Mobile Multi-Connection & SD-WAN is coming

I’ve written before (link) about the impact of SD-WAN on fixed (enterprise) operators, where it is having significant effects on the market for MPLS VPNs, allowing businesses to bond together / arbitrage between normal Internet connection(s), small-capacity MPLS links and perhaps an LTE modem in the same box. Now, similar things are being seen in the mobile world. This is the "multi-network" threat I've discussed before (link).

Sometimes provided through a normal CSP, and sometimes managed independently, SD-WAN has had a profound impact on MPLS pricing in some corporate sectors. It has partly been driven by an increasing % of branch-site data traffic going into the HQ network and straight out again to the web or a cloud service. That “tromboning” is expensive, especially if it is using premium MPLS capacity.

The key enabler has been the software used to combine multiple connections – either to bond them together, send traffic via differential connections based on type or speed, add security and cloud-management functions, or offer arbitrage capabilities of varying sorts. It has also disrupted network operators hoping to offer NFV- and SDN-services alongside access: if only a fraction of the traffic goes through that operator’s core, while the rest breaks-out straight to the Internet, or via a different carrier, it’s difficult to add valuable functionality with network software.

But thus far, the main impact has been on business fixed-data connections, especially MPLS which can be 30-40x the cost of a “vanilla” ISP broadband line, for comparable throughput speeds. Many network providers have now grudgingly launched SD-WAN services of their own – the “if you can’t beat them, then join them” strategy aiming to keep customer relevance, and push their own cloud-connect products. Typically they’ve partnered with SD-WAN providers like VeloCloud, while vendors such as Cisco have made acquisitions.

I’ve been wondering for a while if we’d see the principle extended to mobile devices or users – whether it’s likely to get multiple mobile connections, or a mix of mobile / fixed, to create similar problems for either business or consumer devices. It fits well with my broader belief of “arbitrage everywhere” (link).

Up to a point, WiFi on smartphones and other devices already does this multi-connection vision, but most implementations have been either/or cellular and WiFi, not both together. Either the user, the OS, or one of the various cellular hand-off standards has done the switching.

This is now starting to change. We are seeing early examples of mobile / WiFi / fixed combinations, where connections from multiple SPs and MNOs are being bonded, or where traffic is intelligently switched-between multiple “live” connections. (This is separate from things like eSIM- or multi-IMSI enabled mobile devices or services like Google Fi, which can connect to different networks, but only one at a time).

The early stages of mobile bonding / SD-WAN are mostly appearing in enterprise or IoT scenarios. The onboard WiFi in a growing number of passenger trains is often based on units combining multiple LTE radios. (And perhaps satellite). These can use multiple operators’ SIMs in order to maximise both coverage and throughput along the track. I’ve seen similar devices used for in-vehicle connections for law enforcement, and for some fixed-IoT implementations such as road-tolling or traffic-flow monitors.

At a trade show recently I saw the suitcase-sized unit below. It has 12 LTE radios and SIMs, plus a switch, so it can potentially combine 3 or 4 connections to each network operator. It’s used in locations like construction sites, to create a “virtual fibre” connection for the project office and workers, where normal fixed infrastructure is not available. Usually, the output is via WiFi or fixed-ethernet, but it can also potentially support site-wide LPWAN (or conceivably even a local private unlicensed/shared-band LTE network). 

It apparently costs about $6000 or so, although the vendor prefers to offer it as a service, with the various backhaul SIMs / data plans, rather than on a BYO basis. Apparently other similar systems are made by other firms – and I can certainly imagine less-rugged or fewer-radio versions having a much lower price point.

But what really caught my eye recently is a little-discussed announcement from Apple about the new iOS11. It supports “TCP Multipath”. (this link is a good description & the full Applie slide-deck from WWDC is here). This should enable it to use multiple simultaneous connections – notably cellular and WiFi, although I guess that conceivably a future device could even support two cellular radios (perhaps in an iPad with enough space and battery capacity). 

That on its own could yield some interesting results, especially as iOS already allows applications to distinguish between network connections (“only download video in high quality over WiFi”, etc).It also turns out that Apple has been privately using Multipath TCP for 4 years, for Siri - with, it claims, a 5x drop in network connection failure rates.

The iOS11 APIs offer various options for developers to combine WiFi and cellular (see slide 37 onward here). But I’m also wondering what future generations of developer controls over such multipath connectivity might enable. It could allow novel approaches to security, performance optimisation on a per-application or per-flow basis, offload and on-load, and perhaps integration with other similar devices, or home WiFi multi-AP solutions that are becoming popular. Where multiple devices cooperate, many other possibilities start to emerge.

