Industrial 5G networks will mostly be discrete and isolated

A key argument cited for telcos having a central role in industrial / vertical #5G networks is "service continuity". Devices and users can connect both on-premise and in the wide area, because both are enabled by the same operator. An MNO can thus best provide on-premise connectivity as an extension, or slice, of its normal national cellular network.

MNOs and industry groups often assert this to dissuade governments and regulators from assigning local spectrum licences directly to businesses.

This argument doesn't stack up, for several reasons.

On a recent virtual event I moderated for Nigel Yeates Juliet #5grealised the speaker from Three. Business pointed out that its customers' private 4G/5G networks were generally isolated, not part of 3's macro network. They even use different spectrum. They can do roaming, but it's not a priority.

A central point is that most connected IoT and automation systems don't move outside the facility. Industrial robots don't go for a walk to the shops. What does move are vehicles, personal devices and shipped electronic goods.

Yet here, having local & wide area coverage from the same MNO is of minimal use. Guests, contractors and employees have devices on *all* networks, not just that of the on-prem network operator.

So some sort of roaming or neutral-host arrangement would be needed. And those capabilities could be also be offered a new specialised provider, as well as by an incumbent MNO.

In fact, it might be easier (and quicker) for a genuinely neutral wholesale player to offer that capability, rather than one MNO trying to negotiate a site-specific roaming or interconnect deal with all its rivals.

Another reason is eSIM and dual-SIM. Devices can have separate profiles for on-premise and wide-area subscriptions, and just switch from one to the other when they're off-site. This is an increasingly common feature in smartphones and vehicles.

In fact, private cellular networks don't even need SIMs - 5G allows the use of other identifiers such as enterprise security credentials, or even the new Wi-Fi OpenRoaming model.

At a radio level, there are distinct advantages to running private networks in isolated fashion, in separate spectrum. They can use different configurations to the macro environment, perhaps optimised for a different mix of up- and downlink in TDD spectrum.

And lastly, it is much easier to treat a private network as private, rather than some unusual public/private hybrid. The legal situations and liabilities are clearer. SLAs can be described and enforced in contracts. There doesn't have to be alignment in deployment speeds or priorities. Different vendors can be chosen.

This doesn't mean that MNOs don't have a role in such private enterprise networks - but it's likely to be done by a separate business unit that can engineer solutions specifically for verticals, thinking about the customer first. It won't be done by the main "mothership" network group, desperate to find "5G use cases" and crowbar-ing its main network (and also its #networkslicing and #edgecomputing platform) into unsuitable applications.

That MNO enterprise business unit might decide the macro RAN is suitable for a given client. Or it may choose to build its own network locally, with the enterprise owning the spectrum license. Or it might work with 3rd parties - or use WiFi instead. I'm expecting MNOs to acquire lots of vertical-specialist integrators and network installation firms in some industries like manufacturing, ports, mining and healthcare.

Maybe over time they'll add value and revenue to the central 5G network business, or act as channels for its #URLLC and MEC businesses. But that won't be their only offering - just one of a portfolio of options.

More generally, all of this points to private 4G/5G networks - especially in industrial sectors and areas such as ports and mining - being based on discrete, isolated deployments. There may be involvement by a national MNO in its deployment or operation (or spectrum licensing), but the network usually won't be part of an MNO's main infrastructure. There might be service continuity - but there's many ways to offer that, and it usually won't be in the top 10 priorities considered.

I definitely think that the roaming approach and neutral-host model offer many opportunities connected to private cellular too. There's some interesting angles relating to Open RAN here as well. Unfortunately, many of the verticals holding most appeal - hotels, airports, stadiums, office complexes - have obvious problems for the next year or so, given the pandemic and ensuing recesssion.

I'll be exploring these issues at a couple of different upcoming events.

Firstly, on July 7th, I'm running my next private workshop on Neutral Host Networks with Peter Curnow-Ford. It's now switched to a virtual event, over morning and afternoon sessions - plus a networking event (a virtual "pub" with special entertainment) in the evening. The broad outline is the same as first announced (link here) with more detailed updated agenda and format in the next couple of days. It will remain as a private, off-the-record event under the Chatham House Rule.

Also on August 20th, I'm doing another #5GRealised session with Juliet Media, specifically on the role of telcos in private networks. Details are here

As always, this theme and broader area is one I also advise on privately. Please drop me a message if you have specific needs for consulting or insight.

