Future Spectrum Policy: 10-year Disruptions

Yesterday, I presented & debated on disruptions & directions for spectrum-management, at UK regulator Ofcom's annual spectrum conference in London. The slide-deck (it was just a short 15-minute intro) & my Twitter thread are at the bottom of this post.

I was on a panel with representatives from Google (Simon Saunders, who looks after EMEA connectivity partnerships) & the FCC (Julius Knapp, Chief of Rules & Policy Division)

This was a really fun session, as my remit was to look into the medium-to-far future (10 years or so) and think about some totally new angles on spectrum for upcoming regulatory policy. Often, I throw rocks at things that don’t make sense… This time, it was more like tossing rocks into a pond, and watching the ripples propagate & stimulating ideas.

My previous presentations at Ofcom events have been on more immediate needs on spectrum: sharing models, local cellular, Private LTE, Neutral Host* networks [see comment on upcoming workshop, below] and the need for “network diversity” rather than just enabling a 3GPP 5G monoculture. This was about taking a much longer view.

Some of the topics I covered were:

• Designing spectrum management policy (& future 6G mobile systems) with a direct link to implied energy consumption / CO2 emissions from its usage
• Asking the question “will harmonisation be as important in future as it has been in the past?” given that we’re ever better at creating software abstraction layers, and creating multi-radio / multi-band chips and devices.
• The next stages of dynamic spectrum allocatin: towards fluid spectrum marketplaces, API-led spectrum platforms, and radio resource within broader “Mobile Network-aaS or Satellite Service-aaS” concepts
• Ensuring that spectrum allocations and processes ensure multiple delivery/business models are supported: services, private, amenity networks etc. This contrasts, for example, with existing national licenses for mobile spectrum, which are geared strongly to the MNO business model.
• My new disruptions/distractions framework for realistic assessment of predictions of tech deployment & market evolution (see this post)
• Spectrum releases aimed at more device-to-device & intra-device usage (for example between components on a circuit-board)
• Potential post-Brexit divergence for UK #pectrum policy (we didn’t get a chance to drill into this much)

Overall, it was a really enjoyable session (my Twitter thread is at the end of this post). It might odd to describe a regulatory event on radio spectrum as “fun”, but this panel was certainly lively and wide-ranging. My co-panellists talked about everything from DevOps and just-in-time spectrum availability, to taking the lessons from US CBRS and expanding to other bands or regions.

I'm looking forward to similar events in the UK and other regions, both on spectrum (eg mobile / WiFi / satellite needs) and other regulatory angles on future networks and communications. Please get in touch if you need a speaker or panellist.

*Neutral Host Networks — if this area is of interest, I am running a 2nd London public workshop on Nov 21st, with Peter Curnow-Ford MIoD Details here: https://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/p/2nd-neutral-host-networks-london-public.html And if you’re interested in a private internal session for your own team, please see here: https://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/p/private-workshops.html

Dean Bubley presentation at Ofcom Mapping The Future 2019 Spectrum Conference from Dean Bubley

My Twitter thread for the rest of the event is here.

Kicking off at @Ofcom #mappingthefuture #Spectrum event with outgoing CEO Sharon White

Venue is the beautiful @RGS_IBG building in Kensington pic.twitter.com/w4MSr7mE70

— Dean Bubley (@disruptivedean) September 10, 2019

 

Publications & Upcoming Events

This is an "administrative" post, covering my recent and upcoming publications & events. Please get in touch if you'd like any more details about booking me for speaking/workshops, or for considering published output - information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com.


Events
I speak at, or attend, about 30 public events per year, plus a number of private workshops, executive off-sites and online webinars. Recent notable events have included:

• Keynote on Futurism at Ofcom's spectrum workshop day (link)
• Presenting at TMForum's Action Week (on blockchain - link)
• Keynote on new wireless & spectrum models at WiFi Now in Washington DC (link)
• Chairing Total Telecom's Connected Britain event
• My own workshops, run jointly with Caroline Gabriel, on Enterprise/Private Cellular Networks, and AI + Blockchain for the Telecoms Industry (link)

The next few months are looking pretty hectic for events I'm speaking at, attending or moderating. My schedule always a bit of a work-in-progress, and some things may change a bit, so please get in touch with me if you want to arrange meetings/briefings, or need a speaker for other events. 

