Quick thoughts on MWC from afar

I'm not in Barcelona this week.

I stopped going to MWC a few years ago, when the hassle and costs involved started outweighing the benefits. One year I had 400 requests for meetings, and it took me a solid 2 weeks of email just to sort my diary. No more - I prefer smaller events, which have the added benefit of fewer "messages" being hammered into my skull by stressed marketing execs and their PR/AR minders.

But I am watching from afar, scanning Twitter and a few webcasts for nuggets of insight, from the comfort of my sofa, bed or local artisan coffee place.

A couple of quick observations so far:

• The most intriguing announcement is the Cisco/Ericsson blending of VoLTE and Cisco's Spark collaboration and messaging app (link). Although the PR is carrier-focused and around selling UCaaS, I suspect the real story is yet to come. Both companies also have close relationships with Apple and IBM. And I suspect that a future enterprise-centric solution could combine private (or virtual-private) mobile networks, optimised iPhone/iPad experience, maybe eSIM, Siri, Watson integration and more. Let's see if there's any different messaging, or more detail, at Enterprise Connect next month, the big UC/UCaaS shindig in Orlando. I'll be there, unlike MWC, as it gets the signal/noise ratio right. [Sidenote: if anyone at Ericsson or Cisco is now thinking "hmm, sounds interesting.... why haven't we thought of that?" then get in touch with me!]
• Nokia's reinvention continues. On its analyst/press webcast yesterday, it made a big deal about verticals and enterprise-related activities too. Utilities, transport, public sector and "webscale" companies were namechecked, including (again) private cellular either standalone or in partnership with classical MNOs. It also highlighted optical and IP networks (which came with the ALU acquisition) which was an interesting choice for a mobile event. Props to CEO Rajeev Suri for using "Webscale" instead of the pejorative "OTT": much more mature and inclusive language. 
• There's an awful of of 5G-washing going on, unsurprisingly, with plenty of references to its supposedly world-changing abilities. Governments and policymakers have all swallowed the 5G spin, without realising it's mostly just a pitch for more spectrum. Yet the GSMA head Mats Granryd talked in his keynote about 1.1 billion users in 2025. Given half of those (or more) are likely to be smartphones, that suggests that maybe 500m, at most, will be 5G IoT devices. Which, depending on your preferred overhyped forecast number, implies about 1-4% of the total IoT universe in 2025 - hardly the most indispensable enabler of the overall automated society of the future, nor an indicator that a spectrum monoculture policy is desirable. Doesn't suggest billions in new value from network-slicing capabilities, either. In a nutshell, 5G is important, but it's not the gamechanger many assert. Use the hashtag #5Gwash to call people out on it.
  
• The most-discussed new handset is HMD Global's new take on the classic Nokia 3310. As well as its retro looks, it sports a month-long battery, the Snake game, and a whole two (count 'em!) generations of cellular technology. That's right, it's a good-ole 2G GSM, calls+SMS device. Plus, it comes in a dual-SIM version. That's proper plastic SIMs, naturally, not this newfangled eSIM stuff. Sounds like a great backup device for 2-factor authentication when your main phone breaks or gets stolen.  
• GSMA published an eBook on "Messaging as a Platform" (link), tying its MaaP vision to RCS. There's a lot of generic stuff about chatbots, AI and "conversational commerce" in there, without explaining how it relates to a useless messaging service which isn't even a successful product, nor has any form of unifed API. Unless, as I suspect, it's aimed at making MNOs the distribution channel for Google's chat interface, Assistant and voice-recognition tools. Maybe there's a Google API / PaaS play to look forward to?  As I wrote last week, operators should ignore RCS and So-Called Advanced Messaging (yes, I like the acronym) and do more-relevant things instead. The same applies to contact-centre and multi-channel vendors: there are plenty of more-urgent things to look at. The GSMA's continued use of a Twitter SnapChat avatar points to the fact that platform status is earned not just imposed.
• The "official" announcement that Deutsche Telekom's immmr VoIP/messaging spin-off is using GenBand's Kandy cPaaS is interesting (link), although it was talked about informally last year at TADSummit (link). Looks like it's Internet/WebRTC-based and very much a good example of "post-IMS" mobile communications, with iOS and Android apps as well as browser access. No RCS nonsense visible, although I can imagine that DT's network-fundamentalist wing might have something to say about in future.