#5G #NeutralHost #Verticals #PrivateLTE #Private5G

3rd Neutral Host Workshop + OpenRAN for shared networks. Early bird still available

NOTE: Owing to uncertainty around the impact of Coronavirus on travel, event attendance, company policies & venues, this workshop has been postponed from 31st March until 7th July. We have contacted existing registered attendees to discuss the options

On March 31st  July 7th I'll be running my 3rd public workshop on Neutral Host Networks in central London, together with colleague Peter Curnow-Ford.

As well as covering the basics of new wholesale/sharing models for MNOs, both with and without dedicated spectrum, we will also be looking more closely at the fit between NHNs and new virtualised vRAN / OpenRAN technologies. 

We'll cover all the various use-cases: metro-area network densification, indoor systems for various venues, road/rail coverage, rural wholesale models, FWA and more. 

The links (and differences) between neutral-host and private LTE/5G will be discussed, as well as alternative models such as multi-MNO sharing or national roaming. (see this post for some previous thoughts on this)

Different countries' competitive, regulatory and spectrum positions will be covered, to assess how that will impact the evolution of NHNs. 
 
Early bird pricing is available before June 7th.

Full details and registration are available here

Thoughts on roaming, local SIM cards and eSIMs

I spend a large part of my life travelling, both for work and leisure. But while I find connectivity to be hugely important, I refuse to pay ludicrous per-MB data roaming prices.

So until a couple of years ago, this meant that I had a large collection of (mostly non-functioning) local mobile SIM cards I'd bought in various countries. Typically, I'd use them in a spare phone, so I could keep me normal phone on my home SIM to get inbound SMS or missed voice-call notifications. I'd also often use the second phone as a WiFi tether for my primary iPhone.

At one point I found old SIMs from the US, Singapore, Mozambique, Vanuatu, UAE and Australia in my wallet. In some places it was easy to get local SIMs, while in others it involved cumbersome registration with a passport or other documents. Places like India and Japan were a real pain, and I just didn't bother, relying on WiFi & an occasional extortionate SMS.

That has changed in recent years - and there are now multiple options for travellers:

• Local SIMs are often easier to obtain. Booths at airports are well-practised at registering documents, sorting APN setting and so on, in a couple of minutes
• In the EU, roaming prices have fallen progressively to zero - often including non-EU European countries as well. Various other groups of countries or regional operator groups have also created free-roaming zones.
• Some operators offer customers flat-rate or even free roaming to other countries, such as T-Mobile US's free (but 2G-only) international data, or $5/day for capped LTE (link). I use Vodafone UK's £6/day "roam further" plan quite a lot, especially when visiting the US (link).
• Many travellers can get dual-SIM phones, so they can easily switch between home and local SIMs without fiddling about with trays & pins. (There's no dual-SIM iPhone though. Grrrr. More on this later). 
• Various companies (eg Truphone) offer global/roaming SIMs, and have hoped that frequent travellers would use these as their primary/only SIM. The problem with this is that they typically rely on MVNO relationships in each country, including the user's home market - which often means poorer data plans than can be bought domestically from the main MNOs. You also don't get to benefit from multi-play plans, bundled content and so forth. I'm also not entirely convinced that MVNO traffic always gets as well-treated as the host MNO's own customer data - and that's likely to get worse with 5G and network-slicing.
• Some providers pitch global SIMs alongside rented/bought portable WiFI hotspots, such as TEP Wireless (link). The problem is that these often just cover the same countries as the better roaming plans from normal mobile operators. 

So... in July I went on holiday to the Cape Verde islands, off the coast of West Africa. Beautiful archipelago of 9 inhabited islands, with beaches, mountains, volcanoes, hiking trails and small villages nested in sheer-sided valleys. Neither Vodafone nor any of the travel-SIM companies seemed to cover either of its two main networks. So I went and bought an unlocked WiFi hotspot (from TP-Link), and hoped to get a local SIM on arrival, as I'd read a few suggestions it was possible.

It wasn't just possible, but remarkably easy. Walking through the arrivals door from customs at the airport, I was handed a free SIM by a representative of one of the operators (Unitel) within seconds. When I unwrapped it later in the day, I found it had 200MB of data included for free. No registration needed, no upfront payment, nothing. 3G network only, but that was fine to assure myself it worked OK. The next day I found a branded store & decided to stick with that network rather than check the other one (good marketing / customer acquisition strategy!) as the price-plans seemed fine. 

