NFC in all phones next year? Dream on....

There's a quote from an Ericsson representative about NFC and RFID-enabled handsets reported here.

Apparently, "A year from now basically every new phone that's sold will have NFC. It's a two-way, bi-directional RFID communication link that makes this device work as a tag or as a reader." [I wasn't there, so I'm assuming the quote is correct]

If someone from Ericsson would like to take a spreadbet with me about NFC uptake in 2010, I'm a seller. I'd like to think I'm a fair man, so I won't hold them to the letter of "basically every" - how about merely about half? What about we say 0.00001p per handset, each way from 500m?

And as for the idea of "enabling the phone to take on other roles, such as the keys for your car or house" that's really not the greatest of concepts, if as currently seems likely, the secure element of NFC is controlled by the operator.

"Oh, I'm sorry that you've decided to churn Mr Bubley. No, unfortunately you can't transfer the key account to another operator. But we have a special deal with a local locksmith, we can use your location API to send him to meet you now if you'd like? But next year, we'll be launching a key portability service, which should work fine with only a 3-day transfer period when you'll be unable to use it"