• 3 Sep, London, London Futurists: Agenda for the Future (link)
• Presentation: "Anti-Forecasting"
• 4-7 Sep, Shanghai, Huawei Connect (link)
• Attending as an analyst
• 18-19 Sep, Bangkok: PTC Spectrum Futures (link)
• Presentation: "A Futuristic View of Spectrum: Where Are We Going?"
• CBRS Workshop
• 25-27 Sep, Busan, S Korea: ITU Telecom World (link)
• Panel Moderator: Reinventing Telcos
• 3-5 Oct  Orlando, US: Astricon (link)
• Keynote on "What the Future Holds for Asterisk - And What's Overhyped"
• 5 Oct (TBA), Webinar: IBwave (link to follow)
• Presenting on Convergence & Evolution in Indoor Wireless
• 11-12 Oct, Brussels: IICom Annual Conference (link)
• Presenting on "Innovation in connectivity technologies - embracing heterogeneity"
• 23-24 Oct, Phoenix, US: Broadsoft Connections (link)
•  Attending as an analyst
• 25-26 Oct, San Francisco: GE Minds & Machines (link)
• Attending as an analyst
• 31 Oct - 1 Nov, London: Total Telecom Congress (link)
• Speaking "Optimising Spectrum Regulation in the 5G era"
• Chairing Day 2
• 02 Nov, The Hague, Netherlands: WiFi Now Europe (link)
• Keynote + Panel
• 14-15 Nov, Lisbon: TADSummit (link)
• Presenting on Enterprise & Industrial IoT mobile networks
• 28-29 Nov, Bangkok: WiFi Now APAC (link)
• Keynote + Panel
• 30 Nov, London: Great Telco Debate (link)
•  Speaker, topic TBA
• 01 Dec, London DB + CG Private Cellular Workshop #2 (link to follow)
• 1-day workshop on Enterprise / Private mobile networks
• Contact: information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com for details

Publications

For my written output, I work through three main channels:

• This blog and cross-posts on my LinkedIn & Medium. Recent topics have included:
• Blockchain/ICOs (link and link)
• Mobile connection bonding & SD-WAN (link)
• Net Neutrality (link)
• Sensors (link)
• Amazon / Edge-Computing (link)
• Data-over-Sound (link)
• UCaaS (link)
• Spectrum Sharing / Enterprise Cellular (link)
• STL's Future of The Network research stream, which I run as associate director. My own recently-contributed reports include: 
• Facebook's Telecom Infra Project (link)
• Edge Computing (link)
• VoLTE (link)
• 5G Spectrum (link)
• eSIM (link)
• Other reports in the stream written by others have covered 4G in Asia, NFV and other topics. 
• My next reports will look at LPWAN, cRAN/vRAN, and WiFi's strategic implications for Telcos.
• Disruptive Analysis branded reports & papers, which include both open-market reports such as last year's eSIM study (link), and client-commissioned papers - some of which are internal and kept under NDA. Recent public documents include
• Blockchain for Telcos, written for Juniper Networks (link)
• Integrating IoT & Video Comms, written for Dialogic (link)
• Data-over-Sound, written for Chirp (link)
• IoT + Voice/Messaging Comms, written for Metaswitch (link) 
• Upcoming paper on consumer communications privacy

Spectrum-Sharing: Europe & Asia need something like CBRS

The more I look at enterprise mobile, especially its focus on verticals and IoT, the I'm more convinced there needs to be a change in industry structure, regulation and network ownership/operation.  And that means new spectrum policy, as well.

In particular, private licensed-band wireless networks will be essential - that is, networks (using cellular, WiFi, LPWAN or other technology) that can be directly managed by organisations that are not traditional MNOs (mobile network operators), to provide high-QoS, reliable wireless connections. I'm thinking large companies running their own networks, industrial network specialists, local cooperatives, perhaps new government-sector initiatives, and various other aggregators, outsourcers and intermediaries. These will mostly be in-building / on-campus, but some may need to be genuinely wide-area, or even national, as well.

This is in addition to enterprise-centric initiatives in the MVNO/E space, vertical activities by fixed telcos and MNOs, unlicensed-band WiFi and LPWAN deployments and so on.