I paid €12 for 5GB of data, valid for a month. There was also a 7GB and maybe a 10 or 12GB one, but I wasn't planning on streaming video. In other words, €1 a day with about 500MB available per day, for normal mobile usage during my 11-day visit. The helpful lady in the shop sorted it all out for me, including temporarily switching my new SIM into her phone to send the setup / dataplan-purchase messages, which were tricky from a device with no keypad.

This compared to the roaming-advice SMS telling me that data would cost £0.60/MB [about €0.70]. In other words, roaming data was about 300x overpriced - quite astonishing, in 2018. And the mobile industry wonders why users have such little loyalty and respect.

(It's also worth noting that WiFi was ubiquitous in any hotel, cafe, restaurant or other places that visitors might go. There were telephone cable strung along all the valleys on poles, and decently-fast broadband was common. Given the moutainous topography, you could sometimes get WiFi more readily than cellular).
 

How would eSIM change things?

But this experience got me thinking about how the experience might be different in the coming era of eSIMs and remote-provisioning. Firstly, let's assume that one or both Cape Verdean operators actually had the requisite server-side gear for RSP. And let's assume that my future iPhone either has a multi-profile eSIM capability, or has dual removable/embedded SIM capability. (Remember, I still want to get my normal SMS's from my UK Vodafone number). Potentially, a future WiFi Hotspot could be eSIM-enabled too.

But then the question is, how does the user find out about the available networks, and the available plans on those networks? What's the user journey?

And there are lots of other questions too:

• Would I get a popup alert when I switched my phone on after the flight? 
• Would it give me menus for all the available plans or just a subset? 
• Would I need to have signed up in advance, either with a local CV telco, or perhaps facilitated by Apple, Vodafone or a third party? 
• When and how would I download the new profile? What data would that require me to send back (or what would be collected automatically?). 
• Would it be easier to get an eSIM-capable WiFi device? 
• But would that just be the same global MVNO providers who didn't have a Cape Verde relationship for roaming?
• What happens if something goes wrong, or you need to buy more data? Can local stores give you any help, or top-ups?

Bottom line: this whole experience would likely have been worse with eSIM, not better. And probably more costly too. Maybe in a less unusual country, with MVNOs and better roaming partnerships, it could be much more slick.

But for most "normal" countries, I'll probably stick to the £6/day plan from Vodafone for ease, even if that's 5x overpriced and should really be £1-2/day. It's annoying, but basically the equivalent of  beer, and there's probably other ways I can save money faster when on a trip. That said, now I've got my new WiFi puck, I might switch back to SIMs sometimes though, if they're easy and available at the airport. I'll certainly take it along with me as a Plan B.

Update: Telecom & Network Cryptocurrencies, Tokens & ICOs

Introduction

Back in August I wrote a post on blockchain-based ICOs and tokens/coins for the telecoms space (link). Quite a lot has happened since then - including a huge boom in Bitcoin and "AltCoin" valuations and public awareness - so I thought an update was useful. 

In a nutshell - there's a growing number of telecom/networking "coins" available, with a wide variety of concepts, team backgrounds and business models. Some are very interesting, but some others are... let's say, "ambitious".  And a few look like utter nonsense, seemingly lacking understanding of the relevant technology or marketplace dynamics. It's possible there's a couple of outright scams as well.

I'm not making recommendations, or giving warnings, about specific tokens here. But in the spirit of "caveat emptor", I also give a list of cautions and possible problems, that investors should think about, or ask the various currencies' teams. Telecoms is a lot more complex than many people think - especially  the "behind the scenes" bits of technology.

 
Note: If you've found this post via an ICO/cryptocurrency site, an introduction: I'm primarily a mobile and telecoms analyst. I advise on technology and business-model trends for networks and communications, eg 5G, IoT systems, Wi-Fi, voice & video & UC, regulatory policy, the future role of carriers/CSPs, and the impact of "futures" innovations like AI / ML, blockchains (public & private), quantum computing and drones on telecoms. Most of my clients are telcos or network equipment/software vendors. I'm not a fintech, crypto or blockchain generalist - I look at blockchains & tokens where they intersect with the telecom world. Please get in touch if you are interested in my research & advisory work, or if you are looking for a keynote speaker or moderator.


What's been happening with telecom cryptocurrencies?

