Exasperated rant & myth-busting time.
I actually got asked by a non-tech journalist recently "will 5G change our lives?"
Quick answer: No. Emphatically No.
#5G is Just Another G. It's not a unicorn
Yes,
5G is an important upgrade. But it's also *massively* overhyped by the
mobile industry, by technology vendors, by some in government, and by
many business and technology journalists.
- There is no "race to
5G". That's meaningless geopolitical waffle. Network operators are
commercial organisations and will deploy networks when they see a viable
market, or get cajoled into it by the terms & timing of spectrum
licenses.
- Current 5G is like 4G, but faster & with extra capacity. Useful, but not world-changing.
- Future 5G will mean better industrial systems and certain other cool (but niche) use-cases.
-
Most 5G networks will be very patchy, without ubiquitous coverage,
except for very rudimentary performance. That means 5G-only applications
will be rare - developers will have to assume 4G fallback (& WiFi)
are common, and that dead-spots still exist.
- Lots of things get
called 5G, but actually aren't 5G. It's become a sort of meaningless
buzzword for "cool new wireless stuff", often by people who couldn't
describe the difference between 5G, 4G or a pigeon carrying a message.
-
Anyone who talks about 5G being essential for autonomous cars or remote
surgery is clueless. 5G might get used in connected vehicles
(self-driving or otherwise) if it's available and cheap, but it won't be
essential - not least as it won't work everywhere (see above).
-
Yes, there will be a bit more fixed wireless FWA broadband with 5G. But
no, it's not replacing fibre or cable for normal users, especially in
competitive urban markets. It'll help take FWA from 5% to 10-12% of
global home broadband lines.
- The fact the 5G core is "a
cloud-native service based architecture" doesn't make it world-changing.
It's like raving about a software-defined heating element for your
toaster. Fantastic for internal flexibility. But we expect that of
anything new, really. It doesn't magically turn a mobile network into a
"platform". Nor does it mean it's not Just Another G.
- No,
enterprises are not going to "buy a network slice". The amount of
#SliceWash I'm hearing is astonishing. It's a way to create some
rudimentary virtualised sub-networks in 5G, but it's not a magic
configurator for 100s or 1000s of fine-grained, dynamically-adjusted
different permutations all coexisting in harmony. The delusional vision
is very far removed from the mundane reality.
- The more
interesting stuff in 5G happens in Phase 2/3, when 3GPP Release 16 &
then Release 17 are complete, commercialised & common. R16 has just
been finalised. From 2023-4 onward we should expect some more
massmarket cool stuff, especially for industrial use. Assuming the
economy recovers by then, that is.
- Ultra-reliable low-latency
communications (URLLC) sounds great, but it's unclear there's a business
case except at very localised levels, mostly for private networks.
Actually, UR and LL are two separate things anyway. MNOs aren't going to
be able sell reliability unless they also take legal *liability* if
things go wrong. If the robot's network goes down and it injures a
worker, is the telco CEO going to take the rap in court?
-
Getting high-performance 5G working indoors will be very hard, need
dedicated systems, and will take lots of time, money and trained
engineers. It'll be a decade or longer before it's very common in public
buildings - especially if it has to support mmWave and URLLC. Most
things like AR/VR will just use Wi-Fi. Enterprises may deploy 5G in
factories or airport hangars or mines - but will engineer it very
carefully, examine the ROI - and possibly work with a specialist
provider rather than a telco.
- #mmWave 5G is even more overhyped
than most aspects. Yes, there's tons of spectrum and in certain
circumstances it'll have huge speed and capacity. But it's go short
range and needs line-of-sight. Outdoor-to-indoor coverage will be near
zero. Having your back to a cell-site won't help. It will struggle to go
through double-glazed windows, the shell of a car or train, and maybe
even your bag or pocket. Extenders & repeaters will help, but it's
going to be exceptionally patchy (and need tons of fibre everywhere for
backhaul).
- 5G + #edgecomputing is a not going
to be a big deal. If low-latency connections were that important, we'd
have had localised *fixed* edge computing a decade ago, as most
important enterprise sites connect with fibre. There's almost no FEC, so
MEC seems implausible except for niches. And even there, not much will
happen until there's edge federation & interconnect in place. Also,
most smartphone-type devices will connect to someone else's WiFi between
50-80% of the time, and may have a VPN which means the network "egress"
is a long way from the obvious geographically-proximal edge.
-
Yes, enterprise is more important in 5G. But only for certain uses. A
lot can be done with 4G. "Verticals" is a meaningless term; think about
applications.
- No, it won't displace Wi-Fi. Obviously. I've been through this multiple times.
- No, all laptops won't have 5G. (As with 3G and 4G. Same arguments).
-
No, 5G won't singlehandedly contribute $trillions to GDP. It's a
less-important innovation area than many other things, such as AI,
biotech, cloud, solar and probably quantum computing and nuclear fusion.
So unless you think all of those will generate 10's or 100's of
$trillions, you've got the zeros wrong.
- No, 5G won't fry your
brain, or kill birds, or give you a virus. Conspiracy theorists are as
bad as the hypesters. 5G is neither Devil nor Deity. It's just an
important, but ultimately rather boring, upgrade.
There's probably
a ton more 5G fallacies I've forgotten, and I might edit this with a
few extra ones if they occur to me. Feel free to post comments here, although the majority of debate is on my LinkedIn version of this post (here). This is also the inaugural post for a new LinkedIn newsletter, Most of my stuff is not quite this snarky, but it depends on my mood. I'm @disruptivedean on Twitter so follow me there too.
If
you like my work, and either need a (more sober) business advisory
session or workshop, let me know. I'm also a frequent speaker, panellist
and moderator for real and virtual events.
Just remember: #5GJAG. Just Another G.