Published June 2014, updated January 2015
156 pages, 54 Tables & 42 Figures/Charts.
Jan'15 update has further 35 pages & 19 charts.
Interim update includes revised forecasts with geographic regional analysis, discussion of zero-rating, regulation trends, app-based charging models, impact of encryption & Apple's iPad programmable SIM card
156 pages, 54 Tables & 42 Figures/Charts.
Jan'15 update has further 35 pages & 19 charts.
Interim update includes revised forecasts with geographic regional analysis, discussion of zero-rating, regulation trends, app-based charging models, impact of encryption & Apple's iPad programmable SIM card
New & Non-Neutral Mobile Broadband Monetisation Models will generate $25bn in 2019 - just 6% of total mobile Internet/data access revenue
Disruptive Analysis has published a major study into the viability and potential scale of over 25 forms of "non-neutral" mobile broadband & Internet business models.
Email information AT disruptive-analysis to request an Exec Summary
2014 has seen huge shifts around the concept of Net Neutrality - the FCC has revealed details of new proposals, while the European Parliament voted for a harder version of neutrality than many in the telecoms industry wanted.
Lobbyists, activists and the wider telecoms and web industries are flooding the media and blog/twitterspheres with commentary, opinion and predictions of what might happen if Net Neutrality is/isn't enforced. Questions, rumours and myths about what may happen, if mysterious and vaguely-defined "Specialised Services" are permitted over broadband networks. Many observers have confused peering deals (eg Comcast/Netflix) with QoS-prioritised services, even though that is an entirely different issue.
But a deeper set of questions is being overlooked:
- What are the possible outcomes for mobile network operators in a world, where discrimination of data traffic on the basis of price or QoS is permitted?
- What are the realistic use-cases that might get applied?
- Who might pay for what services or capabilities?
- What is already happening in markets with more relaxed laws?
- Can "two-sided business models" work in mobile broadband?
- Will operators be able to charge users "per-application"?
... and the elephant in the room - are any of the non-neutral models actually viable or valuable anyway? Is it actually worth the effort & cost of new equipment, software - and lawyers and lobbyists?
The answer? It may be worthwhile, but only just. Models like sponsored data, QoS-enhanced services and application-based charging might account for just 6% of overall mobile Internet/broadband revenues in 5 years' time. Zero-rating of some content will also encourage some users to switch provider, or start on the first rung of mobile Internet use. Two-sided business models might yield 2% of overall mobile data revenues.
Another theme is that some types of non-neutrality are less controversial than others. Some applications are really just about mobile broadband rather than access to the Public Internet. Mobile operators and regulators should focus first on the former - enterprise connections, leading-edge M2M & IoT uses of cellular, public safety data applications and maybe paid data for mobile advertising. Conversely, so-called "fast lanes" for mobile video or applications are complex to achieve, cause huge controversy and - in the final analysis - likely won't be worth much anyway.
Lobbyists, politicians, telco execs and regulators need to "pick their battles" better.
One of the key themes is that new mobile data and Internet models are much harder to create than fixed non-neutral services. The realities of radio networks, device OS's, content/app consumption and policy/core infrastructure are hugely different and much more complex.
Disruptive Analysis has been following mobile data and broadband markets for over 10 years, watching the evolution from "multimedia" to open Internet, especially with the landmark introductions of Apple iPhone and Huawei USB modem in 2007. Two years ago, Disruptive Analysis published a report giving 10 reasons why the concept of "toll-free apps" was virtually impossible to realise. Today, indeed, none exist. The conclusions were correct.
This report is the first comprehensive analysis of the most important "non-neutral" use-cases in mobile broadband. It looks beyond vendor hype about policy-management, to examine the qualitative factors driving potential adoption and monetisation. Each sector is discussed in terms of technical, commercial and enviromental considerations, and both direct and indirect revenues are considered in a framework-style approach.
Purchasers will also receive the new Jan'15 update (35 pages).
ORDER AND PAYMENT LINKS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE
Email information AT disruptive-analysis to request an Exec Summary
Table of contents - January 2015 update (35 pages)
Regulatory developments
Net neutrality, the FCC and Title II
New services, vendors & “monetisation” angles
Encryption effect: DPI goes dark, Google wins?
What is happening? What are the implications?
The politics – IETF, OWA, GSMA, Google etc
Zero-rating
Apple SIMs
Peering and interconnect
User-driven policy management
Revised & extended market model
Geographic regional trends
Overall non-neutral market forecasts
Table of contents - Main 2014 Report
Executive summary
Why non-neutrality is an issue for mobile operators
Major practical challenges to creating non-neutral models
Analytical frameworks for assessing new models
Forecasts & recommendations
Mobile broadband & Internet: Market dynamics
Introduction
Mobile Internet vs. mobile data
History and the emergence of Mobile Internet
Mobile data & Internet market size & penetration
Mobile Internet access: implications for operators & vendors
Developed-market saturation
Two-sided business models for mobile data/Internet
Traffic growth & congestion
The “OTT threat”
Neutrality: relevance, regulation & controversy
Net Neutrality defined
Net
Neutrality
Disruptive Analysis house view: avoiding confirmation bias
The main arguments
2014: Regulatory turmoil & status update
US Net Neutrality developments
What is a “specialised service”?
Non-neutral broadband: Generic challenges
1. No clear definition of “an app” or “service”
Multi-app experiences
Partial-app experiences
2. Business Model Fit
International challenges
3. Apps’ data usage is device-dependent
4. Devices, OSs & QoS / non-neutrality
5. HTML5 changes the game again
6. Poor fit with WiFi use and femtocell offload
7. OSS/BSS challenges
8. Pricing, selling & marketing non-neutrality
9. Network dependencies & standards
10. Arbitrage & other unintended consequences
11. Mobile broadband is not like fixed
12. Organisational challenges in service providers
Main models for non-neutral mobile broadband
Analytical framework
Application-specific charging & packages
Single-app packages
Traffic class (eg video)
App group/class packaging
Proxy-based
User-defined packages: Multi-app packages & “favourite”
apps
Sponsored data / 1-800 data
Reverse-billed advertising
Sponsored websites / web-apps
1-800 / tollfree apps
Enterprise & BYOD
Zero-rating
Telco-OTT applications
Bundled paid apps
Bundled free apps
Free service & support data
Specialised services / QoS “fast lane”
Venue-based services & applications
Managed enterprise broadband
Public safety
Mobile IPTV / Video
M2M / IOT
Web/App Acceleration
Impeding & blocking / QoS “slow lane”
Unenforced terms & conditions
Blocking & throttling
Parental Control
Deliberate degradation
User-defined throttling / prioritisation
MVNO / wholesale offers
The “Kindle model”
Differentiated MVNOs
Other / miscellaneous approaches
Content modification
Customer-centric prioritisation
CDNs and paid-peering
The insurance-premium model
Forecasts, conclusions & recommendations
Market forecasts: How much revenue from non-neutrality?
Can two-sided business models work?
Summary
Recommendations for mobile operators
Recommendations for content & application providers
Recommendations for regulators
Recommendations for network/software vendors
Recommendations for investors
Recommendations for industry bodies, lobbyists &
activists
The Non-Neutral Mobile Broadband Business Models report can be ordered immediately via the Buy Now links below, or via information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com - payment accepted by credit card, Paypal and PO/invoice/bank transfer.
Purchasers also receive the January 2015 update (35 pages)
For online purchasers, the PDF document will be sent by email, typically within 24hrs of receipt of payment, although sometimes travel schedules may mean a small delay. Please include company name for licence purposes, and VAT number for EU purchasers.
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