I'm not going to repeat my previous posts on ICOs, tokens and the wider telecom blockchain space. You can read blog posts here and here, or download a full white paper I wrote for Juniper Networks, here and listen to an associated webinar here.

The second half of 2017 saw continued emphasis on private blockchain use-cases for telecoms and networks, although despite a few high-ish profile initiatives and press releases, there's not much in the "real world" yet besides pilots. I've been doing some interesting consulting work in this area, though - 2018 should throw up a lot more news.

But there has been far more noise - albeit often superficial - about public blockchain and token technologies. Few major telcos have (publicly) announced involvement, but there's growing attention from the type of smaller, competitive types of service provider. Think tier 2/3 MVNOs, travel-SIM providers, VoIP companies, messenger & mobile advertising providers and so on, rather than big carriers. [Telenor is working with a content-oriented token provider - link]

Obviously, that fits against a wider background of interest and investment in cryptocurrencies. Whether we're witnessing the birth of a new financial/transactional system, or a possible bubble, I'll leave for others to debate. To me, it looks a bit like 1995 - lots of innovative web companies, but also a lot of ridiculous concepts, with valuations to match. Which are the Amazons of the future - or the Altavistas, or the pets.com's - I'll leave to others to work out.

There has also been a corresponding rise in regulatory concern, and growing focus on so-called "utility tokens", where in theory a given coin isn't just a store of value or a payment mechanism, but has some underlying property that makes it of broader use to consumers or businesses. Typically this means that some other capability can be "tokenised" - which could be anything from property to an artist's work, and used within that business activity. 

Incidentally - one interesting comms-related trend that's appeared recently is the use of Telegram* (and some other group-messaging apps) as a mobile-friendly and anonymous/encrypted discussion & announcement forum for cryptocurrency teams. Many of the tokens use Telegram as an addition to public (often spam-infested) chat on Twitter, and private internal Slack channels, plus assorted blogging and forum tools. I haven't seen any with an RCS messenger link, obviously.

*EDIT: Telegram has just announced its *own* ICO plans, literally hours after I posted this. Details here (link)


What telecoms/networking tokens are available?

A growing number of tokens relate to things which look "telecoms-like" - whether that's data connectivity provided via cellular or WiFi, SMS or instant-messenger functions, voice-call minutes, SIM identities or something else similar. 

Some are trying to resell existing users' quotas or attention or connectivity, while others are trying to build new hardware platforms. Some are trying to create meshes or secure peer-to-peer connectivity, while others are looking to be wholesale marketplaces for service providers to offer smart-contracts to consumers (or other SPs).

(There's also another huge set of tokens for IoT-related functions and applications, but I'll consider those another time). 

Note: I'm using token, coin, cryptocurrency, altcoin etc interchangeably. Various people will assert differences vigorously, but it's not something that is relevant here.

Note 2: This is being written on 7th January 2018, so dates / funding & issuance status are accurate as of today, but obviously changing at a rapid pace.

Note 3: I am NOT making any recommendations by mentions here. Various ICOs and tokens have been of questionable quality, valuations are volatile & sometimes ridiculous, and some are rumoured to be outright scams. Be extremely careful.

Note 4: I've probably missed some out. Get in touch if you want to tell me about your telecom/network coin, or give me a detailed briefing on the ones below.

