS, for instance - as Mitel has learnt to its cost with its failed acquisition of Mavenir & subsequent spinoff. In future, expect a much greater need for vertical customisation, professional-services driven engagements, cloud partnerships (including Amazon, Google, Facebook, Salesforce et al) and a focus on solutions rather than minutes/trunks. There are some interesting opportunities for wholesalers and other intermediaries too. Fragmentation = purpose-specific solutions. 2017 will need to be the year that "unified" and "disunified" get embraced as distinct trends.


Blockchain: The telecom industry has been a bit of a laggard with blockchain and distributed-ledger technologies in 2016, but that should be remedied in 2017 as there is a fair amount going on below the surface. Various vendors and operators are looking at trials, or niche use-cases. I'll have more to say on this in Jan/Feb, but I'm expecting traction in data-integrity protection, use in telcos' vertical projects in eGovernment, some aspects of NFV and authentication/identity, as well as micropayments. (See my presentation from IIT RTC on Blockchain & Telecoms here - link)


NFV realism: 2017 is going to bring a set of realisations - similar to those in 5G - that NFV and network-slicing is not going to "fix world hunger". Grandiose projects aiming to transform telcos' overall service creation, deployment, control and billing will be seen as over-ambitious and fragile. More effort will go into smaller islands of virtualisation, whether for dedicated IoT core networks, particular services/functions (eg vEPC, vIMS), particular network elements' scalability & assorted others. Over time these islands will get glued together - messy and inelegant, but more viable than huge projects that risk collapse under their own weight. Lack of skilled staff is a major bottleneck that will only be partly fixed in 2017. Network slicing will be recast as an internal tool for multiple telco units on the same transport - not a customer-facing one where an IoT provider can get its own custom slice. It'll still get hyped at MWC though, but it's not the, er, best thing since sliced bread. (My post on slicing vs. hacking - link)


Regulation: I'll be honest - it's still anyone's guess what Trump means for the FCC. It's notable he's had a meeting of tech co's - but not a similar round table of telcos. I suspect that Net Neutrality will still have legs, and lawyers will still make most of the money in that area rather than vendors or operators. In the EU there is a battle shaping up between the Commission and BEREC the regulator's group about national vs. EU rules, especially on neutrality and spectrum, and how much is defined at each level. BEREC's implementation guidelines on Neutrality were seen as quite strong. Meanwhile, various aspects of the "Digital Single Market" plans are rumbling on - some good, some bad, and some window-dressing. The "Community WiFI" initiative is in the last category & is destined for failure or irrelevance - although it might take until 2018 for the wheels to fall off. Elsewhere, there are some trends to liberalisation in spectrum management and numbering - unlike most industries, telecom regulation tends to be a battle between two or three distinct groups of big players (old telcos, Internet, governments) which all have divergent/convergent interests. I'll be doing a lot more on policy stuff in 2017.


Universal Basic Income (UBI) hype
As well as my "day job" as a telecom/Internet analyst, I'm also involved in more general futurism and some aspects of policy. The last 6 months has seen a huge surge of interest in "technological unemployment" because of automation and AI, and the potential to use some form of UBI or negative income-tax to offset the predicated millions of lost jobs. Many researchers and authors have opined on this (I recommend Calum Chace's book - link). However, I am less pessimistic, especially on a 10-year view. I think tasks will get automated, but even where whole jobs get replaced, there is plenty of work to do, although re-skilling will be an issue. As for UBI, I think it's interesting and it's good that proper trials are going on in Finland and elsewhere. But I have serious doubts about its affordability and practicality. I also think that ageing and retirement may impact the workforce more than robots - many domains *need* automation to cover a shortfall of people. I think will governments will need to better support those impacted by AI or automation, but I'm unconvinced that the universal/unconditional aspects of UBI are the best approach. It's all very well saying people shouldn't need to work - but somebody has to pay for them not to, so it makes sense to be efficient about it. (AI should make administering more complex schemes much cheaper and easier, anyway). I think 2017 will see a continuing of UBI hype, but also some much-needed sover pragmatism. (I recently spoke on this at a London Futurists' / Transpolitica conference - link)


Random rants: Things I'd like to kill off in 2017 
- Conference apps. Just have a mobile website & email a PDF agenda. I don't want a personalised, privacy-invading "engagement" platform
- Link-hijacking and spam-blog social aggregation services like link.is, Crowdfire & paper.li. Just use "raw" links please!
- Survey / feedback spam. I'm getting deeply fed up with multiple "rate my X" messages and emails. Travel companies are some of the worst - Expedia sends up to 3 spam emails for each booking. Let's shame them online with the #surveyspam hashtag
- Automated social-media tools which send "Welcome" introduction messages on Twitter, add you to irrelevant lists and so on. Do it manually or risk getting blocked. 


I look forward to debating any or all of these with people in person at various events in 2017, or online either in the comments, on Twitter or LinkedIn. If you're looking for a keynote speaker, or internal advisory project in these areas, then please get in touch via information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com. Also, I run the Future of the Network research programme for STL Partners, so if you're interested in my detailed reports on 5G, NFV, spectrum, LPWAN and so on, please check this link for details.