 There are three main models for licensing radio spectrum today:

• Exclusive licenses: Dedicated access to certain bands is very common today, for example for mobile networks, fixed microwave links, broadcasters, satellite access and many government-sector uses, such as military radios and radar. Particular organisations have rights to solo access to particular frequencies, in a given country/region, subject to complying with various rules on power and so forth.
• Unlicensed: (also license-exempt): Beyond some basic rules on power and antenna siting, some bands are essentially "open to all". The 2.4GHz and 5GHz bands used by technologies such as WiFi, Bluetooth and many other technologies are prime examples, as well as bands used for consumer walkie-talkies and various medical and automotive applications.
• Shared spectrum: This covers various models for allowing multiple users for certain frequencies. It could involve temporary usage (eg for event broadcast), bands that haven't been "cleared" fully and still have incumbent users that newcomers need to "work around". It might be spectrum assigned in geographic chunks, or at low power levels and mandating "polite" protocols so that multiple users can co-exist. We've seen TV "white spaces" where under-used bands are opened up to others, and so forth.

The latter approach of sharing is becoming much more important - despite continued clamour for exclusive licenses, especially from the mobile industry. Given that the demand for spectrum is rising from all sides - mobile, WiFi, utilities, broadcast, satellite, Internet and many others - and each has a different demand profile (global / national / regional and subscription / private / amenity etc), a one-size-fits-all model cannot work, given limited spectrum resources. More spectrum-sharing will be essential.

More models are now emerging for sharing spectrum bands. Depending on the details, these open up opportunities for a greater number of stakeholders. The US' innovative CBRS model (see link) for 3.5GHz is worth examining, and perhaps replicating elsewhere, especially Europe. It is much more sophisticated - but more complex to implement - than the Licensed Shared Access (LSA) that Europe has leaned towards historically. In Disruptive Analysis' view this extra complexity is worthwhile, as it allows a much broader group of stakeholders to access spectrum, fostering greater innovation. 
 
The important differentiator for CBRS is that there are three tiers of users:

• Incumbents, primarily the military, which gets the top level of access rights for radar and other uses in the band
• Licensed access providers which can get dedicated slices in specific geographic areas. These are "protected" but subject to pre-emption by the top tier. They will also generate revenue for the government in terms of license fees - although awards will be for shorter periods than normal bands (3 years is being discussed).
• General access - basically this is like unlicensed access, but it has to work around the other tiers, if they are present.
  

To make all this work, the CBRS system needs databases of who is using what spectrum and where, and sensors to detect any changes in the top tier's usage. (The military, as incumbents, isn't keen on spending any money to actually tell the system what it's doing - it needs to be securely automated).

When all this is up and running, there will be many potential user groups for shared spectrum such as this, using either the priority licenses, or general access tiers:

• Incumbent mobile operators needing more capacity in specific areas
• MVNOs wanting to "offload" some traffic from their host MNO networks, onto their own infrastructure, without the expense of full national coverage. This could work either alongside, or as an alternative to, WiFi-based offload or WiFi-primary models.
• Enterprises wanting to deploy private cellular networks indoors or over large campuses (eg across an airport or oil-refinery for IoT usage)
• Potentially, large-scale WiFi deployments in new bands, with less subject to interference than mainstream unlicensed bands - although this would require devices/chipsets supporting new frequencies that are currently outside the proper WiFi standards.
• Various "neutral host" wholesale LTE models, for example run by city authorities for metropolitan users, or cloud-providers for enterprise - or as a way to provide better indoor coverage for existing incumbent "outdoor" operators, without their needing individual infrastructure in each building. This could allow the pooling of back-end / administrative functions and costs across multiple local LTE networks in shared bands. Imagine an Amazon AWS approach to buying cellular capacity, on-demand.
• Various approaches to roaming or "un-roaming" providers - for example, a theme-park operator or hotel owner could offer its foreign guests "free LTE" while on-site.
• Potential new classes of cellular operator, such as an Industrial Mobile Operator (imagine GE or ABB integrating cellular access into machinery & plant equipment), various IoT platform providers, and integration opportunities with Internet, healthcare, transport and other systems.

This approach may not work for enterprise wireless users requiring national (or very broad-area) coverage, such as utility companies or transport providers. There are separate arguments for utility and rail companies getting slices of dedicated spectrum, or some other model of national sharing.

Importantly, CBRS means that LTE-U variants like MuLTEfire can be used to create private cellular networks. Coupled with cheap, virtualised (& probably cloud-based) core networks, this means that mobile networks are much more accessible to new entrants. The scale economies of national licenses will no longer apply to lock out alternative providers.