More MWC de-spinning if I get a chance over the next couple of days.

Microsoft / LinkedIn helps kill the phone number as a primary B2B identifier

I'll keep this focused, as there will be hundreds of articles dissecting the MS / LI acquisition that will no doubt cover most angles.

For me, the key element is that LinkedIn has one of the only "identity spaces" that allows people from different companies to connect. The two other most-popular ID types, which cover company-to-company communications, are phone numbers and email addresses. Unlike those, LinkedIn actually has a functioning searchable directory, with real names and mutual-connection "opt-in" model to reduce spam. It also follows people from job to job.

Other options are very minor - some business-people connect via Twitter's messaging function, some have industry-specific IM systems like Bloomberg & Symphony in finance, and some interact via channels on Slack and similar services niche collaboration platforms. 

Three other identities stand out - Google ID (used for HangOuts and a few strange folk on G+), Skype, and Lync/Skype for Business. Some business-people probably end up communicating via iMessage but that's usually triggered via an initial phone-number exchange, as is WhatsApp and pretty much all the other major mobile messaging services.

None of the other UC/UCaaS services from Cisco, Avaya, Unify, Mitel or Broadsoft-enabled operators really have their own inter-company addressing, directory and search/discovery function, although they can sometimes use specific federation techniques, or indeed integrate with Microsoft's Office365 and other systems.

If it can put the pieces together, Microsoft now has:

• LinkedIn's real-name addressing
• Outlook / Office365's ability to link email addresses to presence and Microsoft's own identity space
• Skype IDs for both consumers and individual business-people
• Phone numbers provided for SkypeIn and PSTN Calling in Skype4B
• WebRTC/ORTC for "guest access"
• Dynamics for CRM / sales automation

It is thus now the only company that can legitimately claim to control directories for both internal and external connections among business users, plus a fair number of consumers as well. It is already quite common for people to use LinkedIn as a surrogate contact database, when they cannot immediately find someone's phone number or remember their email address - especially when they move jobs.

(It should however be noted that LinkedIn tends to polarise opinion quite a lot - while it has a proportion of regular users who exploit it for networking, recruitment, groups and articles, it also has many members that have neglected profiles and limited active use. I'd been expecting LinkedIn to add realtime communications with WebRTC for some time but nothing has appeared - although it will be interesting to see if there's been anything behind the scenes that Microsoft will accelerate).

That has big implications for two groups:

• Telcos will see the role of the phone-number diminish further in a B2B context, as it becomes ever-closer to being just a lowest common-denominator fallback option. Added to its diminishing scope for B2C (because of in-messaging chat, app notifications etc), this doesn't augur well for E.164's continued primacy
• Cisco, Broadsoft and others need to think closely how to tie together inter- as well as intra-company connections. I'll be interested to see if Cisco tries to leverage its Apple relationship, or if the UCaaS platform-players try to lean on Google [Which has been cropping up regularly at events, pitching Android for Work]. We could also see attempts by competitors to federate their various cloud platforms - perhaps using something like Matrix.org as an intermediary.

This also puts the pressure on Facebook to step up with its long-promised enterprise offer, and means that any sign that Slack, HipChat or peers are gaining viral adoption will be greeted with enthusiasm (and perhaps acquisition offers). We will also see redoubled interest in industry-specific federated messaging in healthcare or finance or government verticals.

[There are also impacts on other companies like Salesforce in the CRM arena, but I'll leave that for others to discuss]

Of course, all this is contingent on Microsoft/LinkedIn gaining approval from competition authorities - and of course also assumes Microsoft can do a rather better job with integration than it managed with Skype in the first place.