• Airfox, Airtoken $AIR (link): Attempts to draw a link between mobile prepay credits, advertising, user-data and potentially micro-loans in future. It extends the current model of gifting or sending "recharges" to many international mobile operators' prepay customers, by shifting from normal payments to a cryptocurrency bought in a marketplace or earned by viewing ads. 
• Althea (link): Aiming to build a network of WiFi and other wireless networks, underpinned by cryptocurrency micropayments and incentives. Recently decided against an ICO, in favour of being "cryptocurrency neutral" - see blog here
• Ammbr [DISCLOSURE: I am an advisor], Ammbr, $AMR (link). Private investor funded, but tokens being listed on exchanges soon. Developing a hardware mesh networking system [Wi-Fi & other technologies], linked to blockchain-based micropayment and self-sovereign identity platform. Aiming first at locations with "unconnected" or poorly-connected communities, but with broader applicability.
• Birdchain, $BIRD (link): Pre-ICO. Developing a messaging app & platform for users to re-sell their SMS allocation for application-to-person messaging 
• Blocknum, $GIGA token (link) Token sale currently occuring. Looking at using the telephone network (PSTN), SIP signalling [used for VoIP] and phone numbers as a basis for a new blockchain for transactions.
• Bubbletone, Universal Mobile Token, $UMT (link). Currently doing pre-sale before ICO. Intending to be a marketplace for MNOs/MVNOs to publish data-plans or content services as smart contracts, with the plans/identities pushed down to users via multi-IMSI SIM cards, or as eSIM profiles. Aims to remove premiums for roaming. 
• Crypvisr, $CVN (link): ICO in 2017, listing on exchanges due soon. Encrypted messaging/communications platform, aimed at both consumers and enterprises.
• DENT Wireless Dent-coin, $DNT (link). Platform for mobile data plan & allowance purchase and sale. Aiming to remove roaming fees. Early app version is live.
• EncryptoTel, $ETT (link): Token-based enterprise "cloud PBX" communications system. 
• Mobilink, Mobi-Coins $MOBI (link). Upcoming ICO. Attempting to create an ad-funded mobile voice and data service, with a custom SIM card and network of MNO/MVNO relationships.  
• Mysterium, $MYST, (link) Decentralised VPN aiming to allow people to share unused network capacity, and use encryption to reduce the risk of intrusive data analytics of Internet usage by ISPs. It's a bit similar to Tor, but more flexible
• Qlink, $QLC (link): Token sale ongoing. Platform for sharing & micropayments for a variety of telco "assets", starting with WiFi access & then aiming for cellular data, SMS and content. Also planning own access points, including LTE-U unlicenced cellular.
• Rightmesh, $MESH (link): Upcoming ICO. Creating an incentivised device-to-device mesh (WiFi, Bluetooth etc). The company operating it (called Left.io) also offers another device-to-device communications/sharing app called Yo.
• Smartmesh, $SMT (link) Tokenised device-to-device mesh based on WiFi, Bluetooth LE etc., starting with smartphones connecting via an incentivised peer-to-peer mechanism.
• SMSChain, $SMSTO, (link): Creating a decentralised SMS gateway for application-to-person text messages. Incentivises users to donate their unused SMS quotas, via a mobile app. Cancelled proposed ICO (link) & may list tokens on exchanges at later date.
• Telcoin, $TEL, (link): Payment/money-transmission token intended to be distributed through existing mobile operators, and aggregators.
• Telegram, Grams: [Added as this emerged shortly after I published this - see link] The messenger app is considering a huge ICO and token sale, which could allow it to embrace payments and money-transfer, and perhaps other applications to become a cryptocurrency-enriched competitor to WeChat and FB Messenger.

What could possibly go wrong? A lot.

A lot of my work as an analyst and consultant involves "stress-testing" ideas and business-plans. Many concepts sound interesting, but face challenges of practicality - whether that's technical, commercial, legal or other. Reading through a lot of the tokens' documentation, or speaking to project teams, I see a lot of aspirations that are going to bang heads against reality.

Some problems can be fixed with time, or clever developers. Others are going to be intractable, and will need workarounds, or completely different strategies.

In this post, I'm not offering opinions or reviews of individual tokens, although I have private opinions on a number of them. A lot of what I read could be best described as "aspirational" - and in some cases, there are many layers of complexity or problems ahead, and I anticipate pivots and revised expectations, as practical issues come to light. Some that I've seen look completely naive or muddle-headed (or even, whisper it, fraudulent).

Some of the issues that could derail the various tokens' opportunity and prospects include:

• Most existing telecom plans (fixed and mobile) have terms and conditions that prohibit resale of "unused capacity" - and are likely to be updated with new token-proof T's & C's if risks are seen.
• Most MVNOs will also have a range of limitations in their contracts, from their host MNOs.
• Security - everything new comes with its own novel risks, even if the blockchain itself is secure. For instance, would you fancy having your 2FA password codes sent via SMS, that transits some random person's phone and app?
• Nobody likes paying for stuff (even micropayments) if it's also available for free via a different path. That means that there will be a lot of arbitrage - for example, it's hard to compete against free WiFi, or against the newer "roam like home" packages.
• Nobody likes paying for stuff in a "currency" that changes in value compared to normal money. I don't want to use some sort of converter to know how many pennies it'll cost for a phone call or Wi-Fi connection.
• There's all sorts of regulatory horribleness around telcos, at national, regional and global levels. Trying to assert "it's all decentralised, we don't need to follow the rules" won't work if it involves licensed spectrum, or messing with legal rules on registering network users' identities, lawful intercept etc.
• Running anything blockchain-related on a smartphone uses power & battery - especially if it needs to keep radio connections active as well. Power-management is always a challenge.
• Traditional telecom networks have complex operational and billing software. While some is too-inflexible and very expensive, most is a necessary evil to deal with performance management, customer service, creating innovative plans, deal with inter-party revenue-sharing and so on. In a decentralised world, how do you query charges, or call when something fails? How can you watch for problems emerging? (And who watches?)
• The hard part of getting data connections working is often "backhaul", linking a base station or WiFi access point to the main Internet, especially from remote areas. It's quite hard to tokenise digging up roads to install fibres.
• Slow deployment of eSIM-capable devices & back-end infrastructure, and willingness of carriers to offer remotely-provisioned "profiles" to third parties.
• Private cellular networks (even in unlicensed / shared spectrum) need core-network software and numerous other "moving parts". Deploying LTE-U isn't like buying a Wi-Fi access point from a store & setting it up.
• A lot of existing consumer Wi-Fi access points are provided by cable operators & broadband telcos, and integrated with a modem/router. Most people won't want to replace them, or daisy-chain a second device, or re-flash the hardware. Business Wi-Fi systems are usually locked-down by IT departments.
• Anything using a mobile app for control, mining, transaction or advertising is at the whim of Apple's AppStore rules, and to a lesser degree Google's. They also need to deal with updates to features in new versions of iOS and Android, which may break things, or compete with them.
• All of the various parallel schemes will need to inter-work with each other at some point, if they're successful.
• Adding extra latency because of extra network hops (or worse, payment negotiations) is going to be a lousy user-experience. 
• The Internet and telecoms are very bi-directional. Do packets (or SMSs or calls) in both directions get charged the same amounts?
• Advertising-funded mobile connectivity has been tried multiple times, and has multiple problems. In particular, you can't insert ads into most apps, and use of encryption/privacy tools like VPNs mean that cookies in mobile browsers may not work properly forever.

There's probably another 20-100 similar "gotchas" out there, applying to some or all of the token concepts. Part of my work is trying to predict these types of problem before they arise, and have an idea of how tractable they are, and what workaround might exist. If you're an innovator in this space, or an investor, and want someone to cast a critical eye over a project, get in touch. (information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com, or on LinkedIn)

Ironically one area that's almost certainly overestimated as a problem is anything to do with Net Neutrality, though. I've covered various examples of such nonsense in prior posts, such as this one (link).

It should be noted that many of these tokens are thinly-traded, or even unlisted on any major cryptocurrency exchanges. Some are pre-ICO / private-funding. Please note that I offer no recommendations on investing in anything, especially cryptocurrencies. Do your own research and use extreme caution if you're tempted. 


Summary

The tokenisation of telecoms and networks is evolving rapidly. It's genuinely fascinating, as are the potential uses of private/permissioned blockchains inside telcos. However, anyone expecting decentralisation to change the networking world in 2018 (or 2019) is going to be disappointed. 

There's lots of enthusiasm, but many roadblocks in the way. Many of the concepts are likely to prove unworkable - and while some projects may raise enough funds through ICOs or private investors to allow them to pivot, others will likely fail. If you're speculating in the short term, that might not matter. But be aware that harsh realities will come along with the new opportunities.

Please get in touch if you'd like to get deeper analysis, or if you're looking for advisory input as a project team or investor (although I'm not able to give investment recommendations).   

2016 was the first year I didn't buy a SIM card, for at least a decade

I've just realised that I didn't buy a single new SIM card in 2016.

In the past I've often got local SIMs when I've travelled (to avoid roaming charges), or sometimes replaced or got extra ones for the UK, for mobile-broadband dongles or second phones. Quite often I'd buy 5 or more in a year. I think my record was about 10.

But in 2016 I just kept the one Vodafone SIM I've had for quite a while, used on a data-heavy SIM-only plan in an unlocked iPhone.

There's a few reasons for this. The main one is that I use Vodafone's Euro/World Traveller plans, which cost £3 a day in Europe and £5 a day in various other countries. (IIRC, changing EU rules mean I may now be able to get "roam like home" free coverage - I need to check whether I need to change my current plan). 

