A classic example of app complexity that network DPI would find hard to resolve

Today seems to be the day for me to needle some of my main targets. This morning I had another shot at the hapless RCS service, and now it's the turn of my biggest network-side punchbag, application-based charging.

I've just been given a classic example of why this is going to be nigh-on impossible to ever get right.

In theory, the network should be able to pick out the fact that I'm using Google Maps. I'm sure it's got a pretty predictable "signature" that the average DPI can spot.

But what it probably can't spot is *why* there is Google Maps traffic being used. I've just downloaded the latest version of the Vodafone "MyVodafone" app for my iPhone. It's pretty useful, with a good dashboard feature showing how much data I've used against my cap and so on. This version also comes with a WiFi logon feature.

The sign-up for this has a warning message, telling you that in order to find the nearest WiFi access point, the app uses (guess what) Google Maps. And that I am liable for the data charges incurred in doing so. Now I'm guessing that this is done for a good reason - most probably speed and expediency of getting the thing released, plus I also expect it doesn't use *that* much data in the big scheme of things.

In theory, Vodafone ought to have set up some sort of rule in its network to obviate this, and zero-rate its own offload-location data consumption, especially as its reduced macro network load makes it the main beneficiary. But that would have needed to somehow check that the offload app was indeed the "user" of Google Maps, rather just than me trying to find my way around normally. And that's rather hard, without some sort of agent on the device watching what's going on and trying to decode what GMaps packets are "native" in the mapping client, and which are used via the local API for specific apps.

This is precisely sort of hard and complex situation that I have in mind when I say that app-specific charging is going to be a nightmare. Imagine for a moment that Vodafone had a "menu-driven" non-neutral pricing model, where I got charged £3 a month for using the Google Map app. I'd be rightly irritated if *I* didn't use it, but the operator did itself through its own software, charging me for the privilege anyway. I don't expect the regulator would be too happy either.

On another note, let's see how the Vodafone WiFi app manages to coexist with my other WiFi finder (BT Fon) on my handset. I don't think either is auto-logon, but I can imagine some interesting situations if they are, as both use BT Openzone. Will I be able to tell which "virtual" WISP I've logged into? 

Creating user engagement in RCS and other communications services

I've been having many more discussions recently about my vehement views on RCS and why I think it is (still) destined for failure. In short, the current hoopla about various operators and vendors doing a big push to "make it happen" is not enough.

Yes, it helps that DT, FT, the US & Korean operators and (belatedly) Vodafone seem to be getting their marketing machines & spin-merchants lined up. Yes, it helps that RCS-e ditches the early RCS presence function which normally kills batteries and generates large amounts of extra signalling traffic. Yes it helps that Android is "malleable" so operators can get RCS-e clients onto some future handsets without too much pain. Yes, Orange and others are reportedly trying to strong-arm handset vendors into implementing it. Yes, executives from DT and other operators are name-checking it wherever possible on the conference circuit. Yes, I've even heard the word "freemium" mentioned in the same sentence as RCS.

All good stuff. But falling under the banner of "necessary but not sufficient".

These improvemens still don't mean that RCS-e somehow overcomes the other dozen or so problems I identified last year in my report on its near-inevitable demise. I predicted it would launch, splutter along for a bit, and then fail.

It's notable that when I have discussions with operators or vendors about what the problems really are, the one theme that seems to resonate is that of user engagement. How do you encourage people to actually use and exploit RCS rather than the myriad of other messaging and sharing and social-networking tools at their disposal? What makes them "invite friends" and others to accept those invitations? What makes them "invest" in the service?

Top of the list of things that versions of RCS I've seen *don't* do is permit the little snippets of user interaction that make alternatives like Facebook or Twitter or BlackBerry BBM so engaging.

The most obvious is "Like". On Facebook, you get instant validation that you've posted a cool picture, added a fun status update, attended a great event, listened to a great music track or whatever. It's a single click, but it communicates involvement, friendship, respect, attention, humour and all those other human qualities. It's a way to say "No, I haven't forgotten you, I am reading your stuff but don't have time to write a full message". It's like smiling at a friend, rubbing your partner's back, winking at someone in a crowd.