But overall, this is hugely important - and has ramifications that extend across the business communications sphere, and may ultimately prove to be (another) nail in the coffin of the phone number & PSTN as the primary B2B identity-space.

Communications apps, APIs & integrations: Import vs. Export models

There is a huge and growing interest in blending communications apps/services with other software capabilities. We are moving from a world of standalone voice, video and messaging to a range of contextualised, workstream-based and embedded alternatives.

But there are two very distinct philosophies emerging for app/comms integration:

• Export: this involves extending communications capabilities out from a central system (phone system, UC, messaging app, videoconferencing etc) into other applications or websites via APIs, or by offering granular service-components (eg WebRTC gateway, transcoding, recording etc) via a PaaS approach. Numerous examples exist, from
• Vendors (eg Unify's Circuit APIs, Genband Kandy, Xura Forge, Cisco Tropo, ALU's Rapport APIs, BroadSoft, Vidyo etc)
• Dedicated PaaS providers (eg Twilio, SightCall, Temasys) or niche specialists such as Voxbone (which does numbering for example)  
  
• Telcos' API platforms, which may be network-integrated like AT&T's Developer Platform, standalone PaaS like Telefonica Toxbox, or even just web-embeddable objects like Telenor appear.in
• Import: this involves treating the communications application or service as the user's primary experience, and bringing in other applications as "integrations" or mini-apps. These can be other communications tools (eg WebRTC video windows in a messaging app) or other functions (eg social or process-based integrations). This particularly fits with the "timeline" or "workstream" model, or perhaps a "dashboard". Examples exist in a number of areas:
• Enterprise is moving towards "workstream collaboration and communications" (WCC) apps, such as Slack, Cisco Spark, Unify Circuit and various others which can embed external services into a timeline. BroadSoft's Tempo concept looks more like a dashboard model than a timeline, but also brings in sources like DropBox.
• Consumers are moving towards "Messaging as a Platform" apps, notably in Asia with WeChat, which embeds mini-apps such as taxi-ordering into the message stream. Facebook is taking Messenger in the same direction, and even telcos want to replicate this - Deutsche Telekom is trying to reinvent RCS to take it in that direction, for example.

The API-led "export" model has been the primary trend in WebRTC, SMS and telcos' network/IMS strategies in recent years. We hear a lot about the "consumption" of APIs, "embedding" of communications or the "exposure" of a core system. It is definitely growing rapidly, in numerous guises. Click-to-call buttons embedded in websites or apps are a typical manifestation. (Video below is embedding AT&T capability into Plantronics' website)

But the success of apps such as Slack and WeChat have led to a resurgence of the idea of "unifying" communications, or using a "hub" approach, where a messaging/voice/video app becomes the central anchor of a user's "online life", either as a dedicated application or browser home-page.

Some vendors are trying both approaches - Unify and Cisco seem to be looking at both import and export models. It might be where Google is intending to take Jibe along with telcos and Android as well. Some UCaaS players seem to be taking a similar path (eg with ThinkingPhones acquisition of Fuze) as well as WCC specialists like Atlassian's HipChat.

Others are taking different angles - Microsoft seems to be using Office 365 as the anchor, importing its own Skype4Business UC application as well as maybe others in future, probably via ORTC. I suspect it will "export" more communications as well, in future. Apple (as usual) is different, still using iOS as its main platform for very selective import of a few comms/social tools such as Facebook and Twitter, and largely avoiding any export models at all. (There is no way to embed FaceTime or iMessage in a website, for example). Apple also tends to dislike apps acting as subsidiary platforms on mobile, especially if there are payments involved.