In particular, for the US I find it pretty good (I'm there about once a month) and while it's more expensive than getting a local pre-pay SIM (T-Mobile used to be $2/day, not sure what it is now), it means I don't have to faff around with swapping over, plus I can call/SMS on my usual number & don't need to revalidate WhatsApp, iMessage and various others that also link to numbers. Put simply, £5/day is a bit of a rip-off (£2-3 would be fairer), but when I'm travelling I have other expenses that are higher on my list. It's the equivalent of a beer a day - although it gets expensive if you start to spend 50 or 100 days a year in a given country.

In theory, I could get one of the "roaming SIMs" from Truphone or 100 other sources. Or I could buy or rent a WiFi-hotspot type thing and use that. But it means more to carry/charge, and for the places I (mostly) go, it's just not that necessary. I don't need local numbers either (I hardly ever phone/SMS the country I'm visiting) so multi-IMSI isn't a big deal for me either.

The other main reason for not buying an SIMs is the countries I visited last year. Mostly it's been Europe and the US for work, plus South Africa, Israel - and Central America on my vacation recently. The VF plan has either covered them, or else (eg Nicaragua & Roatan in Honduras) there's been enough WiFi everywhere I needed to use the phone, plus offline maps. I haven't been elsewhere in SE Asia or MidEast, where I'd normally need cellular coverage. A week off-grid in the desert at AfrikaBurn in April proved that I don't *really* need to be connected 24x7, even though most of my friends think I'm glued to my phone.

And the last reason is that I haven't been tempted by any other cellular devices. I don't need a 4G-enabled tablet or PC. My FitBit works fine with Bluetooth. I don't drive or need/want a "connected car". I have no IoT devices at home, and wouldn't have cellular-connected ones even if I did.

Maybe 2017 will be different - I'm planning an Asia trip or two, and perhaps I'll be vacationing in places that are less WiFi-connected. I might churn from Vodafone if another UK operator has better coverage, roaming or other temptations. But it was really notable that on my recent trip, I didn't even bother going into a Nicaraguan mobile store to check SIM availability and price. Maybe if I was there on business, or for an extended period, I would have done so - I even had a spare phone I could have used as a WiFi tether.

Friend & fellow road-warrior Andy Abramson also mentions not buying SIMs in his latest blog (link), but that's more driven by Google Fi and Gigsky.  

All this has some interesting implications for eSIM - a topic I've looked at extensively over the past year & published a report on (link). 

Would an eSIM-powered iPhone make a big difference to me? Well, firstly it would need to be supported by VF UK, on the same SIM-only plan I use today with a removable, pre-provisioned card. And it would need to come with some sort of option for local data in the US & assorted other countries for £2-3 per day, while neatly re-routing my UK number calls/SMS and allow apps like WhatsApp to re-authorise or just continue unaffected. Given iMessage's occasional glitches when friends port or change numbers, I'd be wary anyway.

What about an eSIM-capable companion device like a WiFi hotspot or tablet? Maybe a hotspot, if I have to travel to random places which still have stupidly-priced roaming, or not much WiFi. But it would have to be very cheap, and very simple. Cellular tablet? Nope.

I can't really see myself getting an eSIM-powered car or other IoT gadget this year, either - although I may find myself renting one I guess.

In other words, unless my travel patterns in 2017 are very different to 2016, I can't see myself buying more than 2 or 3 SIMs, and it may well be zero again. If I do, I'll probably get them at airports with very little hassle, so "remote provisioning" won't be a huge boon to me personally. I continue to think that eSIM is going to be a slow-burn evolution and won't be a big deal for the mobile industry one way or another.

Real-world anecdotes on mobile usage: WiFi, Whatsapp, Roaming & Batteries

I just spent a weekend away with a group of friends. We all have smartphones (3 iPhones, 3 Androids), with a diversity of data plans, mostly from the UK but one of us from Denmark. Most of us are non-geeky/non-industry, but fairly heavy users.

It was interesting to watch the different behaviours - especially as we had severe travel disruptions in both directions, owing to power-failures in Amsterdam/Schiphol Airport on Friday, and severe wind/rain on the way back impacting both flights and rail yesterday.

The most obvious phenomena were:

a) Battery life / power availability is critical, especially when travel problems mean you're reliant even more on communications, but have least-easy access to recharging.

b) Roaming & WiFi-usage behaviour are fluid, depending on home operator (& plan) used. LTE roaming actually works properly, most of the time, now.

c) Use of applications/web on mobile while travelling is largely a function of travel experience & frequency. Perhaps unsurprising.

d) Travelling in a group nowadays inevitably means points in the day when you're all in the same place, silent, and on your phones. Especially when you find good coffee & decent WiFi.