"Retweet" is similar. As are a whole host of "Vote up/down", "+1", "Recommend", "Share" and so forth.

These create user involvement and engagement, with a simple HTML link. They also tend to be extensible - as seen by the amount of Facebook Connect logos around the web.

Maybe a future version of RCS - or perhaps some operator-specific variants - will do something similar. Because if not, the services are likely to be very "dry".

There's another form of user interaction for messaging I've just become aware of in this context as well, triggered by this article about Apple's new iMessage service. It has something that most PC-based IM software has had for years, as well as BlackBerry Messenger - "typing indication". That's the little animation on a Skype or Yahoo IM window that shows that the other person is composing a reply. It will be interesting to see if any RCS clients can do the same thing - some of the specification documentation suggests it should.

The problem is that in future, communications users will have a very low tolerance of "clunkiness" - and they will also expect features to be upgraded like today's best apps, on a monthly or quarterly basis. There will also need to be a mechanism for operators to test different types of apps on certain groups of *live* customers. Google and Facebook can change their web page layouts, or app behaviours, for certain groups of their users, to see what works best. In my experience, it's pretty rare for telcos to do comparison-testing of different versions of services on their "production" customer base.

Overall, I still think that RCS is going to face insurmountable challenges - especially with newcomers like iMessage and whatever Google does with adding communications services into the browser. I think there will be a few niche usage cases - and perhaps specific countries where local conditions are unique enough to support it. But unless they get the user experience not just "good", but "fun" and "engaging" as well, it will struggle to gain traction.

Can telcos compete in an era of fashion-driven services?

NEW: Download the Future of Voice Masterclass flyer here

We're all used to the descriptions of the mobile phone business being (to some extent) fashion-driven. Just like clothes, some things go in and out of style - touchscreens, clamshells, big, small, black, coloured and so on. We've also heard plenty of handset brands described as cool / uncool - obviously with variations around the world.

I remember a few years ago, for example, SonyEricsson was very much an edgier and slightly counter-cultural brand in the UK, back in the pre-iPhone / Android era. I remember being at a gig and noticing which phones were being lofted overhead to take photos or videos of the band - S-E's were dominant among the younger fans.

So we see device brands - SonyEricsson, Apple, Nokia, HTC, Motorola and so forth - compared with cars (Audi, BMW, Ford, Nissan or whatever) or clothes (Ted Baker, Calvin Klein, Marks & Spencer, Armani and so on).

Up to a point, that's been mostly irrelevant to the mobile operators - barring the need to subsidise the more expensive ones, but that's usually (pre-iPhone) meant particular models rather than the whole brand. Sure, they've been able to exploit exclusive deals or other arrangements - but I don't think they've particularly cared if LG is seen as the equivalent of Mercedes or Citroen or Hyundai.

But now there is another issue - one already seen in the fixed-Internet world.

*Services* are now being driven by fashion, as well hardware. With the coming of smartphones and apps - and fast access to the public Internet, with new ways of creating "viral" adoption among communities - we have seen the rapid rise (and often fall) of novel ways to communicate. Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, BBM, Skype, Viber, LinkedIn and so on have grown in part because of adoption within groups. They can be tribal, cliquey, ephemeral - used for a season and then discarded (remember MySpace, Bebo, MSN?). Or they can be regional (Hyves, Friendster, Cyworld, vKontakt, Orkut, QQ etc).

This is much more problematic for telcos, as operators are used to egalitarian, very long-lived service offerings that don't vary much in popularity, awareness or coolness. This has been because in the past, there were very few communications services - phone calls, SMS, email, fax. All were essentially "designed by committee" and so none could possibly be thought of as cool or fashionable - they just "were there".

Sure, there are parts of the communications-using population which aren't particularly fashion-driven, but fewer than you might think. Plenty of CEOs want to connect their latest, shiniest i-Toy to the corporate network. Plenty of businesspeople were using BBM long before the teenagers go hold of their 'Berries. Even 10 years ago, people in finance were sending messages (and jokes) via the proprietary Bloomberg messaging system rather than corporate email.