It is too early - and too polarised - to determine whether import or export will be most significant, and for which use-cases and customer segments. We may see different "balances of payments" for different vendors and service providers. However, there are a number of early conclusions to draw:

• Import models need a good and usable / well-liked core product, before they can become a platform
• Export models need the right "raw ingredients", eg simple video or SMS APIs, with the right (typically freemium) commercial model to attract developers
• Import models tend to work best with a core that is text/timeline-based, ie non-realtime
• There is a risk that some import models appear as "arrogant": I can imagine some users thinking "What, you expect me to spend the core of my day in your app?! You must be joking"
• Export models face a lot of competition - external developers have many APIs to choose from, or can implement their own capabilities from scratch.
• Import models involve competition between comms tools and other apps as the "anchor" - eg a UC tool, vs. social networks, or an Office/Google Apps suite as hub, or major enterprise products like SAP/Salesforce, or a vertical-specific platform like a medical practice-management app.
• Import and export approaches often vary in implementation between Android, iOS, Windows and native chipset-level
• Telcos have been trying export models for a long time, with limited success. Often, 3rd party platforms that act as aggregators / or "export agents". Cable / IPTV companies are closer to the import model as they own the set-top box interface to "on-board" other solutions
• We might see NFV / VNF architectures helping with telco-grade import & export in future, but for communications services it's still a long way off
• Mobile app usage tends to be fragmented. With the notable exception of WeChat, it's not clear that a full import model works well with the app paradigm on smartphones. That said, we may see greater cross-linkage between apps in future.
• Certain groups of knowledge-workers may be more well-suited to "import" comms apps, especially if they are either communications-primary users (eg call centre agents) or heavily-collaborating teams.
• Design skills are paramount throughout, for integrations to be usable. 
• We will see some "importers" acquiring companies to extend the core app functions. Slack/Screenhero is a good example. This may compete with some 3rd-parties' integrations, but may also make life easier for iOS appstore approvals.
• Both import and export models make life much harder for network policy-management (or industry regulation) as mashups are by their nature hard to pigeon-hole. 
• Every export implicitly also means an import from the other side - sometimes into "product", but in many ways horizontal apps such as SAP and Saleforce are turning into full import platforms in their own right, especially where they support multiple communications integrations.

I think that 2016 is going to see some epic battles between import and export philosophies for communications in general, and WebRTC in particular. The shift of communications to the cloud facilitates both directions. Worth watching very closely indeed.

Stop Press: just as I was about to publish, I read that Facebook is trialling Uber-in-Messenger, as part of its "Transportation on Messenger" initiative. This is a great example of an import model, and "messaging as a platform". Details are here.

Cisco and Ericsson: Will the Enterprise move to Private IMS & Cellular?

A lot has been written already about the ramifications of the wide-ranging Cisco / Ericsson deal. Most industry analysts and other observers have already come up with assessments of areas of impact, effects on other vendors (eg Juniper), and the implications for various telco-network technologies such as SDN / NFV.

A fair amount of output has been interpreting the “official line” from the two vendors’ press releases and briefings, which have been a little thin on exact details of how the collaboration will evolve. Light Reading has collated a good set of opinions here, for example.

So I'm going to speculate a little - and consider what is not being mentioned so far. This is a blog post about "what might happen" - there's a lot of variables, complexity and execution risk. Caveat lector.


The story so far: Selling & integrating IP gear & cloud platforms for telcos

Looking around the web, it seems that there’s a roughly 80/20 split between analysis of telco-area implications vs. enterprise. This is unsurprising, given the early focus areas announced - the Ericsson CEO says “Initially the partnership will focus on SPs” in the release. Also, the bulk of observers who cover both companies are strongly focused on SP networks.

But my sense is that a few angles have been overlooked, especially about enterprise. I'll highlight a line in the slide-deck the companies used: "Creating leadership to address converging telco and enterprise domains".

The assumption among most people seems to be that "convergence" here is viewed only in one direction. It's assumed to mean an increasing role for telcos in managing enterprise networks and communications functions. And yes, a lot is about combined sales to/through telcos. Cisco gets to sell IP gear via Ericsson's huge SP-focused services and integration teams, and better integrate its products with the OSS/BSS domain. Going forward, the partnership can allow better network/service coverage in corporate offices, or enable assorted business cloud and IoT offers to be provided by telecom operators.