What we may well see in future is multi-device, multi-access, P2P meshes. Imagine a family at home, with each member having a subscription and data-plan with a different mobile network. Either via some sort of gateway, or perhaps using WiFi or Bluetooth directly between devices, they can effectively share each others’ connections (and the fixed broadband), while simultaneously using their own “native” cellular data. Potentially, they can share phone numbers / identities this way as well. An advanced connection-management tool can optimise for throughput, latency or just simply coverage anywhere in the house or garden. 

This could have a number of profound implications. It would lead to much greater substitution between different networks and plans. It would indirectly improve network coverage, especially indoors. It could either increase or decrease demand for small cells (are they still needed, if phones can act as multi-network relays? Or perhaps operators try to keep people “on net” and give them away for free?). From a regulatory or law-enforcement standpoint it means serious challenges around identifying individual users. It could mean that non-neutral network policies could be “gamed”, as could pricing plans.

Now I’ll fully admit that I’m extrapolating quite a bit from a seemingly simple enhancement of iOS. (I’m also not sure how this would work with Android devices). But to me, this looks analogous to another Apple move last year – adding CallKit to iOS, which allowed other voice applications to become “first-class citizens” on iPhones, with multiple diallers and telephony experiences sharing call-logs and home-screen answerability.

Potentially, multipath in iOS allows other networks to become (effectively) first-class citizens as well as the “native” MNO connection controlled from the SIM.

I’m expecting other examples of mobile connection-bonding and arbitrage to emerge in the coming months and years. The lessons from SD-WAN in the fixed domain should be re-examined by carriers through a wireless lens: expect more arbitrage in future.

Apple Upgrade - will carrier activation be done with an eSIM or Apple SIM?

The iPhone 6s still has an ordinary SIM slot. Next year, I predict that the iPhone 7 will still have an ordinary SIM slot too. 

But Apple's new Upgrade installment plan that allows people to get a fresh new smartphone every year might change the SIM in the longer term. It's US-only to start with.

There is also a possibility of a removable Apple SIM as part of the Upgrade plan - a similar concept as the one in last year's iPad. That's more likely for next year rather than this year.... but at the time of writing this post (11th September 2015) Apple still hadn't put up the full details of how "carrier activation" would work on the web, so it's *possible* that there will be a surprise coming much sooner (maybe even tomorrow, when pre-orders start).

There is also a possibility that the iPhone 7, next year, will have an embedded "eSIM", although it would also need to have a proper SIM slot too, or at least two versions to choose from.

The Upgrade programme makes a lot of sense - most US carriers now have some form of installment plan for smartphones, rather than a bundled-in "subsidy". That's actually been part-driven as an effect of changing accounting rules, which restrict the bundling of products and services in reported revenues. See this article here from last year, and my own 2007 post where I mused about the economics of phone subsidies, here.

The Upgrade plan allows customers to get their iPhone finance plan from Apple, rather than through AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile or Sprint. (For Apple, it's actually a lease underwritten by Capital One). The one-year cycle allows Apple to potentially increase revenues, while running this through the Apple stores removes the risk of last-minute switching to Android devices, with a nudge from a carrier salesperson who's been incentivised to pitch Samsungs.

But a couple of things are left unsaid at the moment. When Apple talks about setting up and "activating" your phone on the carrier of your choice, what does that actually mean? 

For some users, it will just mean taking the SIM out of your existing 5s or 6, and popping it into a shiny new 6s. But what if you want to switch to a new carrier - or perhaps a new plan? Will the Apple store keep a stock of SIMs from all the carriers and activate them on the spot, like an independent phone shop? Or.... will it perhaps use Apple's own SIM, with a remote-activation setup menu as on last year's iPad? [EDIT: it has been pointed out to me that Apple already stocks some SIM cards in its US stores. Question remains though, which plans? Including prepay or just normal multi-year contracts?]

[My take on the Apple SIM last year was posted here. As I argued at the time, it has not been a big deal. Other carriers have not signed up, beyond a provider called GigSky, which appears to work with major global carriers like Digicel and Vodafone on a roaming basis]

In theory, and with the cooperation of the carriers, the new 6s could work with an Apple SIM card as well. Rather than walking out of the Apple store and then going to a carrier store for a SIM separately, it would be easier to just remotely download and activate a "profile" on either a blank (Apple-branded) SIM, or in future, to an embedded SIM chip inside the body of the phone. Ideally, Apple would love to do away with the design compromises from cutting a slot in the device, reclaiming space and removing a clunky mechanical component.