In other words, we will see consolidation of national MNOs, but fragmentation of localised MNOs or (PNOs as some are calling private networks). 

While some MNOs and their industry bodies may be concerned at more competition, privately many of them acknowledge that a lot of the use-cases above cannot realistically be offered by today's industry. 

Even large MNOs can probably only pick 2 or 3 verticals to really get deep expertise in - maybe smart cities, or rail, or utilities, say. But they cannot get enough expertise to effectively build customised, small networks in all the possible contexts - car factories, ports, hospitals, mines, hotels, shopping malls, airports, public safety agencies, universities, oil refineries, power stations and so on. Each will have its own requirements, its own industry standards to observe, its own systems to integrate with, its own insurance/liability issues and so on. They need wireless for all sorts of reasons from robots to visitors - but today's MNOs will not be able to satisfy all those needs, especially indoors.

For many governments' visions of future factories, cities and public services, good quality wireless will be essential. But it will need to be provided by many new types of providers, with business models we can only guess at.

While CBRS is still at an early stage, and will be tricky to implement, we need something similar to it - with multiple tiers including a "permissionless" one - in Europe and the rest of the world. Enterprise and private cellular networks (and other licensed-band options for WiFi and LPWAN) are critical - and policymakers and regulators need to acknowledge and support this.



If you are interested in discussing this topic further, I will be running a workshop day on private cellular on May 30th in Central London, in a joint effort with Caroline Gabriel of Rethink Research. Details and booking are here: (link) or else email information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com.

My 2017 Plans: Research, Events & Client Focus

Excuse the narcissism: This blog post is about me. 

It's intended to clarify my current research focus, the ways I engage with clients, events I get involved in, and the other people and companies I work with.

Most of my work falls into 3 broad and overlapping areas:

• Network Technology, Policy & Strategy: Evolution of telecom networks & operator business models. Fixed & mobile infrastructure, 5G, WiFi, LPWAN, NFV/SDN, spectrum policy, net neutrality, SD-WAN, MEC, MVNOs, eSIM, policy, mobile broadband, OSS/BSS and so on. (I don't do much on photonics & transport, or detailed product analysis or economic modelling though).
• Communications Applications & Services: How humans & machines communicate & what that enables. Voice, telephony, video comms, messaging, WebRTC, cPaaS, VoLTE, UC/UCaaS, role of telcos, contextual communications, social communications, VoIP apps, bots & speech-tech, wholesale, numbering, collaboration etc.
• TelcoFuturism: The intersection points of the telecoms / enterprise comms industry, with other orthogonal trends such as AI, blockchain, AR/VR, robotics, drones, IoT, self-driving vehicles, quantum technology, technological (un)employment, future government, human enhancement, geopolitics, advanced healthcare and demography.

In terms of client engagement and business model, I work as an analyst, consultant and futurist. This means several areas of activity:

• Written reports, sometimes under my own Disruptive Analysis brand (eg recently on eSIM - link - and soon on Blockchain + Telecoms & maybe WebRTC/cPaaS once again). 
• But in much greater volume, my report output goes through STL Partners / Telco 2.0, for which I act as Associate Director of the "Future of the Network" research stream (link). Recent FoN reports have covered 5G strategy, eSIM, LPWAN, Net Neutrality, SDN/NFV, SD-WAN. I'll be writing for STL on those topics plus also spectrum policy, VoLTE, satellite communications, vendor positioning & value-chain, network slicing & edge-computing in 2017. (If you're interested in subscribing to the Future of the Network programme, please contact me at information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com, or speak to an existing STL Partners sales contact).
• Internal advisory projects and workshops for operators, vendors, regulators and investors. I participate in various private consulting assignments, under-NDA roundtables and presentations, or advisory workshops - sometimes for C-level executives and sometimes for departmental/product/strategy teams. Much of my work is on assisting companies to understand future market context & opportunities (especially across multiple silos), answer complex questions about value-chain & competitive dynamics, or "stress-testing" of existing plans and world-views. I'm happy to provide proposals & references on request.
• Keynote speaker at public and private events. This spans both technology-specific issues ("what will 5G look like?", "what are the uses of blockchain in telecoms?") through to broader futurism ("what will the telecom industry look like in 2030, and what can we do about it?)". Get in touch if you want me to speak at something - fees/expenses apply for events that are company-specific, or require significant travel.
• Providing input into M&A due-diligence, regulatory & policymaking processes or investment theses. I'm no longer a certified financial analyst, though.
• Advisory boards and retainer relationships. I'm happy to work with clients on an ongoing basis, as long as it does not compromise my independence (eg ability to criticise). 
• Writing white papers or custom reports for vendors and operators. I only write documents where my opinion is already aligned with my client's, or where they are looking for a contrarian or "provocative" piece. I retain editorial control. Given my trenchant and well-publicised views on many technology areas, there's no point asking me to write a glowing testimonial for stuff I criticise regularly. (Also, I don't do product comparisons or endorsements).
• Some of my work is conducted in partnership with other independent consultants and analysts. I've worked with Martin Geddes (link), Alan Quayle (link) and Chris Lewis (link) before, and am open to other collaborations if they are mutually beneficial.
• Interviews and other contributions for press and broadcast media. As well as industry specialists like TelecomTV, I've also been quoted by BBC, Economist, FT & many others.