Yet "convergence" occurs when two trends meet in the middle. There's another side here: enterprises starting to adopt or manage telco-type networks and capabilities. 

But what's in it for the enterprise?

So what does Ericsson have, that Cisco can sell / add value to via its enterprise channels? And what new combined products might come from both firms' R&D labs that could be of interest beyond the reach of telcos, sold directly into the corporate domain?

I have sensed for a while that Ericsson wanted more direct business with enterprises and governments - it recognises that its addressable market for telco capex/opex (whether hardware or managed services) is limited by telcos' own growth difficulties, as well as competition from Huawei, wariness of IT players like Oracle, and the move to software-based (and sometimes open-source) infrastructure. 

It was no coincidence that last year's analyst conference in Stockholm was held partly in Volvo's premises. Or in another area I watch closely, that its WebRTC activities have involved things like online banking (see here) without a mention of telcos at all.

It's not just Ericsson. We've also seen other telecom vendors pitch to goverments, city authorities, utilities, transportation companies and so forth. There are private cellular networks intended for railways and mining operations, to e-commerce and cloud propositions, or re-use of billing/charging for utilities and smart city initiatives. Quite a few vendors also sell to "non-telco SPs", ranging from call-centre providers to (ssshhhhh!!!) big Internet firms, as well as amenity-type public WiFi implementors.

So - the question is what the joint Cisco/Ericsson initiatives might be for enterprise. The briefing deck gives some rather vague lines like "comprehensive systems integration, managed services and technical support for enterprises" as well as "cloud and data-centres" which potentially cover a multitude of sins.

Another interesting line is "Networks of the future require new design principles to ensure agility, autonomy, and security". The interesting word there is "autonomy" which means "the right or condition of self-government." For whom, exactly? For telcos, it could mean the freedom to choose between multiple vendors' platform ad 3rd-party VNFs - but I'm not convinced that's a story that Cisco and Ericsson really buy into.

My sense is that actually - and this is probably a medium-term thing rather than immediate - there are three aspects:

• Distributed enterprise cloud platforms. This should be unsurprising given both references in the announcement, and Cisco's data-centre expertise. Ericsson SDN/NFV work could fit in here, although it's not the main focus of this post.
• Private wireless. This includes both WiFi and potentially private cellular networks, indoor, on campuses, and perhaps for large areas or governmental applications.
• Comms, Collaboration & Private IMS. Both partners have a lot of history in voice, messaging and video communications, not just in telcos but also deployed by businesses. Ericsson used to make PBXs but sold to Aastra in 2008. While UC, cloud and collaboration is impacting the traditional PBX/IP-PBX market, that doesn't mean that enterprises want everything delivered "as a service". Cisco & Ericsson can help both telcos' UCaaS propositions - but also help corporations take back control in-house.

It should be noted that the last two points are unlikely to be especially popular with the telecom service provider community, and would thus not be the focus of the initial SP-friendly announcement.


Private Wireless

Together, Cisco and Ericsson have a decent chance of “fixing” indoor mobile coverage, capacity and control for large enterprises. Both have WiFi assets and also small-cell exposure (Cisco especially via its SpiderCloud partnership), but the kicker here is Cisco’s footprint and understanding of the enterprise fixed LAN and security domain. 

There are two angles here:

• Helping mobile operators "reach" deeper into enterprises to allow better in-building cellular coverage, WiFi offload/voice and (in the GSMA's dreams) run corporate wireless data connectivity as a fully-managed service. Print-over-4G....
• Allow enterprises to better manage and run their own mobile infrastructure, most obviously in unlicenced spectrum. This could extend beyond traditional WiFi towards allowing private management of LPWAN (low power networks) for IoT, rather than using Opex-centric services like SigFox's.