However, various scenarios here would require some complex behind-the-scenes processing, like porting your existing mobile phone number, and also maybe dealing with contract termination fees. This is why I have my doubts that it will happen this year, and even next year will have some headaches. They're not insurmountable for Apple - but they probably are insurmountable for others, for anything other than IoT-type deals like Samsung's Gear S2 watch with eSIM from last week.

Either way, whether it's this year or next, the Upgrade plan gets customers used to the idea that you "activate a carrier" on an iPhone bought from Apple. And given that there is no subsidy or payment plan from the carrier, there is no justification for 2-year contract plans, either.

If you have an unlocked iPhone, you'll be much more amenable to getting a rolling and cancellable 1-month contract (already popular in the UK and elsewhere, but less-so in the US) or even a full pay-as-you-go prepay account. You might even choose to go for a data-only SIM, and "bring your own voice".

In that scenario, it actually doesn't really matter (for now) which SIM model Apple uses:

• Swap out your existing SIM & put it in the new iPhone, in the Apple store
• Buy a SIM from a carrier store & put it in the iPhone
• Buy a SIM sold in an Apple store & put it in the iPhone
• Get a removable Apple SIM supplied with the iPhone, activate a carrier if it's chosen to be on the menu, or else take it out & buy a separate SIM as per the options above
• Have an eSIM inside the phone and activate a carrier of your choice, if they're on the menu. (If not, then there's probably a version with a proper SIM, as some countries' operators won't all be eSIM-ready anyway).

Long, long term (maybe 2020 to coincide with 5G) we might get to the "promised land" (or dystopia, depending on your viewpoint) of fully virtual SIMs, but don't hold your breath.

The problem with the eSIM / downloadable Apple SIM type model has always been getting carriers to agree to be involved. I've been skeptical that the model had legs, because of this. But the installment / upgrade plan - and Apple's footprint of own-brand stores - seems to be a victory thought up by a clever game-theorist.

One of the carriers will likely agree to in-store activation on Apple SIM / eSIM - or at least, agree to having their SIMs stocked in Apple's retail outlet. It saves customers a second shopping visit. And then the other carriers may be forced to follow suit. Given that at least *some* people will be able to activate their 6s "on the spot" by simply swapping out their existing SIM, there's even greater incentive to use the Apple Store as a point of decision, if you're trying to capture people ready to churn.

Apple has essentially flipped the cellular sales model on its head - rather than a Verizon/AT&T salesperson having the power to convince a user to switch to a Samsung in a carrier store, it's now in a position to convince users to switch to a different carrier, in an Apple store.

The interesting line on Apple.com is this: "Because the iPhone Upgrade Program isn’t tied to a single carrier, you don’t need a multiyear service contract. If you don’t have any carrier commitments, you’re free to select a new carrier or stick with the one you have. A Specialist can answer questions and help you set your iPhone up the way you like." Note the absence of the word SIM, and the phrases "select a new carrier" and "set up your iPhone". That's rather significant - it implies the SIM is available in-store, in some fashion, for the carrier to be "selected".

So in many ways, the actual SIM mechanism is irrelevant here - it's the retail footprint that matters. Lots of carriers are worried about the eSIM / Apple SIM meaning they "lose ownership of the customer", but the truth is more prosaic: it's the physical store that's the point of control / decision, because it plays to the human psychological need for instant gratification. Even online purchases are clunkier - unless you have same-day delivery, there's an in-built lag for activation anyway. Of course, it's also important that other device vendors don't have a similar retail presence.

Now obviously, the Upgrade plan isn't actually needed here. Nothing stops people from walking into an Apple Store and buying an unlocked phone at full retail price & getting a SIM card however they want anyway. But in the US at least, that's still very much a "minority sport", because of the price tag involved. It's just not how people buy phones, when they're accustomed to an apparently "free" or cheap handset. The monthly plan - and upgrade cycle - might change that, as it alters perception. It's also a clever lead in to some form of programmable SIM card, when it's worked out the various kinks and practicalities.

I suspect that Apple isn't 100% sure how customers will take to this. And it's probably ironing out various kinks and complexities with any sort of remote activation. It may want to wait until all the carriers have back-end systems capable of handling it, rather than risking relationships by jumping the gun with just one or two. Again, the game-theorists are probably trying to work out how to avoid one or more carrier stopping selling iPhones entirely in their own stores, which would have definite negative impact, in the short term at least.

My view on programmable SIMs / eSIMs is that business model is pretty much unworkable, except, perhaps, for Apple. Let's see what happens either next week, or next year.