I attend and speak at/moderate a lot of events - probably around 30-40 a year. These are mostly in the UK, rest of Europe and US, although I'd intend to spend more time at conferences in Asia and the rest of the world. My favourite events are those with 100-300 people, run by small-to-midsize event companies, and not over-controlled by sponsors paying for speaking slots or trying to censor the agenda. Any credible event has dissenting voices and debate. 

Conferences I visit or speak at are mostly a mix of public industry events (eg TADSummit, Great Telco Debate, Terrapinn, Layer123, WiFiNow, Cambridge Wireless & Upperside are among the best), company-specific forums run by vendors (eg Comptel Nexterday, Metaswitch Forum, GenBand Perspectives) and regulatory/policy workshops. Some Meetups are good as well - in particular London Futurists.

I go to a few midsize trade shows (eg Enterprise Connect, TMForum) but not the ones with 10's of thousands of people (CES, MWC, CeBIT etc). The latter I find a complete waste of time, as I'm spread too thinly to be able to focus on particular themes. In the past I've had 400+ briefing invitations for MWC, and it takes weeks just to process emails and say "no thanks" without being excessively rude. 

My current roster of upcoming events (some speaking, some just attending) includes:

• Jan 23-24: Blockchain Summit, London
• Jan 23-34: IoT Tech Expo, London
• Jan 31: ECC Public Workshop on eCall, Copenhagen
• Feb 9: TMForum Action Week, Lisbon
• Feb 16-17: eSIM Summit, Prague
• March 21-24: MPLS+SDN+NFV World, Paris
• March 27-30: Enterprise Connect, Orlando
• April 18-20: WiFi Now, Washington DC
• May 15-18: TMForum Live, Nice
• May 17-18: UCExpo, London 
• May 23-25: Communicasia, Singapore
• June 14-15: Connected Britain, London
• Oct TBC, IIT RealTime Comms, Chicago
• Oct 31-Nov 1: Total Telecom Congress, London
• Nov TBC: Great Telco Debate, London
• Nov TBC: TADSummit, Lisbon

Please get in touch if you're looking for a speaker, moderator, or just an attendee prepared to ask difficult questions & post a bunch of commentary on Twitter during the event. Also, let me know if you're an AR professional running an analyst summit - I try to get to as many as I can.

In the past, I've also co-run small workshop-style events with Martin Geddes (eg on "Future of Voice") and that's something I may well return to in 2017.

In terms of publishing short-form pieces, this blog will continue to be my main vehicle. I also republish most longer pieces on my LinkedIn page (link), which often gets more comments and engagement - and also I put some on Medium (link), which doesn't. Occasionally people ask to syndicate my posts - it depends on the site and whether it gets a different audience to me. I don't often write guest posts for other people, except occasionally for consulting / retainer clients - I'm quite a bit more costly than freelance writers.

I put up quite a lot of my public conference presentations on SlideShare (link) although I intend to update it more frequently. There's also quite a few of my recent presentations on YouTube (link) & a few on Vimeo (link). I'm going to be doing - and collating - more video content in 2017.

Otherwise, for 2017 I'm hopefully going to carry on my usual broad & pithy coverage & commentary on the telecoms industry, plus spend a rather larger fraction of my time on more general futurism and tech-policy topics. If you don't know already, I'm @disruptivedean on Twitter, and can be reached by email at information at disruptive-analysis dot com.