Historically, one of the main problems for enterprise pico/femtocells, or use of corporate WiFi for offload and carrier VoIP, has been how these coexist with the corporate-run firewalls and in-house network management and prioritisation. Normally, telco visibility/control ends “outside” a demarcation point. Most enterprises will view outbound VPN tunnels from small cells, or external control of devices on the LAN, as a security risk. Telcos, in turn, are hesitant to offer service guarantees where they have limited ability to measure or manage performance – and will also see security issues. 

There are also various issues with security, privacy and legal liability when using a 3rd-party cloud platform for identity, data processing or storage.

There is a chance here for Cisco and Ericsson to create solutions to all these areas. The short-term headlines will probably be around better in-building cellular (competing with DAS and, implicitly, SpiderCloud) and IMS WiFi-voice support, but the longer-term vision will perhaps include:

• Carrier-managed enterprise WiFi, perhaps in neutral-host mode to support multiple cellular operators' subscribers on the same network
• Private corporate-run LTE-U networks, maybe using Qualcomm's MuLTEfire or something similar, for indoor or campus usage
• Private IoT networks using both unlicenced and licenced spectrum, linked into corporate IT and communications systems directly, rather than via a service provider
• Licenced-band cellular for non-telco organisations with access to cellular spectrum (eg public safety networks, rail/transport systems, maybe smart cities or big oil/mining companies in remote areas)
• (Perhaps, depending on regulation) ways to enable "corporate MVNOs" 

This is all pretty speculative - and it may be that some of these concepts are a long way off, and perhaps not even fully-considered by Ericsson and Cisco themselves. (Get in touch if you'd like me to run a brainstorm workshop, guys!)
 
 
Comms, Collaboration & Private IMS

Absent from the announcement was any clear reference to communications: UC/UCaaS, IMS, VoLTE, WebEx, Spark, WebRTC and so forth are, to me, elephants in the room.
 

Predictable things we'll likely see include various Cisco-to-Ericsson moves, around UCaaS and WebEX linked to Ericsson's IMS. But I think that's only part of the story that will emerge.

 

Let's go back to that term "autonomy" from above. 

 

It's easier to get seduced by the idea that enterprises (and small businesses) want to get rid of their old on-premise phone systems, recognise their employees are mobile-first and BYOD-minded, and shift to some form of UCaaS platform linked to a telco network and number. Yet on the ground, plenty of enterprises either want to keep control of their own communications system, or are using 3rd-party Internet-based tools like Slack, rather than an SP's integrated proposition. 

 

I don't think that's going to change - many businesses prefer to keep hold of their own "phone" system, especially as it becomes part of their messaging or contact-centre or contextual-comms platform. That doesn't mean it has to be a lump of tin, or a proprietary IP-PBX platform for call control - it could be in the cloud, or using standardised software elements. It just doesn't have to be a "per-seat per-month" cost model. 

 

A rather surprising term I’ve heard a few times recently – mostly from folk in the IT/cloud industry – is “enterprise IMS”. It’s not an industry-standard term, but basically, it means that some large businesses want to deploy their own internal IMS-type infrastructures as communications/service platforms. These might be owned outright, managed on-site by third parties, or delivered from multi-tenant clouds in the same fashion as UCaaS today. But I think this area is one of the likely mid-term outcomes of the Ericsson / Cisco deal, if the concept comes to fruition.

Remember - PBX stood for Private Branch Exchange. We should not be surprised if the IP and Mobile equivalent turns out to be the enterprise-owned PIMS, not a "mobile PBX" run as a service in a telco network. 

 

It’s being catalysed by a few things:

• Mobile and BYOD: many employees are using mobile devices for most of their business communications. But most UC/smartphone implementations are still a bit clunky, with varying UIs depending on device and especially iOS vs. Android. Having an enterprise-run IMS (and voice application) would potentially allow the CIO to regain control of the “native dialler” on a phone, especially when connected in-building. There are open questions about numbering, but they may be tractable.
• Cloud / Open-Source IMS: A few years ago, the idea of an enterprise owning an IMS would have been ludicrous, given the costs involved. But now, with virtualisation, cost pressures by telcos wanting cheap VoLTE, the emergence of open-source options like Metaswitch Clearwater, it is becoming much more downward-scalable. PIMS is starting to look like a cost-effective option.
• Applications: Currently pretty much the only useful IMS application is straightforward VoIP/VoLTE phone calls. That isn't enterprise-optimised - it lacks the typical PBX-type functions that are needed. There aren't really telco-IMS contact centre apps, and nonsense like RCS certainly doesn't address enterprise messaging. Having a PIMS/WebEx/Spark combination would be much more interesting. Potentially it could also be run as an operator-hosted service, but I think the real value is where it is owned outright.
• Middleware & APIs: Where this starts getting really interesting is in the creation of integrated apps blending a corporate comms platform, with corporate IT systems. Hooking into existing software platforms for sales or field automation, line of business and so forth. Potentially this is where a combination of a Cisco/Ericsson PIMS + Tropo starts looking interest. (Sidenote: unlike GenBand with Kandy, Ericsson lacks a WebRTC PaaS)

There’s a few other angles that play in here too. Most notably Cisco's earlier partnership with Apple, which I think many have underestimated. It is likely to optimise iPhones & iPads for use with Cisco's security, WiFi and collaboration tools. I can envisage a situation where companies ditch their old desk-phones for Apple i-Devices, either BYOD or company-issued, linked to Cisco communications apps running via an Ericsson PIMS, with outbound SIP/IMS trunks if needed. Potentially this could work with virtual numbers as well - not just for the US where fixed/mobile numbers are indistinguishable, but the rest of the world where mobile numbers are from separate defined ranges. 

Having a corporate-issued mobile number, anchored in a PIMS, would make a lot of difference - ability to use SMS, better fit with assorted apps that use mobile numbers for identity or authentication, porting in/out, maybe even assigning mobile numbers to IoT objects. There's a lot of variables here, and the rules will likely vary by country.

And for a long-range view, consider Apple’s work on virtual / eSIMs added in to this. Telcos might not like the idea of virtual SIMs in phones – but an enterprise, running its own IMS, its own WiFi network, and perhaps having access to LTE-U and maybe even its own mobile network code – may not be so squeamish. There are various types and styles of enterprise MNO and MVNO that can be envisaged here, depending on local regulation, willingness of local operators to wholesale or allow roaming, or even share spectrum. I can even imagine an “enterprise MNO” being run as a managed service by Ericsson.

Who would be impacted by this? Microsoft is at the top of the list, and also the traditional mobile operators’ enterprise units which still make good margins on corporate mobile subscriptions. It also sits against the emerging Google/Android/Telcos/BroadSoft/Switch enterprise ecosystem. Avaya is left looking a bit lonely here (although it also works with Google), as are the smaller UC players like Shoretel. It possibly even makes the bizarre Mitel/Mavenir acquisition look more sensible in hindsight, although that’s still pretty baffling.

The interesting question is whether Cisco and Ericsson have actually looked closely at what they might be catalysing – or whether they are themselves likely to be as surprised by the direction of travel. Obviously there are lots of questions about execution that come first, but if things go well, there could be a game-changer afoot.

(None of this is entirely new as a concept. About 10 years ago, I did consulting for a company called Zynetix (later bought by Sonus Networks) that sold enterprise-grade cellular-core MSCs that linked to PBXs. They could allow businesses to run private mobile networks, especially when linked to pico/femtocells running in “guard band” spectrum in the UK. However it was perhaps ahead of its time, hampered by some of the practicalities such as spectrum/radio limitations, needing clunky user-experience hacks like manually selecting different networks).

Conclusion

The bottom line is this: the notion that ALL enterprises will outsource the bulk of their internal networking or communications functions, especially to telecoms service providers, is a comforting myth. Yes, some will - hence the rise of UCaaS for mid-market businesses, and telco-managed WiFi in places like airports or sports stadia.

But that is only part of the story.  