But in any case, two important groups - people with money, and younger people - often *are* fashion-driven, or at least status-driven.

Now there's an important distinction here between equating phones, services and other non-tech brands such as cars and clothes. Phones are similar to cars in that most people only have one, or maybe two, keeping them for a considerable time. But people have wardrobes full of clothes, some new, some old, some cool, some utilitarian - and buy new ones regularly. They might buy the trendiest new shirt or coat for socialising, or something cheap and comfortable to chill out with on the sofa.

I think the PSTN and SMS and basic mobile telephony are going sofa-wards. They're not going to be made obsolete, but relegated to the status of lowest common denominator clothes essentials that everyone has. Underwear that gets worn when nobody else is likely to see it. Sweat-pants for doing the gardening. Comfy shoes for a long-haul flight. Stuff that gets worn when you don't care about being fashionable.

It's quite common even for the coolest of hipsters to buy their socks from Marks & Spencer. Plenty of people pair one item unique and expensive, with another which is totally generic. Prada + Primark. Zegna + Zara. Missoni + M&S. Tiffany + TopShop. (Not sure of the US or China or India equivalents here...)

The question is whether - and how - telcos could either turn into Primark equivalents, or develop platforms that could form the basis of continually-churning fashion-driven services. Primark, for those unaware, is hugely popular and quite profitable, even for low-end clothes. Its shop on London's Oxford Street is always swarming with people buying basic, cheap, almost-disposable clothes which nevertheless have an essence of coolness. Like Zara, it's been radically engineered to be responsive, with great back-office supply chain management. Conversely, other higher-end clothes brands have developed the annual cycles of fashion shows and manage to reinvent themselves regularly - and you also have fashion house with multiple brands.

Some operators - notably DoCoMo in Japan - have long been pitching "this season's new services", but that's still not common given the lengthy cycle times for development and standardisation.

It's really not obvious to me how standards-based telecoms offerings can ever again play at the top end of communications services. Even if industry initiatives like RCS succeed, I suspect that the best they can aim for is the being the next universal telecoms equivalent of a pack of £6-for-three Primark Y-fronts, worn underneath a pair of £300 designer/developer jeans. And to get to where Primark is today, they will still need prime retail space, a very hard-working team and flawless back-office functions.

NEW: Download the Future of Voice Masterclass flyer here
For Santa Clara event tickets on June 30th, book here  
For London tickets for July 14th, please contact me at information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com

Inspecting the inspectors & throttlers - reverse engineering network policy

I first wrote three years ago about the likelihood of various companies or other organisations starting to "reverse engineer" operators' traffic management policies.

Indeed, one of the common features of most regulators' pronouncements on more "flexible" regimes for Net Neutrality is that any traffic management is absolutely transparent to the user. Clearly, that transparency will need to be tested, either by regulators, consumer advocacy organisations or application providers.

So a hat-tip to Azi Ronen's great blog on Traffic Management for spotting this research paper from the US state of Georgia, which does some great analysis of US ISPs' throttling activities. A whole range of other tools are also listed on this page: http://rk.posterous.com/tools-for-testing-your-internet-connection

Over time, I'm expecting to see much more granular approaches to this - for example tracking application-specific policies or other rules and controls. I've seen some analysis by Epitiro presented at a conference, which showed a certain ISP degrading IPsec traffic at certain times each day. It seems likely that many others will join this trend as well - the EFF has certainly been doing it for a while, for example. 

I also expect that Google, Apple, Netflix or others are collecting a huge amount of their own data and measurements about application performance metrics from smartphones and other devices. They probably have very good views on what looks like "natural" variation in congestion and throughput, versus that which looks "unnatural". As is the case with the Georgia study, any "messing about" with the IP stream will stick out like a sore thumb - as well any background optimisation, content adaptation and so forth.

In other words, operators' network policies are likely to be transparent - whether they want it or not.

What will be interesting is what happens in circumstances in which the network's performance appears to have been modified - in direct contradiction to an operator's marketing campaigns or the local laws. It will be unsurprising if we see some prosecutions for mis-selling or outright fraud in some cases.