The power issue has multiple angles - firstly, surprisingly few people in UK/Europe carry power-banks or cases with long-life batteries. Compared to bits of Asia where they seem ubiquitous, it's very conspicuously different. Separately, the provision of USB-based power (& maybe in future wireless power) in hotels, rental properties, airports, planes, trains etc is lagging a long way behind WiFi. I'm surprised it hasn't proliferated faster. Lastly, as people increasingly have access to 2+ devices (or friends), it would be good to be able to charge from any-to-any efficiently.

The differences that low/flat-rate roaming makes is astonishing. I have a flat £3/day plan from Vodafone (as did a friend) and we became the de-facto navigators and "leaders" as we had connectivity when walking about. The others grudgingly used data-roaming to deal with travel issues and connect to each other via Whatsapp, but were grateful for/horrified by their advice-of-charge texts. We also religiously checked every location - restaurant, bar, apartment, train station, airport - for WiFi & inherently *expect* it to be free. A simple code/password is fine. Notably, even the flatrate data-roaming users still use free WiFi, as we didn't know whether our £3 a day gives us an extra "bucket" (how much? how notified?) or if comes out of our normal monthly plan.

(As an aside - when I've been to non-flatrate countries recently, the "Welcome to Country X" and "You've used £xx of data already" SMS's came 30mins after I arrived, and 60mins after I crossed a threshold. Needs to be instantaneous, or else it's roaming-off + WiFi + local-SIM time again).

In nutshell - at the moment, most operators/plans are still ripoffs for international travellers. Giving users a flatrate & predictable price - about the price of a coffee or beer per day - seems to make a huge difference to both usage & perception. Per-MB pricing is awful for roaming, especially where you have background apps or inbound messages/notifications. Free data-roaming would be even better, but at least at a low level, the price is just another of the travel-related niggling costs like overpriced water or taxis.

(One thing I'd note for airports - it's really frustrating to have to keep going through the WiFi access process in different parts of the venue, because they're treated as different IP subnets or something. Everyone walks for miles in airports, especially Schiphol. If it's unavoidable, it needs to be password-free, just click-n-join).

Whatsapp (or its competing peers) are indispensable. A group of people from the UK & Denmark, meeting in the Netherlands & travelling via France and Belgium are not going to use SMS/MMS+roaming premium to communicate with each other, especially when 3+ have access to WiFi or flatrate data at any point. 

Sidenote: If RCS is to have *any* remote chance of competing, it needs to completely eliminate roaming or international charges beyond data access, allow simple group creation, support iPhones easily, be accesssible via WiFi etc. Will RCS ever be as ubiquitous, as cheap & as usable as Whatsapp for situations like this? Almost certainly not. I'm due to give it another good kicking in an upcoming blog post, so I'll leave that for now.

The TripAdvisor Cities app is loved by everyone & evangelised by me a lot (What's nearby! Reviews! Offline maps!). Various others are worthwhile too, for finding attractions, food, drinks etc. (I like Thrillist, another friend has "Unlike City Guides"). Google Maps rules for logistics but can be a bit variable with local public transport routes & schedules. 

But interestingly, in the unticketed queue for the Rijksmuseum, waiting in the rain, I was the only one to wonder if we could book online & save ourselves an hour's wait. Job done - but that's because I could remember my credit card details & sort it all before we moved and lost our place. I want the ticket PDF or Passbook entry on my screen, please. (I'd never have charged it to my phone bill, or used an NFC terminal, obviously - I'm not *that* weird & geeky).

I also found out that one of my friends gets ripped-off for calling family in the UK Channel Islands because the number ranges are considered "international" and are outside normal inclusive calling plans. That's a complete joke. She didn't realise she could save a ton of cash by using SkypeOut or similar services. It makes me wonder how much of the remaining revenue in telephony is from "the inertia of ignorance". This isn't value-based pricing - it's just hoping customers don't realise their old behaviour should change.
Oh - one other thing - as far as I know, none of used much SMS or *any* phone calls while away. Telephony is now so far past its peak among certain demographics that it's almost an irrelevance except in emergencies or stressful situations (eg my rebooking of a cancelled flight, while walking to the tube station - but I'd have preferred to have it in the frequent-flyer app, rather than via the dialler).