Some enterprises will want to continue managing networks and communications in-house (whether on-premise or in a private cloud). This will ideally expand to include aspects of mobile networks/services where possible. Expect PIMS, better WiFi, PLWPAN and maybe PLTE and PMVNO models. Others will want to outsource these functions to IT-type service providers like IBM, rather than telcos.

Potentially, Cisco+Ericsson (with a side-order of Apple) can facilitate all these different paths to the user. This might not be popular among traditional telcos, but in my view the trend is inevitable. Enterprises will re-assert their control (and sometimes ownership) of wireless/mobile networks and communications platforms, especially as they become more-integrated with business processes and applications. 

There's a lot of reasons why this partnership might fail to bear fruit. But a lack of potential exciting and disruptive opportunities in enterprise isn't one of them.

WebRTC Delamination: shifting vendor roles, and recent moves from Ericsson, Temasys, Cisco, Tokbox & Mozilla

One of the major themes I address in my current research on voice and video / WebRTC trends is one I call "delamination". It's the opposite of vertical integration - the carving out of thin, narrow layers of services or products, in areas where companies have particular skill, focus or market reach.

It might be provision of a particular bit of client-side software, an effective hosted TURN server, an "enabler" of some kind, a particular security or authentication element, an especially-scalable virtualised network function, testing or analytical product, and so forth.

In a design-led approach to communications, this means that developers have both "raw ingredients" to create their own "recipes", as well as broad array of partly-prepared and pre-processed garnishes and side-dishes.

To continue the food analogy, if you really like salads, you can:

• Plant & grow your own lettuces & make your own salad
• Plant your lettuces but pay someone else to cultivate them
• Buy lettuces from a farmer at the farm
• Buy lettuces transported to a local market
• Buy lettuces from your supermarket
• Buy lettuce leaves from your supermarket
• Buy chopped & prepared salad from your supermarket
• Buy salad in a restaurant
• Share someone else's salad
• Watch someone else eating salad on YouTube
• Subscribe to the Salad Channel

A similar approach is now applying to WebRTC (and to voice/video capabilities more generally). Developers - and these include intermediate developers like in-house groups at vendors and telcos - have a whole array of choices. They can build applications and services from scratch, use commercial or open-source software elements, host software internally or in the cloud - or use a third-party platform, and so on.

(This is one of the reasons it's so hard to answer the question "what's the $ market size for WebRTC?" - you can define it at any level you like, and there's potential for rampant double-counting if you include the whole value chain).

Now all this is nice in theory... but is it actually happening, and at "industrial scale"?

A few recent developments suggest that it is, indeed happening in a very meaningful sense:

• Platform provider Temasys has announced a commercial version of its WebRTC plug-ins for IE and Safari browsers, with extra "enterprise-grade" support, intended for major software developers wanting to do full-scale deployments to business users.
• Mozilla is working with WebRTC platform provider Tokbox to embed communications capabilities directly into the browser as "Firefox Hello". Its platform has hundreds of millions of users.
• Cisco has open-sourced its H.264 implementation for use in WebRTC applications, and it too has been adopted in Firefox.
• Ericsson has open-sourced its Bowser browser and OpenWebRTC client framework. This is really important both in terms of "big company delamination", and because it involves a rare step outside the telco/IMS domain for Ericsson with WebRTC. (Differentiating it from rivals ALU, Huawei & Nokia Networks, from which I've only heard about IMS use-cases for WebRTC)
• Apparently, Ericsson's OpenWebRTC also uses Cisco H.264 (thanks Victor!)

[Disclosures - many companies quoted here are Disruptive Analysis clients for research and/or advisory work]

There are plenty of other examples too, but I'm highlighting these to illustrate that the concept is now becoming mainstream, and not just by small developers but also accepted and perpetuated by major players. This is likely to further accelerate market development - and also highlights the need for telcos and enterprise vendors to occasionally swallow their pride and use 3rd-party software or services where it makes sense. Only the very largest and most aggressive companies will be able to develop everything in-house, without using at least one other provider's platform. And for telcos, a vendor IMS box is not, on its own, a complete platform.