I've been doing a lot of work thinking about SIMs, eSIM, programmable SIMs, multi-IMSI and so forth recently. Over recent months, I've done a variety of private consulting projects and presentations on my thoughts on SIMs. I've been looking at the announcements, and also considering what the commercial, technical and regulatory implications of various evolution paths might be. If you're interested in a workshop on this, please get in touch via information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com

Inevitabilities, adjacencies and anti-forecasting

I get annoyed by “unintended consequences”. Too often, they are only “unintended” because they were not predicted. Similarly, many forecasts fail to become real, as they overlook predictable problems – or perhaps, distant external factors that cut the ground from under them. Another category of “predictable failure” comes from wishful-thinking “visions” that ignore other, unstoppable trends that make them impossible.

When it comes to analysing the future direction of technology markets – be it my normal stamping ground of telecoms, my broader futurism work, or even politics – I am constantly aware that companies, industry-bodies and self-appointed visionaries fail to look outside their narrow silos. Consistently, and near-universally.

Now, obviously, nobody has a perfect crystal ball about what will happen. But it is often possible to determine what won’t happen, or at least has a vanishingly-small probability. And it is also possible to identify other factors which will almost-certainly happen in the same time frame – and see their possible inter-dependence.

That’s all quite abstract, so a current real-world example: the use of online encryption, and the recent reaction from telcos and governments.

It’s been pretty clear to me for years that once Moore’s Law meant that data could routinely be encrypted with minimal cost (monetary, power, latency, inconvenience etc), then it would be. It was locked-in. Pretty much inevitable. All other things being equal, people like increased privacy and security – or at least, the perception of it. And even if “people” didn’t want it, then it seemed likely that a lot of companies would, on their behalf.

Encryption – like any security measure - can always be foregone, in specific circumstances, where it makes sense and all actors make rational decisions. It’s safer to make non-encryption the exception, not vice-versa.

The exact timelines, technologies and architectures were less-clear (to me at least). And it certainly wasn’t obvious that the largest catalyst would be fears raised by a whistle-blower about state surveillance – although the growing use of VPNs, Tor and other techniques in repressive regimes were pointing that direction anyway. Continued examples of hacking of apps and servers, data leaks, credit card databases stolen and so forth also made “more encryption” a safe bet as a generic forecast. Invasive actions by telcos inspecting or modifying data traffic have also been a contributor – albeit perhaps less than I expected in pre-Snowden days.

Now given that “more encryption” was what I’d call an “inevitability”, you might have thought that companies impacted by it might have started preparing long ago. Instead, the last 12 months have seen Governments and telcos panicked by the rise of HTTPS and SPDY, as well as proprietary encryption techniques used in apps, peer-to-peer technologies and VPNs. (I suspect that many security services had been quietly predicting this, but politicians seem to be treating it as a sudden surprise too).

Now I’m not going to make a call on how to “deal with” encryption or not here, whether it’s a good or bad thing in certain circumstances – I just want to point out that the situation has been predictable. Yet nobody seems to have run a filter of “hmm, what happens when it all goes dark?” over their existing products, services and practices, over the last five years or so.

The same concept of “inevitability” has also been the curse of many other technology domains. It has been inevitable since at least 2005 that, sooner or later, somebody would realise that sending 160 characters of text was pretty simple and cheap, and not worth 1-10c per message. Yet we had to go through years of vendors saying “mobile data can be worth $10000/MB, look at SMS!” without many people considering the inevitable conclusion that it wasn’t really “worth” that, when decent competition finally emerged. Instead, industry groupthink tried to pitch “value-based pricing”, when in reality it was “grudging-acceptance pricing”.

The fact that the mobile industry has probably pocketed an extra trillion dollars in profits from over-priced SMS over the last decade is a fortunate accident. The emergence of Whatsapp, LINE & WeChat was a predictable – nay, inevitable – eventuality. In many ways, it was overdue. It was only some fairly clunky UIs and low penetration which stopped it happening during the Symbian/J2ME era, as there were plenty of early pre-Whatsapp attempts. The signs were there.

Yet once again, that inevitability was ignored. Rather than making sensible attempts to defend SMS by adding value, the golden goose was ignored. Rather than reinvesting 5%, 10%, 20% in service innovation, SMS revenues were classified as “data” in operators’ financial reports and used to help justify 3G/4G licences and investments. This despite the inevitability that faster networks would make the risks even greater.

Telephony is next up. We already know the inevitabilities there – and although some vendors and software developers are (finally) trying to make phone calls more useful and “friendly”, that message hasn’t percolated through to many in charge of investment and service-innovation at network operators. Instead, they are focused on recreating Telephony 1.0 and putting the bulk of investment into things like VoLTE.

But telephony – and messaging – also have to counter effects other than just the “inevitability” of free/low-cost VoIP and IM. They also have to factor in the power of adjacency – things going on in the “silo next door” – or perhaps the silo down the street or over the horizon.

For telephony, adjacencies come from various use-cases for WebRTC-type contextual communications, as well as concepts like hypervoice. But they also come from changes in human communication more broadly – the replacement of some “voice” tasks with apps (eg booking taxis), or perhaps richer forms of interaction like augmented/virtual reality.

In the networking and broadband space, some adjacencies are starting to become visible – such as competition from new platforms such as satellites, drones and balloons, as well as direct peer-to-peer communications between devices. Others are less-obvious, such as the slow move of governments and large non-telecom companies into the domain of network ownership, as well as cloud services. Only today, bank Santander announced that it would offer online storage to businesses. Expect automotive, utility, healthcare and other providers to take prominent roles in IoT development – potentially including network ownership.

As another example, there’s a lot going on in the arcane world of SIM cards. Everyone remembers a couple of weeks of excitement around the Apple SIM last year. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Have you heard about the liberalisation of MNC codes, and what that might imply in future, for example? What about downloadable IMSIs? Blinded by the acronyms and obscurity? Well, that’s where some of the disruptions are potentially coming from. Fore-warned is fore-armed.

The trick here is to think not just in terms of projections and forecasts – but in terms of intersections. What other lines are coming up to meet your beautiful curves stretching out to the future? What happens to your assumptions when those lines cross?

This gets much harder when one tries to apply the same principles to more general forecasting, or futurology. It’s easy to get caught out by automobiles when you try to predict the evolution of the horse-and-cart. The “paperless office” failed to take account of cheap printers, better online document-publishing – and human psychology and behaviour. Many, many predictors of “convergence” have completely missed other trends which actually favour “divergence” and fragmentation.

There’s a lot of predictions about AI around at the moment – both utopian and (especially) dystopian. But few factor in other parallel trends, such as enhancement of human cognition, whether by software, pharmaceutical means, or even genetics. A whole host of societal trends also take on a new complexion, if one factors in increasing longevity, biomedical advances, robotics, nanotech, 3D printing and so on. What happens to our security (and encryption) when the smart lightbulb reads your email on your screen over your shoulder, or listens to your conversation, before you even get to tunnel it through a VPN?

The story here is to look beyond the upbeat, positive predictions and hockey-stick curves. They’re seductive – but you also need to have a Devil’s advocate view, trying to pick holes in the narrative. Ideally, the ideas are not just “robust” to criticism, but as per Nassim Taleb, they are “antifragile” and strengthened by the challenge.

I haven’t mentioned politics much in this post, but that’s an important domain for this type of analysis too. Many of the more populist agendas fall prey to the “unintended consequences” flaw. For example, imagine an anti-capitalist agenda that inadvertently breaks Moore’s Law, or the investment case for new factories to make chips, smartphones or PCs. Or perhaps, penalises entrepreneurs who make huge exits when they sell startups. At one level, it might be seen as preventing “planned obsolescence”, or reducing inequality. But if a knock-on effect is a slowing in technology needed for climate models, environmental sensor networks, design and development of new clean energy technologies – then it will have been a Pyrrhic victory, with severely negative consequences.

Visionaries tend to think in terms of clean, idealistic utopias. Or of one over-arching metaphor like a “personal AI”, or a centrally-determined allocation & orchestration of processing or networking resources in a perfect cloud/NFV/SDN telecoms industry. They forget about legacy technologies, second-order effects, human behaviour, regulatory/political concerns and practical issues getting from “here and now” to the sunny uplands of the future. If the route goes via predictably-dangerous territory in between, the idealists have a duty to scrutinise it in advance.

So in reality, the future is messy. And analysis of inevitabilities, and the practice of “anti-forecasting” (what won’t happen) need to form a part of any visionary’s or forecaster’s arsenal of weapons.

The quote that the future is “already here, but unevenly distributed” comes from William Gibson, whose awkward, heterogeneous, sometimes-jarring worlds of the near-future are much more realistic than the beneficent, techno-utopian, AI-assisted Culture envisioned by my other favourite author, the late Iain M. Banks.

Beware of “elegance” in technology (or socio-political) predictions – it’s almost inevitably wrong. Wishful-thinking is a useful thought experiment. But it’s not a “vision” – it’s just a screenplay or fictional plot, and usually a rigid one at that. Hybrids, overlaps, complexity, gaps, inefficiencies, blurred definitions, political and human realities, flexibility - those are the signs of a realistic forecast or prediction.

If you are interested in due diligence, Devil’s Advocacy, or an open workshop/brainstorm on possibilities, inevitabilities or anti-forecasting, please get in touch, at information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com.